Derby. Epsom (no road)

In the same article that you mention Gus, Johnny Murtagh is quoted from a couple of years ago - just before he won the Oaks - as saying "if your horse is bred to say the trip it's probably too slow"

Personally it's a coin toss for me whether Dawn Approach will or won't stay and the odds reflect that. If Magician lines up I can see him being available around 7/4 on the day and given the 50/50 (IMO) "Will he stay ?" question, that would be sufficient value to tempt me back in.
 
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I understand what Murtagh meant as horses bred to win Derbies are usually slow boats that have to go hurdling to win a race (ghastly game).The point of the Derby is to find the best of the ones that got the stamina and (freakishly) the speed too. They are always bred to stay.
 
gus said:
The Derby is run over the stiffest 12f around. If you've ever stood in the stands and looked across at the uphill first 6f, you'll understand why. Contrary to myth, non-stayers don't win it, especially if the pace is a true one. Those who argue Sir Ivor won it despite not getting the trip conveniently ignore the fact that he subsequently won the Washington DC International over the same distance.
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12f around Maryland would hardly be a proper stamina test though, and Lester himself said Sir Ivor didn't really stay the Derby trip. Pace and ground will also have a bearing.
New Approach certainly went into the race with a less convincing profile than the current fav ,but saw it out well enough.
 
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New approach dam won the yorkshire oaks amongst other middle distance races.
DA staying is definitely a leap of faith.
 
Camelot's damsire is Kingmambo. A miler who got better horses than he was and horses that stayed 12f.

DA is not bred to stay.
 
New Approach went into the race having been caught in the closing stages of both previous attempts beyond 7f - DA won his Guineas by 5l, pulling away.
 
Camelots Dam stayed 10f. DA dam best placing was over 6f at 2.

I think your in denial. New approach was beaten in the 2 Guineas before the Derby because he wasn't quick enough to win over a mile. He was a middle distance horse .
 
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reet hard said:
New Approach went into the race having been caught in the closing stages of both previous attempts beyond 7f - DA won his Guineas by 5l, pulling away.
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New Approach was beaten by a top class miler in a trip well short of his optimum. By your rationale Zafonic would have been a Derby candidate.
 
Sheikh said:
New approach dam won the yorkshire oaks amongst other middle distance races.
DA staying is definitely a leap of faith.
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They can be quite funny if you confuse the red rose with white, Park Express won the Lancashire Oaks, she was second in the Yorkshire version.
 
Put it this way - Sea the Stars was bred to be a 10f horse and stayed 12f. But it was not his optimum trip.

DA is bred to be a miler and might stay 10f. But a mile will probably be his optimum trip.
 
You're making too much of the Dam sire. His sire is a derby winner by another derby winner called Galileo.

I'll stick my head out and say he'll be so far ahead after 10F the race will be won.

Do Paddy Power pay out after 10F in the derby? :)
 
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reet hard said:
.and by yours, Sea The Stars and Camelot didn't win the Guineas?:lol:
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Sea the Stars won a Guineas because he had a massive class advantage. He had enough of a buffa to be able to run 10lbs below what he was later capable of and still win. Camelot was like Golan - a 12f animal who lucked out in a Guineas full of Group 2/3 horses.
 
No-one can suggest that Dawn Approach is bred to stay a mile and half, but he doesn't have the pedigree to be a top-class miler either does he? As time goes on, racecourse evidence and achievement becomes far more relevant than pedigree imo, and I think he'll get away with it.

Having an EW bet on Galileo Rock though, he's going to relish a mile and a half and further in time.
 
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