Election 2024

The Lib Dems are trying to capitalise on the rejoin the E.U agenda I see. I guess they can pick up some votes on this. Fair play to them.

They were talking about immigration earlier on LBC. Some people seem to use the fact that immigration has risen since we left the E. U, as the reason we should still be in the E. U.

This is a misinterpretation of the situation though.

Because many of the people coming from around the world are actually Ukrainian refugees or British passport holders being persecuted from Hong Kong. They weren't just economic migrants. These people desperately needed to leave their lands, so I'm glad they have come over, as they needed it more than anybody.

I get the fact leaving the E. U has had a detrimental impact on the overall national economy. I really do.

But if we were still in the E. U, the net migration figures would be in the millions now.. I. E they would be even higher, because the people from the rest of the world would have come anyway, because of war and oppression, and the U. K would still have people piling in from all over Europe.

I don't seek to offend anyone here, and I know this is a sensative issue. I'm not against anybody, but like most, I recognise the general consensus that we are a relatively small place and need to keep an eye on the numbers.

I still say remainers are a much nicer bunch of people to have round for Sunday lunch by the way, but I just wanted to make the above point anyway.
 
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It's a myth that Brexit was all about immigration. There plenty of sound reasons for us to separate fom that club,and most still obtain today.
Imo,we should share what we have with the rest of this planet,and it would probably be a better place for it.
 
I think it was a factor, just one factor, but an important one nevertheless.

I voted remain though, so I'm probably not the best person to ask.
 
reet hard said:
It's a myth that Brexit was all about immigration. There plenty of sound reasons for us to separate fom that club,and most still obtain today.
Imo,we should share what we have with the rest of this planet,and it would probably be a better place for it.
Click to expand...
You may argue that it's a myth but immigration was the main reason lots of people voted to leave.
 
It was the main factor for me in voting for Brexit (btw I think I’m still a relatively nice person to invite round for Sunday lunch if you’re asking!). I do worry about the small size of the country and the impact the growing numbers if having on it. I’m not talking about being desperately in need, escaping persecution. I’m talking about the endless single male dense groups who appear and their intent is not always a positive one to come here and work but rather tap in to what is an overly generous benefit system.

The overloading on public services is blindingly obvious. Our local doctors surgery which in the past was second to none cannot cope. Like many others my longed for neurological appointment for crippling migraines has been pushed back time and time again. I have not seen a dentist in over five years and my mother had to pull her own tooth out! She’s 79! It is too many people that is crippling the NHS. The massive need for new housing...why? Because there are too many people and we are wiping out huge chunks of green belt. The same is happening in schools and it’s going to be exacerbated when Starmer gets his way with the VAT on private schools as the bulk of those parents will not be able to afford what should be a choice (I was privately educated and make no apology for it. My parents and grandparents sacrificed a huge amount to send me and I am massively grateful.).

My own feeling on the EU is that it became more than it was supposed to be. Didn’t we join the Common Market which was an eminently sensible decision. The add-ons that came later with an unelected group determining laws across a very diverse swath of lands were not. You cannot expect one size fits all.

Personally I’m disillusioned with the whole berludy lot of them. I cannot stand all the bitching and back stabbing that goes on in every party, simply because they want to get the top job. They are all the same and have lost sight of their purpose. I have always voted as I felt as a woman, I should honour those suffragettes who made my vote possible. But it’s getting harder and harder.
 
A fringe Party like Reform on the right or George Galloway on the Left often does best in local Council or by-elections which are often vehicles for protest votes.

The problem for the Conservatives here is many right-wing Tories feel the general election is already lost so they'd rather protest against their own Party by voting Reform and make a real statement than stay loyal and slightly mitigate a catastrophic defeat into a merely heavy one.
 
Don’t forget, private schools don’t have to pass on the VAT rise in its entirety. They should behave like any other business, and seek to maintain customers any way they can.

Given that their charitable status is one huge abuse of taxpayers’ money, I’m delighted Labour are addressing this overdue anomaly.

And I met loads of Brexit voters, who admitted that immigration was their line in the sand. I would also ask those that had voted Brexit “to restore our sovereignty”, what did this actually mean. It often meant immigration and - I kid you not - a few moans about “straight” bananas.
 
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I bel]eve the whole principle of government from afar is abhorrent, though we''ve imposed it on plenty in the past.
 
The 'sovereignty' thing was indeed partly about immigration and partly about not being 'governed' by Brussels and/or Strasbourg, both of which were minor issues weaponised by the Brexiteers.

And don't forget, a lot of fence-sitters at the time were swayed by the lie that hundreds of millions of pounds per week saved by not being in the EU would be spent directly on the NHS. Who wouldn't vote for that. So, quite a lot of leave voters actually did so with a view to saving the NHS.

It was all a blatant lie.

My brother who lives in London voted leave but not for any of the above reasons. He is a deep thinker - far too deep the rest of the family believe - and very widely read.

He read all the articles in the 'intelligent' press and economic papers and felt there was enough of an argument for us to have the chance to go it alone and prosper independently.

He was up last weekend and talked about what a political and economic shambles Brexit has been. He didn't say he regretted his vote, just that the processes were in the hands of incompetents.

Probably sums it up.
 
Ian_Davies said:
With 25 days to go to Polling Day the betting is virtually unchanged but the rolling updates BBC Tracker Poll Of Polls suggests things are getting even worse for the Conservatives....

Most Seats
Labour 1.03
Conservatives 48
Reform UK 85

Overall Majority
Labour 1.06
No Overall Majority 21
Conservatives 85
Reform UK 200

Conservatives to lose 201+ Seats: 1.17

Source: "The Machine"

Latest (8th June) BBC Poll Tracker
Labour 44%
Conservatives 22%
Reform UK 13%
Liberal Democrats 10%
Green 6%

Electoral Calculus User-Defined
Seats Prediction Based On Above
Labour 509
Conservatives 58
Liberal Democrats 46
Green 2
Reform UK 0

Labour Majority: 368
Click to expand...

With 23 days to go to Polling Day, the betting is virtually unchanged, but the rolling updates BBC Tracker Poll Of Polls suggests Reform UK are advancing and may take four seats. Still looking grim for the Conservatives....

Most Seats
Labour 1.02
Conservatives 60
Reform UK 100

Overall Majority
Labour 1.06
No Overall Majority 20
Conservatives 95
Reform UK 220

Conservatives to lose 201+ Seats: 1.13

Source: "The Machine"

Latest (11th June) BBC Poll Tracker
Labour 44%
Conservatives 22%
Reform UK 14%
Liberal Democrats 10%
Green 6%

Electoral Calculus User-Defined
Seats Prediction Based On Above
Labour 502
Conservatives 60
Liberal Democrats 45
Reform UK 4
Green 2

Labour Majority: 368
 
jinnyj said:
It was the main factor for me in voting for Brexit (btw I think I’m still a relatively nice person to invite round for Sunday lunch if you’re asking!). I do worry about the small size of the country and the impact the growing numbers if having on it. I’m not talking about being desperately in need, escaping persecution. I’m talking about the endless single male dense groups who appear and their intent is not always a positive one to come here and work but rather tap in to what is an overly generous benefit system.

The overloading on public services is blindingly obvious. Our local doctors surgery which in the past was second to none cannot cope. Like many others my longed for neurological appointment for crippling migraines has been pushed back time and time again. I have not seen a dentist in over five years and my mother had to pull her own tooth out! She’s 79! It is too many people that is crippling the NHS. The massive need for new housing...why? Because there are too many people and we are wiping out huge chunks of green belt. The same is happening in schools and it’s going to be exacerbated when Starmer gets his way with the VAT on private schools as the bulk of those parents will not be able to afford what should be a choice (I was privately educated and make no apology for it. My parents and grandparents sacrificed a huge amount to send me and I am massively grateful.).

My own feeling on the EU is that it became more than it was supposed to be. Didn’t we join the Common Market which was an eminently sensible decision. The add-ons that came later with an unelected group determining laws across a very diverse swath of lands were not. You cannot expect one size fits all.

Personally I’m disillusioned with the whole berludy lot of them. I cannot stand all the bitching and back stabbing that goes on in every party, simply because they want to get the top job. They are all the same and have lost sight of their purpose. I have always voted as I felt as a woman, I should honour those suffragettes who made my vote possible. But it’s getting harder and harder.
Click to expand...
Prior to Brexit we were part of the Dublin agreement…
‘The Dublin III Regulation enabled the UK to return some asylum seekers to EU Member States without considering their asylum claims. It also provided a legal route for reuniting separated asylum-seeking family members in the UK. The Regulation will no longer apply in the UK from the end of this year’.
Thanks to Brexit we can no longer return asylum seekers to the country they arrived here from eg France…
 
jinnyj said:
It was the main factor for me in voting for Brexit (btw I think I’m still a relatively nice person to invite round for Sunday lunch if you’re asking!). I do worry about the small size of the country and the impact the growing numbers if having on it. I’m not talking about being desperately in need, escaping persecution. I’m talking about the endless single male dense groups who appear and their intent is not always a positive one to come here and work but rather tap in to what is an overly generous benefit system.

The overloading on public services is blindingly obvious. Our local doctors surgery which in the past was second to none cannot cope. Like many others my longed for neurological appointment for crippling migraines has been pushed back time and time again. I have not seen a dentist in over five years and my mother had to pull her own tooth out! She’s 79! It is too many people that is crippling the NHS. The massive need for new housing...why? Because there are too many people and we are wiping out huge chunks of green belt. The same is happening in schools and it’s going to be exacerbated when Starmer gets his way with the VAT on private schools as the bulk of those parents will not be able to afford what should be a choice (I was privately educated and make no apology for it. My parents and grandparents sacrificed a huge amount to send me and I am massively grateful.).

My own feeling on the EU is that it became more than it was supposed to be. Didn’t we join the Common Market which was an eminently sensible decision. The add-ons that came later with an unelected group determining laws across a very diverse swath of lands were not. You cannot expect one size fits all.

Personally I’m disillusioned with the whole berludy lot of them. I cannot stand all the bitching and back stabbing that goes on in every party, simply because they want to get the top job. They are all the same and have lost sight of their purpose. I have always voted as I felt as a woman, I should honour those suffragettes who made my vote possible. But it’s getting harder and harder.
Click to expand...
The malaise crippling the NHS is more to do with a lack of funding, an overload of management over clinicians and consequent lack of morale amongst staff. When the last labur government was in power there was roughly a 5% increase in funding per year. Under Conservatives the figure has been more like 1.5% over the last 14 years.

Before covid, many NHS clinicians, nurses, doctors were buckling under increased workloads and dropping staff levels. Covid, for many, was the nail in the coffin and NHS staff have voted with their feet. Banging saucepans was not sufficient to keep them in the service.

The unspoken intent of the Conservatives is to see the NHS replaced by a private healthcare system. Look at the cutting of NI rates under the banner of 'Lower Taxes'. I believe Sunak said in his manifesto speech today that they intend to abolish NI payments because it's unfair on those working to suffer under two taxes.

My wife is a nurse and I have witnessed, for years, the stress that has dogged her life and the staff around her: no sleep, trying to do their best to serve their patients under an ever-increasing workload and suffering the guilt and heartache of not being able to treat their patients effectively.

All this so the Conservatives can worship at the altar of free enterprise and the market.

A plague on all their houses.
 
yorick said:
The malaise crippling the NHS is more to do with a lack of funding, an overload of management over clinicians and consequent lack of morale amongst staff. When the last labur government was in power there was roughly a 5% increase in funding per year. Under Conservatives the figure has been more like 1.5% over the last 14 years.

Before covid, many NHS clinicians, nurses, doctors were buckling under increased workloads and dropping staff levels. Covid, for many, was the nail in the coffin and NHS staff have voted with their feet. Banging saucepans was not sufficient to keep them in the service.

The unspoken intent of the Conservatives is to see the NHS replaced by a private healthcare system. Look at the cutting of NI rates under the banner of 'Lower Taxes'. I believe Sunak said in his manifesto speech today that they intend to abolish NI payments because it's unfair on those working to suffer under two taxes.

My wife is a nurse and I have witnessed, for years, the stress that has dogged her life and the staff around her: no sleep, trying to do their best to serve their patients under an ever-increasing workload and suffering the guilt and heartache of not being able to treat their patients effectively.

All this so the Conservatives can worship at the altar of free enterprise and the market.

A plague on all their houses.
Click to expand...

(y)

Agree about all the management levels too. I remember being in hospital as a teenager and it looked to me like there was a team of nurses and a ward sister or matron and not much else.

Now there seems to be layer upon layer of managers and administrators.

Going off at a tangent, but a kind of parallel situation, when I started in FE in 1987 the Principal and his depute had a secretary and two office staff and the satellite building where I worked had three office staff.

When I left in 2021 there was the principal, a depute, four assistant principals and an entire room full of admin staff.

Probably the same in many institutions.
 
What I can't understand is why the leave voters thought it was going to turn out any different than it has. All the checks that weren't there before were clearly going to happen plus the long queues at airports. Too many leave voters don't want to admit they were conned. We all live and learn. Just crazy we inflicted everything on ourselves. The Europeans must think we are all basket cases.
 
I was one of a minority that thought there were pros and cons to both, ultimately I voted Remain because I knew it was the only intellectually-sound choice but, as I thought the EU had many short comings, I found it easier to accept the result than many other Remain voters did, some of who seemed to want to ignore the democratic process and set the result aside as an advisory, not a directive, or dilute it into something they called a "Soft Brexit."

In any event subsequent European elections and the 2019 General Election provided further endorsements of the original Leave result - Leave voters stuck to their guns.

Our economy is undoubtedly the worse for it, but I think many Leave voters consider that a price worth paying for the retro feeling it gave them, a vote to feel like you're once again living in the past, even though you aren't and you're worse off.
 
yorick said:
The malaise crippling the NHS is more to do with a lack of funding, an overload of management over clinicians and consequent lack of morale amongst staff. When the last labur government was in power there was roughly a 5% increase in funding per year. Under Conservatives the figure has been more like 1.5% over the last 14 years.

Before covid, many NHS clinicians, nurses, doctors were buckling under increased workloads and dropping staff levels. Covid, for many, was the nail in the coffin and NHS staff have voted with their feet. Banging saucepans was not sufficient to keep them in the service.

The unspoken intent of the Conservatives is to see the NHS replaced by a private healthcare system. Look at the cutting of NI rates under the banner of 'Lower Taxes'. I believe Sunak said in his manifesto speech today that they intend to abolish NI payments because it's unfair on those working to suffer under two taxes.

My wife is a nurse and I have witnessed, for years, the stress that has dogged her life and the staff around her: no sleep, trying to do their best to serve their patients under an ever-increasing workload and suffering the guilt and heartache of not being able to treat their patients effectively.

All this so the Conservatives can worship at the altar of free enterprise and the market.

A plague on all their houses.
Click to expand...
Completely agree, blame the organ grinders,not the monkey.
 
Ian_Davies said:
With 23 days to go to Polling Day, the betting is virtually unchanged, but the rolling updates BBC Tracker Poll Of Polls suggests Reform UK are advancing and may take four seats. Still looking grim for the Conservatives....

Most Seats
Labour 1.02
Conservatives 60
Reform UK 100

Overall Majority
Labour 1.06
No Overall Majority 20
Conservatives 95
Reform UK 220

Conservatives to lose 201+ Seats: 1.13

Source: "The Machine"

Latest (11th June) BBC Poll Tracker
Labour 44%
Conservatives 22%
Reform UK 14%
Liberal Democrats 10%
Green 6%

Electoral Calculus User-Defined
Seats Prediction Based On Above
Labour 502
Conservatives 60
Liberal Democrats 45
Reform UK 4
Green 2

Labour Majority: 348
Click to expand...
With 21 days to go to Polling Day, halfway through the campaign, the best that can be said for the Conservatives is that things aren't getting any worse. But time is starting to run out....

Most Seats
Labour 1.02
Conservatives 55
Reform UK 150

Overall Majority
Labour 1.06
No Overall Majority 22
Conservatives 110
Reform UK 330

Conservatives to lose 201+ Seats: 1.14

Source: "The Machine"

Latest (12th June) BBC Poll Tracker
Labour 43%
Conservatives 22%
Reform UK 14%
Liberal Democrats 10%
Green 6%

Electoral Calculus User-Defined
Seats Prediction Based On Above
Labour 489
Conservatives 72
Liberal Democrats 46
Reform UK 3
Green 2

Labour Majority: 328
 
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Ian_Davies said:
With 21 days to go to Polling Day, halfway through the campaign, the best that can be said for the Conservatives is that things aren't getting any worse. But time is starting to run out....

Most Seats
Labour 1.02
Conservatives 55
Reform UK 150

Overall Majority
Labour 1.06
No Overall Majority 22
Conservatives 110
Reform UK 330

Conservatives to lose 201+ Seats: 1.14

Source: "The Machine"

Latest (12th June) BBC Poll Tracker
Labour 43%
Conservatives 22%
Reform UK 14%
Liberal Democrats 10%
Green 6%

Electoral Calculus User-Defined
Seats Prediction Based On Above
Labour 489
Conservatives 72
Liberal Democrats 46
Reform UK 3
Green 2

Labour Majority: 328
Click to expand...
With 20 days to go to Polling Day, despite a YouGov poll putting Reform UK ahead of the Conservatives, the overall picture is that things are not looking quite as catastrophic for the Conservatives, though you might need a microscope to detect it....

Most Seats
Labour 1.02
Conservatives 60
Reform UK 95

Overall Majority
Labour 1.06
No Overall Majority 23
Conservatives 110
Reform UK 150

Conservative Seats
50-99 2.46
100-149 3.4
0-49 5.2
150-199 10

Conservatives to lose 201+ Seats: 1.12

Labour Seats
450-499 2.4
400-449 2.9
350-399 7.2
500+ 13.5

Source: "The Machine"

Latest (13th June) BBC Poll Tracker
Labour 42%
Conservatives 22%
Reform UK 14%
Liberal Democrats 10%
Green 6%

Electoral Calculus User-Defined
Seats Prediction Based On Above
Labour 478
Conservatives 81
Liberal Democrats 48
Reform UK 3
Green 2

Labour Majority: 306
 
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Ian_Davies said:
The world has changed a lot since 1979.

Neither Harold Wilson nor Jim Callaghan were considered anything other than moderate in their day and yet nothing Jeremy Corbyn ever proposed came close to the progressive taxation in that 60s/70s era.

The money is there, alright, it's just it's in the hands of the uber wealthy and taxing the rich to give the poor better public services has gone out of fashion these last 45 years.

Apart from a social democrat pause under Tony Blair/Gordon Brown, it's been a steady march to the right my entire adult lifetime.

But like any piece of elastic, it can only be stretched so far.

Just how much richer do the rich want to be?

Starmer is saying what it takes to get elected and to win big, so a second term is all but assured.

Anyone who can't see that and thinks he's a Tory clone is in for a surprise, I reckon.

Once in power, I reckon Starmer might be the sort of PM John Smith would have been - not a socialist, but more radical than Blair was.

We shall see.
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labour will dance to the tune of the WEF, WHO and NATO. We will own nothing and be happy
 
Colin, do you think the average UK citizen who earns either no income or less than the average income will be better off if Labour win?

I do and I simply can't accept any of this "two cheeks of the same backside" stuff.

To make things better for the poor Labour have to actually win and the reality is that the British electorate showed in 1983 and again in 2019 that they are collectively conservative with a small c by nature and simply don't want a socialist government.

Starmer will end up helping the poor a lot more than Corbyn ever did because he won and could effect change, but Corbyn lost so could do nothing.
 
Ian_Davies said:
Colin, do you think the average UK citizen who earns either no income or less than the average income will be better off if Labour win?

I do and I simply can't accept any of this "two cheeks of the same backside" stuff.

To make things better for the poor Labour have to actually win and the reality is that the British electorate showed in 1983 and again in 2019 that they are collectively conservative with a small c by nature and simply don't want a socialist government.

Starmer will end up helping the poor a lot more than Corbyn ever did because he won and could effect change, but Corbyn lost so could do nothing.
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The same Starmer who stated when he was head of public prosecutions that there was not enough evidence to prosecute Saville? The same guy who says he would rather be in Davos that in uk office?
 
I don't see either of those things as relevant - for me the bottom line is that, though I was no fan of him, Blair did more for the disadvantaged than Foot because he won power and I would make the same prediction vis a vis Starmer and Corbyn.

Game of opinions, though.
 
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