Election 2024

I don't buy into the farage hype. It's look like his popularity is fading and while he will no doubt be in yet another different guise in 5 years time and be a pain in the arse I doubt he will have the influence some think. Its essential labour does improve things for the ordinary joe otherwise populism will rise again due to the way the country has been ground down in the last 14 years while the rich get richer. Not confident things will get better but hopeful.
 
I keep hoping that the more exposure Farage gets the more people will see him for what he is. And he’s certainly getting more than his fair share of exposure.
 
I agree - I don't buy into Farage personally, but clearly others do and Reform continue to rise in many polls I am seeing.

Plus Farage is riding a populist wave which isn't going away in Europe anytime soon.

Dangerous man and it could be the only reason he doesn't end up leader of the Conservative Party is he considers the Tory Party brand too damaged and that he can make Reform the bigger force in the years ahead.
 
I was very close to taking the 20s or 25s it may have been on him being next Conservative leader a couple of months ago.

Like Ian I wouldn't vote for him but can see how it may happen, for Reform or by him becoming Conservative leader.
 
Whats's going on now and what might happen in 2029 resembles what happened in Canada 30+ years ago

From Wikipedia (my highlighting}:

The Reform Party of Canada (French: Parti réformiste du Canada) was a right-wing populist[1][2] and conservative federal political party in Canada that existed under that name from 1987 to 2000. Reform was founded as a Western Canada-based protest movement that eventually became a populist conservative party, with strong Christian right influence and social conservative elements. It was initially motivated by the perceived need for democratic reforms and by profound Western Canadian discontent with the Progressive Conservative Party (PC Party).

Led by its founder Preston Manning throughout its existence, Reform was considered a populist movement that rapidly gained popularity and momentum in Western Canada. In 1989, the party won its first-ever seat in the House of Commons before making a major electoral breakthrough in the 1993 federal election, when it successfully supplanted the PCs as the largest conservative party in Canada. In opposition, the party advocated for spending restraint, tax cuts, restrictions on immigration, and wider reform of Canada's political institutions. The party also generated controversy for statements made by its members on immigration, LGBT issues and Quebec. In the 1997 federal election, the party attempted to make a national breakthrough by running candidates in all provinces and territories. Although they became the Official Opposition, a Liberal victory and disappointment with the lack of Eastern seats led many members to question the future direction of the party.

In an attempt to move beyond its Western Canadian regionalist base and broaden the party's platform in order to encompass ideas from Eastern Canada, the party changed its name to the Canadian Alliance in 2000, which merged with the Progressive Conservative Party in 2003 to form the modern-day Conservative Party of Canada.
en.wikipedia.org

Reform Party of Canada - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
 
15 days to go to Polling Day, and much though I would like to agree with those who say support for Farage is fading, the latest updated poll-of-poll numbers suggest otherwise....

Most Seats
Labour 1.02
Conservatives 60
Reform UK 95

Overall Majority
Labour 1.05
No Overall Majority 27
Reform UK 100
Conservatives 110

Conservative Seats
50-99 2.2
100-149 3.35
0-49 6.4
150-199 12

Conservatives to lose 201+ Seats: 1.11

Labour Seats
450-499 2.28
400-449 2.98
350-399 8.4
500+ 14

Source: "The Machine"

Latest (18th June) BBC Poll Tracker
Labour 41%
Conservatives 21%
Reform UK 16%
Liberal Democrats 11%
Green 6%

Electoral Calculus User-Defined
Seats Prediction Based On Above
Labour 470
Conservatives 71
Liberal Democrats 58
Reform UK 3
Green 2

Labour Majority: 290
 
Ian_Davies said:
15 days to go to Polling Day, and much though I would like to agree with those who say support for Farage is fading, the latest updated poll-of-poll numbers suggest otherwise....

Most Seats
Labour 1.02
Conservatives 60
Reform UK 95

Overall Majority
Labour 1.05
No Overall Majority 27
Reform UK 100
Conservatives 110

Conservative Seats
50-99 2.2
100-149 3.35
0-49 6.4
150-199 12

Conservatives to lose 201+ Seats: 1.11

Labour Seats
450-499 2.28
400-449 2.98
350-399 8.4
500+ 14

Source: "The Machine"

Latest (18th June) BBC Poll Tracker
Labour 41%
Conservatives 21%
Reform UK 16%
Liberal Democrats 11%
Green 6%

Electoral Calculus User-Defined
Seats Prediction Based On Above
Labour 470
Conservatives 71
Liberal Democrats 58
Reform UK 3
Green 2

Labour Majority: 290
Click to expand...
13 (unlucky for some) days to go to Polling Day, and the latest updated poll-of-poll numbers have things getting even worse for the Conservatives as they have the Liberal Democrats now the Official Opposition....

Most Seats
Labour 1.02
Conservatives 75
Reform UK 85

Overall Majority
Labour 1.05
No Overall Majority 28
Reform UK 110
Conservatives 230

Conservative Seats
50-99 2.2
100-149 3.65
0-49 5.8
150-199 10

Conservatives to lose 201+ Seats: 1.11

Labour Seats
450-499 2.22
400-449 2.9
350-399 8.8
500+ 13

Source: "The Machine"

Latest (20th June) BBC Poll Tracker
Labour 41%
Conservatives 20%
Reform UK 16%
Liberal Democrats 11%
Green 6%

Electoral Calculus User-Defined
Seats Prediction Based On Above
Labour 482
Liberal Democrats 60
Conservatives 57
Reform UK 3
Green 2

Labour Majority: 314
 
Still don't buy these figures. It will be the biggest bloody nose in history. There is at least 90 to 100 seats that are very close so could see the tories get 40 to 50 more seats. The tactical voting will have to be very much in play for the tories to go under 120 seats IMHO. Just remember these are just polls, and I'm sure there will be a lot of tory voters in the don't know. Corbyn,two weeks out from the election was not far behind and we know how that worked out. My guess is 38% labour,22% tory, and Liberal Democrats and reform around 14%. How that translates to seats is the great unknown. Much as I will be sitting up watching the results come in hoping a wipe out happens just can't see it.
 
Coach miguel said:
Still don't buy these figures. It will be the biggest bloody nose in history. There is at least 90 to 100 seats that are very close so could see the tories get 40 to 50 more seats. The tactical voting will have to be very much in play for the tories to go under 120 seats IMHO. Just remember these are just polls, and I'm sure there will be a lot of tory voters in the don't know. Corbyn,two weeks out from the election was not far behind and we know how that worked out. My guess is 38% labour,22% tory, and Liberal Democrats and reform around 14%. How that translates to seats is the great unknown. Much as I will be sitting up watching the results come in hoping a wipe out happens just can't see it.
Click to expand...
If you are right, there are good bets for you to be had on the machine where the markets reflect these exhaustive polls and have done for weeks.
 
Nick Taylor, the Reform Party candidate in Norwich says:
"Norwich has always been a fairly low crime city in past decades but it is starting to take on a distinct different colour altogether"

Followed by:
"I'm not suggesting that we wind the clock back but there's a lot to be said for when Britain was the only superpower in the world 150 years ago when our country and empire were run by a bunch of old white men who had plenty of money. They weren't doing it for the money. They were doing it because they wanted to serve their country. Now, I'm not suggesting we should have a cabinet full of old white men but let's not mock old white men who are doing it for the right reason"
 
Last edited:
simmo said:
These election bets are the government under the Tories in a microcosm - grasping for money from any source to line their own pockets and f everyone else.
Click to expand...

That's almost verbatim what Mrs O and I said to each other yesterday. I was visiting the brother today and he said pretty much the same thing too.

Greed, arrogance, self-entitlement; the works.

Rotten to the core.
 
Talk is cheap - lots of cash to be made on the machine for anyone who seriously thinks the polls are wrong/misleading and wants to back their own opinions with their own money.

The machine markets mirror the rolling average of the plethora of polls so, if you're think all this poll data is for the birds, you won't be backing the favourites in any of the lists and therefore should be obtaining what you personally consider to be value.

I personally believe the rolling polls - they are an average, no sensationalist, knee jerk, reaction to one-off outliers here - and polling methods are a lot more sophisticated nowadays.

Time will tell, as it invariably always does.
 
Last edited:
Still fail to see why we pay 600 plus MPs top salaries and pensions to deliberatly lie and mislead voters,in the interest of party politics.
Despite its flaws, the UN seems to function quite well without them.
 
Are they really on top salaries when you look at what many earn in the private sector nowadays?

And do all 650 of them deliberately lie and mislead?

It's the Conservatives - no one else - that have been in power these last 14 years, so I'd at least give some of the alternatives a chance before tarring everyone at Westminster with the same brush.
 
Last edited:
I have been puzzled why Reform is a limited company rather than a conventional political party.
This article explains the set up but not the agenda, looks suspicious to me!
Certainly! Reform UK is indeed structured differently from traditional political parties. It was founded in November 2018 as an “entrepreneurial political start-up.” Unlike most parties, it operates as a limited company rather than a typical unincorporated association. Here are the key points:
  1. Ownership and Leadership:
  2. Distinct Structure:
  3. Policy Focus:
In summary, Reform UK’s unique approach challenges the conventional party structure, emphasizing efficiency and agility while maintaining compliance with electoral regulations. If you have any more questions, feel free to ask! 😊🇬🇧
Click to expand...
 
Ian_Davies said:
Are they really on top salaries when you look at what many earn in the private sector nowadays?

And do all 650 of them deliberately lie and mislead?

It's the Conservatives - no one else - that have been in power these last 14 years, so I'd at least give some of the alternatives a chance before tarring everyone at Westminster with the same brush.
Click to expand...
Name one who doesn't or hasn't.?
 
Name 650 individual instances of literally all 650 current MPs deliberately lying or misleading.

That's my point - it's a very sweeping statement to make.
 
That's because you're expecting me to do all the work!

It was you who basically said they're all liars - instead of expecting me to identify ones that aren't, how about you proving that all 650 of them are?
 
Ian_Davies said:
That's because you're expecting me to do all the work!

It was you who basically said they're all liars - instead of expecting me to identify ones that aren't, how about you proving that all 650 of them are?
Click to expand...
Your task is far easier - yet you're stuck for just one name.
Tells its own story
 
Back
Top