Election 2024

I noticed a lot of horseshit on the streets on my way to hospital yesterday, we pass by Regent's Park barracks.

I thought it was something to do with the general election but it must have been practice for today’s Trooping Of The Colour.
 
Ian_Davies said:
With 20 days to go to Polling Day, despite a YouGov poll putting Reform UK ahead of the Conservatives, the overall picture is that things are not looking quite as catastrophic for the Conservatives, though you might need a microscope to detect it....

Most Seats
Labour 1.02
Conservatives 60
Reform UK 95

Overall Majority
Labour 1.06
No Overall Majority 23
Conservatives 110
Reform UK 150

Conservative Seats
50-99 2.46
100-149 3.4
0-49 5.2
150-199 10

Conservatives to lose 201+ Seats: 1.12

Labour Seats
450-499 2.4
400-449 2.9
350-399 7.2
500+ 13.5

Source: "The Machine"

Latest (13th June) BBC Poll Tracker
Labour 42%
Conservatives 22%
Reform UK 14%
Liberal Democrats 10%
Green 6%

Electoral Calculus User-Defined
Seats Prediction Based On Above
Labour 478
Conservatives 81
Liberal Democrats 48
Reform UK 3
Green 2

Labour Majority: 306
Click to expand...
So, with 18 days to go to Polling Day, and the advent of some new polls as older polls drop out of the equation, things have suddenly got sharply even worse for the Conservatives....

Most Seats
Labour 1.02
Conservatives 60
Reform UK 110

Overall Majority
Labour 1.06
No Overall Majority 24
Conservatives 110
Reform UK 180

Conservative Seats
50-99 2.28
100-149 3.8
0-49 5.9
150-199 10

Conservatives to lose 201+ Seats: 1.13

Labour Seats
450-499 2.36
400-449 2.88
350-399 8.4
500+ 14.5

Source: "The Machine"

Latest (14th June) BBC Poll Tracker
Labour 42%
Conservatives 21%
Reform UK 15%
Liberal Democrats 11%
Green 6%

Electoral Calculus User-Defined
Seats Prediction Based On Above
Labour 484
Conservatives 60
Liberal Democrats 56
Reform UK 3
Green 2

Labour Majority: 318
 
I'm not a huge fan of Ms Kuenssberg but this is an interesting take on (and takedown of) Farage.

www.bbc.co.uk

Laura Kuenssberg: What does Reform UK leader Nigel Farage really want?

Why is a man who has failed to get elected to Parliament seven times causing panic in Tory ranks?
www.bbc.co.uk

Anyone seriously considering voting for him should benefit from watching ' Who Is Nigel Farage' on the Led By Donkeys YouTube channel.
 
I see that since Labour announced they intend to charge VAT on private school fees, that the number opting to pay these fees has actually increased and, also, further private schools have actually increased!! Who would have thought it.....the Mail and Telegraph telling porkies! Methinks the flood of extra pupils to our state schools may be somewhat less than a tiny trickle:) .
 
I went to a 40 year reunion at my old school yesterday and had a berludy amazing day! Can’t believe it was that long ago. I rallied a fair few via Facebook and it was great to catch up with them.
I absolutely loved being there (Cheltenham College) and even then knew what a huge privilege it was. The facilities were superb (even more so now) as was the teaching. It was interesting that every one of us there yesterday agreed how much we enjoyed it there. (I was the second intake of girls in the sixth form and one of the first four girls to board there). My parents scrimped and saved to send us there (and both sets of grandparents did the same) and we were not well off by any means (my mother went potato picking several winters so we could get by) and I remember being denied a lot of stuff that kids these days would expect, simply because we couldn’t afford it.
Was it worth it? For me, absolutely.
 
archie said:
I'm not a huge fan of Ms Kuenssberg but this is an interesting take on (and takedown of) Farage.

www.bbc.co.uk

Laura Kuenssberg: What does Reform UK leader Nigel Farage really want?

Why is a man who has failed to get elected to Parliament seven times causing panic in Tory ranks?
www.bbc.co.uk

Anyone seriously considering voting for him should benefit from watching ' Who Is Nigel Farage' on the Led By Donkeys YouTube channel.
Click to expand...
Thanks. Just watched and shared it. Unfortunately I doubt if his followers will bother to watch it. They’re as entrenched in their views as Trump supporters.
 
Desperate Dan said:
I see that since Labour announced they intend to charge VAT on private school fees, that the number opting to pay these fees has actually increased and, also, further private schools have actually increased!! Who would have thought it.....the Mail and Telegraph telling porkies! Methinks the flood of extra pupils to our state schools may be somewhat less than a tiny trickle:) .
Click to expand...
I'm assuming that was in The Guardian!:ROFLMAO:
 
A thought has occurred to me today.

I consider myself a socialist, but will never vote for the labour party due to their stance on independence.

Which also makes me a nationalist.

So does that mean that I'm a national socialist?
 
You know what's coming next, then...

Isn't there a contradiction in wanting independence from the rest of the UK while wanting to be part of an even bigger community?

The whole point of the EU is mutual benefit in unity.

I [personally] have never understood what Scotland has to gain from being independent of the rest of the UK. We are a tiny nation with tiny-minded politicians.

(One of my brothers hasn't spoken to me in over six years because I opposed the SNP and independence.)
 
Desert Orchid said:
You know what's coming next, then...

Isn't there a contradiction in wanting independence from the rest of the UK while wanting to be part of an even bigger community?

The whole point of the EU is mutual benefit in unity.

I [personally] have never understood what Scotland has to gain from being independent of the rest of the UK. We are a tiny nation with tiny-minded politicians.

(One of my brothers hasn't spoken to me in over six years because I opposed the SNP and independence.)
Click to expand...
Yes I guessed that was where you were heading.

I keep things fairly simple in my mind.

On independence from the UK, the way I view it is that Scotland as a whole has never voted in a majority of conservative MPs since 1954. Which in turn means that we have only had a government that we voted for 24 out of the last 69 years. To my mind that indicates a fundamental difference in the political make up of the UK that requires separation to be corrected.

Re the EU, my thoughts are that the rules they carried through were not actually incompatible with sovereignty. I don't feel strongly about immigration other than when people make racist, islamophobic etc etc type comments, which I object to quite a lot.

Eurocrats were no different from the layers of bureaucrats in our own government, from local councils (try getting your councillor to do something the civil servants don't want!!) to holyrood and Westminster.

Which inevitably brings my thoughts to economics which is the biggest thing we've lost - where are all the great trade agreements we were supposed to get? Nowhere to be seen.

I would accept that the same could be argued about the UK, and I have no argument to the contrary - but I stand resolute in my desire for divorce from England.
 
Ian_Davies said:
So, with 18 days to go to Polling Day, and the advent of some new polls as older polls drop out of the equation, things have suddenly got sharply even worse for the Conservatives....

Most Seats
Labour 1.02
Conservatives 60
Reform UK 110

Overall Majority
Labour 1.06
No Overall Majority 24
Conservatives 110
Reform UK 180

Conservative Seats
50-99 2.28
100-149 3.8
0-49 5.9
150-199 10

Conservatives to lose 201+ Seats: 1.13

Labour Seats
450-499 2.36
400-449 2.88
350-399 8.4
500+ 14.5

Source: "The Machine"

Latest (14th June) BBC Poll Tracker
Labour 42%
Conservatives 21%
Reform UK 15%
Liberal Democrats 11%
Green 6%

Electoral Calculus User-Defined
Seats Prediction Based On Above
Labour 484
Conservatives 60
Liberal Democrats 56
Reform UK 3
Green 2

Labour Majority: 318
Click to expand...
17 days to go to Polling Day, and the numbers show little change....

Most Seats
Labour 1.02
Conservatives 50
Reform UK 100

Overall Majority
Labour 1.05
No Overall Majority 26
Conservatives 130
Reform UK 100

Conservative Seats
50-99 2.2
100-149 3.6
0-49 6.6
150-199 10

Conservatives to lose 201+ Seats: 1.12

Labour Seats
450-499 2.34
400-449 2.9
350-399 8.4
500+ 15

Source: "The Machine"

Latest (16th June) BBC Poll Tracker
Labour 42%
Conservatives 21%
Reform UK 15%
Liberal Democrats 11%
Green 6%

Electoral Calculus User-Defined
Seats Prediction Based On Above
Labour 484
Conservatives 60
Liberal Democrats 56
Reform UK 3
Green 2

Labour Majority: 318
 
There is only one way Sunak can turn it around.

And that is to insert into his manifesto a commitment to bring in emergency legislation to force Waitrose to resurrect this scandalously-discontinued line....
 

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The Sun doesn't have anything like the influence it used to have (and likes to imagine it still has).

They like to back the winner, but tbh Starmer doesn't need their endorsement and notably he's made zero attempt to woo Murdoch the way Blair did in 1997.

Labour will regard The Sun backing them as a nice to have, but in the modern online era the dynamic has changed.
 
Oh, sorry, I didn't actually read it.

I used to work in national newspapers, so I'm possibly more aware than most of their reduced relevance in the internet social media era.
 
The historical perceived wisdom is that, in the same way when a football club cops a battering (say five-nil) in a league game, they are likely to lose their next league game too, landslide election winners are assured victory in the following election too.

I am not so sure here - the Tories are unpopular, the vast majority of the electorate now want them out, and are instead voting Reform on the right and Labour and Lib Dems on the centre left.

It's the perfect storm and I think the Tories won't quite manage to retain 100 seats and Labour will have 450+ and a circa 300-seat majority.

But I think that so-called "supermajority" could evaporate entirely in 2029 - I predict the UK, like many European countries will see a further rise in right-wing populism and it will be Starmer v Farage five years' hence.

This 2024-2029 Labour government will need to be a roaring success - far from guaranteed - and leave most voters feeling better off or we really could be heading for a Farage government in 2029, unthinkable though that might be.
 
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