Epsom Derby 2012

edgt said:
Tesio's famous declaration that the thoroughbred exists because of a piece of wood still holds true. I got excited by horse racing at the age of nine after Grundy won in 75. My late father had collected the cigarette cards of Derby winners as a boy and could still list all winners and their breeding as long as he lived. I first got to Epsom in 95, the first saturday Derby. 2000 Gns winners from England, France, and Ireland ran that day as well as all the derby trial winners. Yet they were beaten by a relative unknown who happened to be the only Derby winner who was the son of a Derby winner and Epsom Oaks winner( even if she got it on a disqualification). I remember getting home and telling my father of my experience. To the day he died Lammtara was the best racehorse he witnessed because the horse in his eyes had it all; pedigree, performance, will to win, an unbeaten race record and perhaps the little fact that his yonngest son was there to witness it! The Derby is still the ultimate test of a racehorse. A place where the cream comes to the top. Come June 2 we will have another memory to savour whatever the outcome.
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Nice post edgt and usually I'd agree but there is nothing I'm overexcited about this year; even Camelot. Frankel is casting a rather large shadow over the season though which is probably why I'm struggling to get interested in the 3yo's.
 
Aragorn said:
I'm not overexcited about the Derby.
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I'm very excited. There are at least a handful of really nice colts this year. When a Guineas winner steps up for this it's always a great treat. Not many do the double (Nijinsky, Nashwan, Sea The Stars, of those I've seen) and even when good horses such as El Gran Senor, Dancing Brave and Golan miss out it's still a great treat.
 
I agree with Steve - the Derby is always exciting. It's always a field brimming with potential, and it's this potential which excites, rather than what the field has already achieved.

Of course, often there are runners we already know are top-class, but sometimes the quality isn't obvious without the benefit of hindsight. Celtic Swing's absence meant many weren't too bothered about the Derby in 1995, but we ended up with an amazing champion that year in Lammtarra.
 
...well said. I think it’ll be another cracker this year. There is a fine quality to several of the leading participants that is not yet fully expressed... whoever the winner is will be a fine colt.
 
Would any of you argue with these Official Ratings? Now I'm scared that Nick Mordin might have hit the nail on the head with Astrology so I'm desperately trying to get out of my Main Sequence bet seeing how far behind he is on Official Ratings, Speed Ratings? a different kettle of fish but the Derby is about class and Speed Ratings shouldn't be used in races over 10f anyway.


118 Camelot
118 Astrology
116 Bonfire
111 Noble Mission
107 Thought Worthy
105 Rugged Cross
105 Farhaan
100 Main Sequence
100p Imperial Monarch
100 Mickdaam
 
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All the official ratings so far this year were earned on softer than good ground so are entitled to be set with a "p" after each. These horses are being prepared with June 2 as their first main target so improvement will come from at least some of them.
Taking the ratings literally I assume (for my own opinion) that every point of rating represents one pound weight, so 126 represents 9 stone, the racing weight of Group 1 races. Therefore simply put a Standard rating for a Group 1 horse is 125_126.
Any rating below is thus considered sub standard and vice versa. This I know is simplistic but may be helpful to newcomers. It takes to the end of the season to properly qualify ratings properly as of now they are more a guide of a work in progress than anything else. I remember reading in Pacemaker how The 1980 William Hill Futurity ( now Racing Post Trophy) was considered probably the worst Group1 for 2yos run. Beldale Flutter beat a horse called Shergar!
As an aside I do a little choral singing. At the recent Cork Choral festival competition the adjudicators did not award a winner in three categories; their reason being the choirs were not up to standard for International competition!
Maybe Racing For Change should follow their lead in which case all Epsom derby candidates are running for second place according to the ratings!
 
edgt said:
At the recent Cork Choral festival competition the adjudicators did not award a winner in three categories; their reason being the choirs were not up to standard for International competition!
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A number of years ago, I submitted to my HT a paper detailing reasons for not awarding any pupil 'Head Boy' or 'Head Girl' status, the main thrust of my paper being that none of that year group were good ambassadors for the school and would devalue the excellent contribution to the life of the school by head pupils from previous years. His reply to me (not in writing) was somewhat short of the professional standards I'd have expected of a HT...
 
:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

Camelot must surely come out to a realistic price of 3/1

Please, this is daylight robbery at 8/11.
 
Why?

Because Power has won the Irish 2000 Guineas, with Born To Sea a fast finishing 5th? Or no doubt you base it on the performance of Hermival (favoured by the ground) and Trumpet Major?
 
Give me a break Zenyatta, do you know how close Foxtrot Romeo was to winning that race? if that horse theoretically could challenge Camelot then I think you're in a world of pain.
 
Power apart (who was never at the races), it does nothing for the Guineas' form, so Camelot is hardly going to shorten, is he?
 
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reet hard said:
Power apart (who was never at the races), it does nothing for the Guineas' form, so Camelot is hardly going to shorten, is he?
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The angle to attack Camelot from is will he stay?

There are elements of Bonfire's pedigree that suggest he might stay 12f - the damsire's best two animals both won Group 1's over 12f despite probably being better over shorter - and Manduro is by a stamina influence in Monsun. Equally Kingmambo's presence in Camelot's family must cast some doubt that he'll be fully effective over 12f. Russian Rhythm, Dubai Destination, Henrythenavigator and Divine Proportions were all by Kingmambo out of stamina based stallions and none of them were tried over 12f.
 
Bruce, you said:

Bruce_Savage said:
:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

Camelot must surely come out to a realistic price of 3/1

Please, this is daylight robbery at 8/11.
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This would suggest that you think Camelot should drift after the Irish 2000 Guineas result.

I asked why Camelot should drift in that the race had little to no relevance to Camelot's chances of winning the Derby.

Reet said:

reet hard said:
Power apart (who was never at the races), it does nothing for the Guineas' form, so Camelot is hardly going to shorten, is he?
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I agree with this completely.

You then say:

Bruce_Savage said:
I'm glad someone around here talks sense.
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How does Reet saying the result has no relevance to Camelot and the Derby support your argument that he should drift?

You haven't asnwered my question. Why should Camelot "drift to a realistic price of 3/1"?
 
Euronymous said:
The angle to attack Camelot from is will he stay?
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His Guineas win showed that he has speed, but, at the same time, probably confirmed that he wasn't a miler.

I think you can take that evidence one of two ways:

1. He showed enough speed to win the Guineas at a mile so will be exceptional when he steps up to his correct trip of 10f/12f.

2. He showed enough speed to win the Guineas at a mile so might well not stay when stepped up to what people perceive to be his correct trip.

I think he will, at the very least, get away with the trip in the Derby and I think he will probably be stay fine. You obviously can't be certain that he will until he tries.

I was under the impression (I confess without doing the research myself) that Bonfire's stamina was in question as well. I thought his dam was more of a speed influence.

However, as the old saying goes, if the horse is a definite stayer then it is probably too slow.
 
Light Heavy 14/1 on Betfair for The Derby!

Another Bolger masterclass, string the Parish Hall backers along about this mythical Guineas & Derby double then supplement your Derby horse Light Heavy.
 
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