Epsom Derby 2012
- Thread starter betsmate
- Start date
At that price you've very little to lose. Looks like he'd be useless at handling the track at Epsom though and Noble Mission would be pretty sure to reverse form without the 5lb penalty. That still doesn't look close to getting placed for either of them though.
The one that the market appears to have overlooked is the Aga Khan’s unbeaten Group 2 winner Kesampour. He's well placed for the Derby trip and seemingly goes equally well on soft or good going. If he lines up he'd likely run the best of those at big prices.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
How many Derby winners in the last (say) 30 years have had the speed to win at a mile as a 3yo?
Sea the Stars and I can't think of another.
Sea the Stars and I can't think of another.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
My question is as a 3yo.
Forgot about Nashwan. I may be wrong, but I don't think any other Derby winners in the last 30 years have won a race over a mile after their juvenile season.
Forgot about Nashwan. I may be wrong, but I don't think any other Derby winners in the last 30 years have won a race over a mile after their juvenile season.
Have to have a look. There may well be a handful that have started off at a mile before winning the Derby, but not too many I suppose. New Approach springs to mind as one that nearly achieved it finishing runner up in two Guineas before taking the Derby.
It's not so much that they can't do it it's more that they don't try to. Most go via something like the Dante or a 10 furlong trial in Ireland as a more traditional approach.
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Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Sir Percy
New Approach
Both second in above average Guineas. Sure they didn't win, but the form they showed would have won below average renewals.
edgt
Senior Jockey
Secreto won Gns trial at Phoenix PK 84.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
Thanks everybody.
Not forgetting the one he narrowly beat in the Derby, El Gran Senor, who went on to beat Rainbow Quest in the Irish Derby and had earlier won the 2,000 Guineas.
Agreed Steve - I'm not even sure he'll turn up but if it was soft ground his chances would be enhanced as he looks a thorough stayer to me.
I also backed Kesampour a while back as well - Can;t remember what the price was but again I can probably trade out and lock in a healthy profit.
I'm not overexcited about the Derby.
Zenyatta
At the Start
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- Nov 4, 2011
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I'm not at all excited by the Derby but I am excited about Camelot. Not so much for this race but for the future. Prospects of Frankel/Triple Crown/etc would give the flat season a nice boost.
B
Bruce_Savage
Guest
The question really is did Camelot show "speed" in winning the 2000 Guineas or not?
My assumption is that given the final time and sectionals he hasn't shown anything like the speed to win a true mile contest and therefore doesn't have the same ability on the clock going into the Derby with a mile victory as Sir Percy, New Approach, Nashwan, Kahyasi etc.
If you were to ask Aidan would you ever run Camelot over a mile again he would say no, there's your answer on whether he won a genuine 2000 Guineas.
My assumption is that given the final time and sectionals he hasn't shown anything like the speed to win a true mile contest and therefore doesn't have the same ability on the clock going into the Derby with a mile victory as Sir Percy, New Approach, Nashwan, Kahyasi etc.
If you were to ask Aidan would you ever run Camelot over a mile again he would say no, there's your answer on whether he won a genuine 2000 Guineas.
Zenyatta
At the Start
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- Nov 4, 2011
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- 587
But he has shown the speed to come from the back of the field to win a steadily run Guineas . . . ? Surely a 'true mile contest' would suit a stayer much better than a steadily run affair . . . ?
Everything about the Guineas appears to have been against him, unless that is, as some have suggested, that what he actually wants is not what we think he wants and not what his breeding suggests that he wants. He's won a steadyish run Guineas from the back which should have been against him. He should, therefore, show considerable improvement when he meets a stronger pace at 12f.
Your vendetta against him Bruce is perplexing in that you seem to be adamant that the fact that he won a 'poor' Guineas in a poor time means that he can't win the Derby. In fact, the very opposite is likely to be true. He won the Guineas in a manner which goes against everything that he should be, meaning that he should be considerably better with things in his favour.
B
Bruce_Savage
Guest
There's no vendetta Zenyatta, let's not go down the route of other users in their approach to me but I have put up hard evidence and facts behind my statements rather than idol gossip and suggestions.
There is no denying that what he's beat is questionable with the form bound to be let down Saturday in the Irish 2000 Guineas but what his trainer has done is find an opportunity and grabbed it with both hands a smash n grab if you like.
There's no doubt that Camelot's class got him through the 2000 Guineas I don't think anyone's questioning his class and he may very well be the best three year old we have this year given what's been shown but I wouldn't suggest in the slightest he's the greatest three year old we've seen nor would I suggest his a genuine racehorse yet as he has a lot more aspects to prove which will all unfold on The Downs where I believe he'll be there or there abouts but unable to find a winning touch 2f out.
The think about British Racing is that it allows slow horses to win the major prizes which apart from being deceiving is actually a good initiative allowing a fairer platform.
There is no denying that what he's beat is questionable with the form bound to be let down Saturday in the Irish 2000 Guineas but what his trainer has done is find an opportunity and grabbed it with both hands a smash n grab if you like.
There's no doubt that Camelot's class got him through the 2000 Guineas I don't think anyone's questioning his class and he may very well be the best three year old we have this year given what's been shown but I wouldn't suggest in the slightest he's the greatest three year old we've seen nor would I suggest his a genuine racehorse yet as he has a lot more aspects to prove which will all unfold on The Downs where I believe he'll be there or there abouts but unable to find a winning touch 2f out.
The think about British Racing is that it allows slow horses to win the major prizes which apart from being deceiving is actually a good initiative allowing a fairer platform.
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B
Bruce_Savage
Guest
Oh fecking hell, Graham Rodway has put up Main Sequence :lol:
Might as well start trading off.
Might as well start trading off.
EC1
On a break
no you haven't..you talk quite a lot of bollox actually and don't respond when questioned with anything that looks like sense..as with the Lockinge answer still pending
put some proper debate up ffs ..or give it a rest..i'm bored sick of your nonsense now..really bored sick
B
Bruce_Savage
Guest
Regarding The Lockinge you asked for evidence how Frankel could of produce an excellent time despite needing the run and I showed you a picture of workings around the idea that he did.
Unless you have severe dysfunctional ventral damage then I can't fathom how you don't understand the image put out in front of you?
Regards to Bonfire & Main Sequence I have put up my thoughts and evidences to why both of them should run excellent races instead of taking on Camelot for your money whilst I've done cash on Thomas Chippendale & Appollo so it's by no means a profitable event for me yet but with a Lay on Camelot and bets on Main Sequence/Bonfire I'm sure things will look more positive on the day.
Good luck to you on the race.
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EC1
On a break
as far as i'm concerned if you don't put up how you calculated a fast speed figure for Frankel using the rest of that newbury card the you are just taking the p on here
i'm not responding to any more of your nonsense..either put up the analysis or everyone on here will know for sure you are just a troll with only one aim in mind on the forum.
if that is the case then no one will respond to any more of your posts if they have any sense
Zenyatta
At the Start
- Joined
- Nov 4, 2011
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- 587
The reason I say 'vendetta' Bruce is that the evidence that you have provided completely goes in the face of the conclusion that you draw. There is simply no way that you can be as strongly against Camelot as you are. You can oppose him at the price on value terms but I think it is impossible to dismiss his chance in the manner that you have done.
edgt
Senior Jockey
Tesio's famous declaration that the thoroughbred exists because of a piece of wood still holds true. I got excited by horse racing at the age of nine after Grundy won in 75. My late father had collected the cigarette cards of Derby winners as a boy and could still list all winners and their breeding as long as he lived. I first got to Epsom in 95, the first saturday Derby. 2000 Gns winners from England, France, and Ireland ran that day as well as all the derby trial winners. Yet they were beaten by a relative unknown who happened to be the only Derby winner who was the son of a Derby winner and Epsom Oaks winner( even if she got it on a disqualification). I remember getting home and telling my father of my experience. To the day he died Lammtara was the best racehorse he witnessed because the horse in his eyes had it all; pedigree, performance, will to win, an unbeaten race record and perhaps the little fact that his yonngest son was there to witness it! The Derby is still the ultimate test of a racehorse. A place where the cream comes to the top. Come June 2 we will have another memory to savour whatever the outcome.
