Derby. Epsom (no road)

By SCOTT BURTON 6:55PM 28 MAY 2013

FRANKIE DETTORI'S drawn-out saga to return to the saddle could finally reach a conclusion by Friday evening, with the jockey's French agent Herve Naggar expecting France Galop to give him clearance to resume race-riding less than 24 hours before the Investec Derby.

Dettori was due to return last week having served a six-month ban for a positive test for cocaine at Longchamp last September. However, with irregularities having surrounded a recent drugs test, France Galop have yet to relicense the former Godolphin stable jockey, with the BHA reciprocating the French racing authority's decision.

But the end may now be in sight once the results of the rest of a batch of tests return this week.

Naggar said on Tuesday evening: "Christopher Stewart-Moore, Frankie and I met with the medical commission at France Galop today.

"Frankie undertook five tests last week. The first two came back negative and France Galop have accepted Frankie's explanation for the previous discrepancy.

"They have said they expect to be able to clear him to ride in France by Friday evening, but there is a chance the results will all be back on Thursday.

"Whether it is Thursday or Friday, this is really positive news for Frankie."

Whether this will derail Dettori's hopes of riding at Epsom on Saturday remains to be seen.

Declarations for the Investec-backed Classic, in which Dettori is understood to be in line to ride one of Aidan O'Brien's runners, are made at 10am on Thursday. The BHA would need to give special clearance for any Derby riding arrangement to be made after the Thursday deadline.

Earlier on Tuesday, the BHA press office tweeted: "BHA has contacted France Galop today. We have been informed that they are not in a position to provide any further information at present.

"France Galop have stressed that they will make a communication regarding Frankie Dettori as soon as they are in a position to do so."
 
Dawn Appeoach didn't seem to be coming to the end of his stamina in the Guineas and I think 10f would be no problem. He seems to have class in abundance and if the Derby isn't top quality I can see his class getting him home the last 2f. That said, I wouldn't say it's an Even money chance, I think backing the Dante winner w/o the Fav is the bet, can't see him out of the 3 / 4.
 
That he loves messing with people's heads in Derby week?

Seriously though, it is sensible. If he fails to stay the Derby trip, a mile campaign might be an option (although 10f still favourite) so it would be silly to skimp the entry fee to deny oneself of the option.
 
Well it worked for Rip van Winkle. And Rio de la Plata ran in G1 races over a mile after the Derby. And Dubawi, Dubai Millenium, Oratorio, Refuse to Bend, Hawk Wing and many others were all milers, who either ran in the Sussex, Moulin, Jean Prat or should have.
 
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The closer we get to the race the less I fancy the favourite. He might still do a Hawk Wing in the sense that HW would have been a clear winner had High Chaparral not been out of sight ahead of him and then we'd all have been saying HW stayed 12f standing on his head.

It's maybe a poor enough renewal for DA to win in spite of not truly staying but he's a very iffy even money shot.

I intend to look at the race in more detail this evening but I suspect I'll end up looking away from Dawn Approach for the winner.
 
Desert Orchid said:
The closer we get to the race the less I fancy the favourite. He might still do a Hawk Wing in the sense that HW would have been a clear winner had High Chaparral not been out of sight ahead of him and then we'd all have been saying HW stayed 12f standing on his head.

It's maybe a poor enough renewal for DA to win in spite of not truly staying but he's a very iffy even money shot.

I intend to look at the race in more detail this evening but I suspect I'll end up looking away from Dawn Approach for the winner.
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we are back to this "staying " talk again;)..Hawk Wing stayed 12f..no problem..he stayed it better than the horse in 3rd..but not as well as the winner

Dawn Approach will also stay with no problem whatsover..to say he won't is illogical..the issue is..will something stay better than him

Horses laden with stamina in their pedigree usually plod on in the Derby and end up being Leger horses..so the search for stamina pedigrees is not the answer imo...the answer is what potentially has the ability to out run DA...not what has a pedigree slow enough to be winning next years Ascot Gold Cup:)
 
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EC1 said:
we are back to this "staying " talk again;)..Hawk Wing stayed 12f..no problem..he stayed it better than the horse in 3rd..but not as well as the winner

Dawn Approach will also stay with no problem whatsover..to say he won't is illogical..the issue is..will something stay better than him

Horses laden with stamina in their pedigree usually plod on in the Derby and end up being Leger horses..so the search for stamina pedigrees is not the answer imo...the answer is what potentially has the ability to out run DA...not what has a pedigree slow enough to be winning next years Ascot Gold Cup:)
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F&cking pedant :lol:
 
Of course speed and stamina are not mutually exclusive... It’s possible to have both. The blend is what determines which horses are right for which races.
 
Desert Orchid said:
F&cking pedant :lol:
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;)

its true though

people said El Gran Senor didn't stay in the Derby..which is daft..he just didn't stay as well as Secreto on the day

there isn't some magic line a horse has to cross to prove stamina..stamina is solely reliant on what you run against at that trip

if one year not one horse was at their best at 12f in the Derby..there would still be a winner and people would say the winner "stayed"...when in fact it won by default as nowt else was at its best at that trip..even the winner
 
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I think anyone with more than one brain cell knows that, though, don't you?

I think we're talking broad general perceptions, in the same way we talk about footballers only having one foot. You only need to look at the clowns to see they have two feet.
 
EC1 said:
;)

its true though

people said El Gran Senor didn't stay in the Derby..which is daft..he just didn't stay as well as Secreto on the day

there isn't some magic line a horse has to cross to prove stamina..stamina is solely reliant on what you run against at that trip

if one year not one horse was at their best at 12f in the Derby..there would still be a winner and people would say the winner "stayed"...when in fact it won by default as nowt else was at its best at that trip..even the winner
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I disagree.

You seem to be mistaking stamina (or endurance) with the ability of somebody to actually cover distance.

Stamina or endurance in athletes can be used to describe how long an athlete can perform at (or close to) their aerobic or lactate threshold.

We could test this in a horse using a heart rate monitor. A cyclist can assess their stamina using a power meter.

So if you don't think that Dawn Approach will stay, you are saying that you don't think that he can operate at (or close to) his aerobic threshold for 1m4f.

If that is the case, it is likely that he is a horse that has a higher anaerobic threshold relative to his opponents.

I hope that makes sense. But to me, "stamina" is a quality, and saying a horse "stays" a mile or whatever does mean something.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I think anyone with more than one brain cell knows that, though, don't you?

I think we're talking broad general perceptions, in the same way we talk about footballers only having one foot. You only need to look at the clowns to see they have two feet.
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no i don't think everyone does know that...i think some people draw a line in a race and say..that stayed that didn't..in El Gran Senors case the line was drawn a head behind Secreto..which to me was a nonsense

Bar

Fair point..i think i understand you...the measurement of ratings at one distance or another should tell you whether that horse has operated at his best

i just think the stayed thing is said in too black and white terms

its like when horses get older and win at further...they win at further because they are a bit slower but are still better than the 12f horses they are now meeting...if they had to race against the same class of horse at 12f as they had been competing in at say 8f in their early career, they would lose and be called non stayers...which at that level they were
 
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Magician's absence at least means we'll be spared the dog's dinner that we had in Sea The Stars' year when the pace was steady in an attempt to benefit Rip Van Winkle. There should be a cracking gallop on Saturday now which is how it should be. Libertarian could run a very big race if he can hang on to the coat tails of those up front.
 
My position with DA was that if he take it that he's a 132/3 beast he could probably get away with a 126/7 mark and win this Derby.

Problem is the Irish Guineas didn't do the form any good so chances are he's a 130ish animal and 124/5 is unlikely to be enough. Unless this renewal turns out as bad as the ones that Camelot and Oath won.
 
gus said:
Magician's absence at least means we'll be spared the dog's dinner that we had in Sea The Stars' year when the pace was steady in an attempt to benefit Rip Van Winkle. There should be a cracking gallop on Saturday now which is how it should be. Libertarian could run a very big race if he can hang on to the coat tails of those up front.
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Underlines the way in which the race will be run to beat DA I think. Magician would probably have to be held up to get the trip like DA, but could not beat DA. They will go hell for leather. Flying the Flag will take them along and one of them (festive cheer possibly) will be nominated to take it up when he folds . The others will be handy and ready to stretch it out.
 
Steve T said:
Dawn Approach didn't seem to be coming to the end of his stamina in the Guineas and I think 10f would be no problem. He seems to have class in abundance and if the Derby isn't top quality I can see his class getting him home the last 2f. That said, I wouldn't say it's an Even money chance, I think backing the Dante winner w/o the Fav is the bet, can't see him out of the 3 / 4.
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I've got a decent amount running onto Libertarian e/w in the w/o Dawn Approach market at 10/1 and really fancy him to run well, a decent 2nd to Dawn Approach will suffice!
 
Aragorn said:
I had a go on this Chopin when he was sold the other day. You can find his last race where he murdered the second from the German guineas by 8l, not Derby winning form but he's been bought by one of the Qatari contingent to run at Epsom, so he'll be there barring injury and I expect to be able trade out of some of my bet as there will be more defections.
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Traded some of my stake back as planned but as its the Derby, I'm gonna put it on something else.

Mars looks over priced to me but I'm not sure he's going to stay. I also think Festive Cheer is being underestimated; he may be one of the last Montjeu Derby runners? Tough betting heat but I'm desperate to take on the fav again. If he wins the Derby he's a truly exceptional colt.
 
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