Derby. Epsom (no road)

Aragorn said:
Traded some of my stake back as planned but as its the Derby, I'm gonna put it on something else.

Mars looks over priced to me but I'm not sure he's going to stay. I also think Festive Cheer is being underestimated; he may be one of the last Montjeu Derby runners? Tough betting heat but I'm desperate to take on the fav again. If he wins the Derby he's a truly exceptional colt.
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Cant see Festive Cheer playing a part myself, Being a Montjeu stamina wouldn't be in doubt but he wasn't able to overhaul Tableaux who Fabre thought not good enough to send over, At Longchamp over a heavy ground 11 furlongs. Personally I would love Dawn Approach to prevail he's an absolute beauty and beast! Win bet on DA and place bet on Battle Of Marengo for me.
 
If I owned or trained Dawn Approach I'd ask the jockey to ride the race like a 10f race and 'win' by as far as possible at that distance, hoping momentum, rather than stamina, kept the horse clear to the line. I think if it's ridden like a normal 12f horse it might struggle to get to the front at all.

I backed Chopin today. I just think that if you take the favourite out it's a p1ss poor renewal and the fact they think this one is good enough even to send over must mean it is good.
 
Most of the field like to lie up near the front and most of them should stay, so for Dawn Approach to get to the lead 3f out, be a few lengths up 2f out and hang on till the line would be very demanding. Can he do it?
 
Given he's a stone better than them, he could maybe get 10 lengths clear. That's what Hawk Wing did. Take High Chaparral out of that Derby and HW would have been a 12 length winner and, who knows, might have been campaigned at that trip from then on...
 
Desert Orchid said:
If I owned or trained Dawn Approach I'd ask the jockey to ride the race like a 10f race and 'win' by as far as possible at that distance, hoping momentum, rather than stamina, kept the horse clear to the line.
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Of course, the down side to this tactic would be fierce criticism that he went too early and would have been a clear winner with more patient tactics.

The horns of a dilemma, as they say.
 
I think the favorite will not be suited by the course and distance.
I dont rate the Guineas as high as I did after the race and I has downgraded from 131 to 127. If he acts and stays winning chance but I think he is better being opposed.


the main rivals
Chopin, good performance in Germany, difficult to rate, interesting one but my feeeling is he will not be good enough.

Libertarian, good run in theDante for one so inexperienced, the form is nothing special and many doubts about him acting in the track.

Ocovango, good pedigree, top class trainer, fine form in France , didnt improve in his alst as much as I expected, ground should not be a problem and can be placed but I dont see him winning.

Galileo Rock, overpriced, lightly raced adn will improve up in distance, interesting long price shot but place chances rather than winning is what I see.

Ballydoyle horses:

Interesting how things were developing last year there,
I dont if it were by design or a plan, but they focused last year in the Henrys and the kept or hide the Montjeus and Galileos.

Battle Of Marengo, solid form, ground will suit and picked by stable jockey,
everyone saying he will stay but some doubts for me on pedigree, the form is quite good but not improving and the add of cheekpieces is surprising.

Festive Cheer, good and interesting profile, makes debut in the hottest maiden in Ireland, then a run on Dundalk, that means he was almost a non runner as 2yo for me, then he goes to France to a good group race, starts favorite in the betting and run a stormer, well backed in last 4 days and by a sire able to produce Derby winners( Motivator, Authorized, Por Moi, Camelot, and Fame and Glory 2nd to STS or St Nicholas Abbey would have been one the favorites in his year),has to improve but has a very good chance.

Mars, talked horse since last year , good turf debut in the Guineas, on jockey bookings bad chance and likely not to stay.

Ruler Of Teh World, good pedigree, Ryan Moore on, I dont rate the form and I think he is too short on what he has done so far.
 
Desert Orchid said:
If I owned or trained Dawn Approach I'd ask the jockey to ride the race like a 10f race and 'win' by as far as possible at that distance, hoping momentum, rather than stamina, kept the horse clear to the line. I think if it's ridden like a normal 12f horse it might struggle to get to the front at all.

I backed Chopin today. I just think that if you take the favourite out it's a p1ss poor renewal and the fact they think this one is good enough even to send over must mean it is good.
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Mister Baileys was ridden exactly like that. It certainly made thrilling viewing.

I'd never crab a Derby field ahead of the race. It's the first time any of them have run at the trip, the pace will be strong and that scenario can often throw up a top horse.
 
Asking a horse to run 10f sectionals over 12f is surely the best way to get him beat. The opposite of that, David Cleary made a good point on RUK yesterday about the dangers of dropping him out to get the trip, how it can lead to complications with trouble in running and having too much to do.

If I was Bolger, I'd suggest sit him in the first 3 or 4, have him ready to go 2f out, and then if he stays, he stays, if he doesn't, he doesn't.
 
davidjohnson said:
Asking a horse to run 10f sectionals over 12f is surely the best way to get him beat.
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I agree. I think the difference is the nature of the Epsom track. If DA runs - not necessarily 10f sectionals but kicks clear four out - the race like a 10f race and builds up a big lead, like Hawk Wing did to those around him, then it could take an exceptional performance - a High Chaparral - to beat him. I think the downhill run to the final furlong would make it more difficult than on a flatter or uphill track for something to catch him. The main reason I'm advocating this tactic is the possible lack of talent in the opposition. He wouldn't get away with it in a strong race.

Chances are it ain't gonna happen anyway.
 
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davidjohnson said:
David Cleary made a good point on RUK yesterday about the dangers of dropping him out to get the trip, how it can lead to complications with trouble in running and having too much to do.
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That's what did for Dancing Brave. Starkey was describing him as "bomb-proof" in the build-up to the race but on the day he rode him as if he had stamina doubts and when he didn't pick up straight away for pressure early in the straight he was in trouble.

Nobody's talking now about Dawn Approach's "flat spot", presumably because he didn't show it at Newmarket, but there's nothing to say it won't return today.
 
There was a thread on betfair forum a few years ago now 'Lester's stories' or something like that. It was a great read. My favourite was where he'd ignored the instructions of some run of the mill trainer, on unsaddling, trainer raves 'You'll never ride for me again'. Lester repsonds 'I might as well pack up now then shall I!'
 
davidjohnson said:
There was a thread on betfair forum a few years ago now 'Lester's stories' or something like that. It was a great read. My favourite was where he'd ignored the instructions of some run of the mill trainer, on unsaddling, trainer raves 'You'll never ride for me again'. Lester repsonds 'I might as well pack up now then shall I!'
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i remember that thread..wonder if its findable...some of it will be fanciful but it was hilarious...we certainly won't see a rider or character like him again..a true legend
 
davidjohnson said:
There was a thread on betfair forum a few years ago now 'Lester's stories' or something like that. It was a great read. My favourite was where he'd ignored the instructions of some run of the mill trainer, on unsaddling, trainer raves 'You'll never ride for me again'. Lester repsonds 'I might as well pack up now then shall I!'
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Snowy Wainwright, I think. York, 1975, after Music Boy was beaten in a two-year-old race at the Dante Meeting.
 
Even taking into account the dolling out, the times were softer than the official going suggests they should have been. Timeform called it soft.

I'd speculate more like good to soft today, but it can dry out quickly. Kazzia was 2.44.57, High Chaparral 2.39.45.
 
davidjohnson said:
Even taking into account the dolling out, the times were softer than the official going suggests they should have been. Timeform called it soft.

I'd speculate more like good to soft today, but it can dry out quickly. Kazzia was 2.44.57, High Chaparral 2.39.45.
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My going allowance was 0.40 seconds per furlong, which is more soft than good to soft.

It does dry out extremely quickly and it will be good by four o'clock.
 
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