Epsom Derby 2012

The more I look at this race with all these ifs and buts the more I'm liking the chances of Kesampour. Already on Ernest Hemingway at fancy prices but totally in the dark about where he is at, Kesampour seems to me to be completely overlooked.

People will look at his last effort and discount it. I'm not so sure. I've seen countless 1000's of french races and in the grand scheme of things this was not a bad effort. Looking at all his form he has beaten quite a few winners and the two behind him in the Greffuhle could turn out better than expected. Connections have been adamant from the get go that he needs better ground to be seen at his best which bodes very well, he'll get the distance no problem and he has a touch of speed and class to match. He is undefeated in four starts going for a barn that has been on a terrific run since the season started with no let up in sight. The biggest imponderable for me is the track but if they decide to go for the race maybe they'll give him a little breeze around similar to Pour Moi last year. Simply too many favorables for me to be that price, especially when I see all those that are shorter. Mandour a horse he beat comfortably last year is running in a grp.3 over 10 furlongs at Chantilly today. Will be watching with interest.

I've just had a go on him at 25/1 with that 2 bit outfit Corals. Surprised they took my bet.
 
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brendanr said:
The more I look at this race with all these ifs and buts the more I'm liking the chances of Kesampour. Already on Ernest Hemingway at fancy prices but totally in the dark about where he is at, Kesampour seems to me to be completely overlooked.

People will look at his last effort and discount it. I'm not so sure. I've seen countless 1000's of french races and in the grand scheme of things this was not a bad effort. Looking at all his form he has beaten quite a few winners and the two behind him in the Greffuhle could turn out better than expected. Connections have been adamant from the get go that he needs better ground to be seen at his best which bodes very well, he'll get the distance no problem and he has a touch of speed and class to match. He is undefeated in four starts going for a barn that has been on a terrific run since the season started with no let up in sight. The biggest imponderable for me is the track but if they decide to go for the race maybe they'll give him a little breeze around similar to Pour Moi last year. Simply too many favorables for me to be that price, especially when I see all those that are shorter. Mandour a horse he beat comfortably last year is running in a grp.3 over 10 furlongs at Chantilly today. Will be watching with interest.

I've just had a go on him at 25/1 with that 2 bit outfit Corals. Surprised they took my bet.
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There's a user on here who goes by the username of Warbler who tends to back everything that runs in France so he'll be able to give you a confidence boost on Kesapour and what his forms like - worth sending him a private message.
 
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I was involved in French racing for a good 10 years and have been following since the early eighties so no need for much help but thanks anyway.
 
Impressive looking win for Astrology, though what he beat is questionable.

I see too that the only 3yo colts Ballydoyle have entered in the Arc are Camelot, Wrote, Imperial Monarch, Ernest Hemmingway and Furner's Green so it wouldn't appear that Astrology is regarded as being among their best.
 
Kept in the Dante but O'Brien suggesting will only run on good, which in truth looks unlikely. Need him to run in a trial I think to get a run for our money at Epsom.
 
Ernest strikes me as a Gallinule-Irish Derby horse. I seriously doubt they will run him at Epsom, being such an unexperienced horse.
 
Can anyone shed any light on Parish Hall or is this a thread for discussing AOB animals only? He's not in the Derrinstown or the Dante. Surely Jim isn't stupid enough to go for the Irish Guineas and not even bother with the Derby.
 
Euronymous said:
Can anyone shed any light on Parish Hall or is this a thread for discussing AOB animals only? He's not in the Derrinstown or the Dante. Surely Jim isn't stupid enough to go for the Irish Guineas and not even bother with the Derby.
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I'd love to know what Bolger has planned. A few of us at work got skinned on the Guineas ante-post and are keen to re-coup our losses:confused:
 
Not like Jim not to run if horse is right. Ground may be the key to him and Jim would not be averse to going straight to Epsom. He believes in having horse at peak ten or so days before big target and keeping them ticking over the last days.As previously said nothing worse for a horse than run them on unsuitalbe ground especially with Group 1 penaltys to carry .
 
Very disappointing from Wrote. Tower Rock has improved nicely from the Ballysax but is surely no danger at Epsom.
 
Wait until Thomas Chippedale runs in the Dante you'll all have something to take Camelot on with.

Light Heavy is an exceptionally talented horse though, nothing can be taken away from him although I have no pictures here I'd like to see how he won rather than reading the results
 
The last four to take it in before winning at Epsom - Grundy, The Minstrel, Secreto and New Approach all did it with a gap of two/two and a half weeks.
 
Bruce_Savage said:
Wait until Thomas Chippedale runs in the Dante you'll all have something to take Camelot on with.

Light Heavy is an exceptionally talented horse though, nothing can be taken away from him although I have no pictures here I'd like to see how he won rather than reading the results
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Camelot looks better by the day with CDV franking the 2000g form..i think you will be relying on a horse called C/D to beat Camelot mesen
 
EC1 said:
Camelot looks better by the day with CDV franking the 2000g form..i think you will be relying on a horse called C/D to beat Camelot mesen
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How the hell has CDV franked the form?

Beaten by Gregorian?

Another slow race that thrown up a shock result just like the 2000 Guineas.

If you're one for taking slow races as an ingredient for proving world class horses and franking your Camelot case then you're as mad as a hatter EC1!

Everyone with an ounce of common sense would tell you that if you ran the 2000 Guineas again today with a stronger pace you'd of seen a total reverse of the formbook.

The fact it was ridden to suit CDV after last Saturday's exploits and he couldn't finish off his race coming 7th then it's a shocking indictment for Camelot's credentials.
 
Bruce_Savage said:
How the hell has CDV franked the form?

Beaten by Gregorian?

Another slow race that thrown up a shock result just like the 2000 Guineas.

If you're one for taking slow races as an ingredient for proving world class horses and franking your Camelot case then you're as mad as a hatter EC1!

Everyone with an ounce of common sense would tell you that if you ran the 2000 Guineas again today with a stronger pace you'd of seen a total reverse of the formbook.

The fact it was ridden to suit CDV after last Saturday's exploits and he couldn't finish off his race coming 7th then it's a shocking indictment for Camelot's credentials.
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i don't mind being mad as a hatter..but i don't count placings as form..i go by distance beaten

and..if you ran the 2000 guineas again with a stronger pace camelot would have won further..and thats just basic pace stuff

thats my last word on Camelot...i'm not being drawn into anymore silly stuff Bruce
 
EC1 said:
i don't mind being mad as a hatter..but i don't count placings as form..i go by distance beaten

and..if you ran the 2000 guineas again with a stronger pace camelot would have won further..and thats just basic pace stuff

thats my last word on Camelot...i'm not being drawn into anymore silly stuff Bruce
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He tired off a slow pace so how would drawing more energy out of him throughout 8f mean he could win more impressively?

This isn't silly talk EC1 I'm being serious with you here and you need to realize that rather than palming off the conversation when things get a little bit tough.

If you haven't got the time to sit down and debate with me on the issue then come out and say it rather than issue impractical observations about the legitimacy of my racing knowledge and defamation against my character.

Listen, the 2000 Guineas this year was a poor show which is backed up by a poor time and a horse that was running regressive fractions in the final stages after being hard ridden to get to win. The French 2000 Guineas today was set up today for anything to burst out of the pack and win by 5 or 6 lengths but it's quite clear that the three year olds we have this year are extraordinarily average which makes Camelot's work man like and uninspiring performances on the clock hard to match with that of a horse whose expected to dominate Europe from a 10-14f.
 
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EC1,

Best way to draw a line under this is that if Camelot wins the Derby I will have my account terminated but if French Fifteen or Camelot fail to win another race this season then you shall have your account terminated.

Even more, If you want a personal wager that I can get a horse to finish infront of Camelot this Derby then I'm all ears.

So far we're 0-1 out of the 2000 Guineas form.

1-0 to the Mordin's and Savage's of this world.

Please reply before the Rory has a say on the matter.
 
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