Epsom Derby 2012

Bruce_Savage said:
EC1,

Best way to draw a line under this is that if Camelot wins the Derby I will have my account terminated but if French Fifteen or Camelot fail to win another race this season then you shall have your account terminated.

Even more, If you want a personal wager that I can get a horse to finish infront of Camelot this Derby then I'm all ears.

So far we're 0-1 out of the 2000 Guineas form.

1-0 to the Mordin's and Savage's of this world.

Please reply before the Rory has a say on the matter.
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i'll draw a line under it..firstly i already explained the sectionlas ..which i spent a fair bit of time on..secondly i already said its possible C won't stay and that i wouldn't back him at 5/4 to do so
 
Zenyatta said:
Out of interest, what price do you think Camelot should be Bruce?
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Hi Zen,

To the naked eye you can't get away from the fact he's won a 2000 Guineas on paper and to average joe public he's probably the right price for them to get stuck into - that's why bookmakers will be around making profits long before you and I are dead.

Looking at the race with information that your average joe wouldn't know how to interpret or wouldn't know how to get their hands on then you'd simply have to put Camelot in as a 3-1 shot and ease him out after The Dante to maybe 4/1 and 7/2 on the day.
 
I will have as much of the 3/1, 7/2 and 4/1 as you are offering please Bruce. ;)

If you want Camelot so big who on earth do you think deserves to be any shorter?!
 
Why would I lay you at 3/1, 7/2 and 4/1 when I can fill my boots at 11/10.

Main Sequence has already produced a better performance in The Lingfield Derby Trial than Camelot has ever done and sets a good standard for Camelot to reach over 12f given that many say he's yet to be seen at his optimum distance whilst Main Sequence has probably reached his level.

That being said it's only touching the sides of being good enough for winning an Epsom Derby and I can't see too much improvement from him although he sets a good benchmark for the others to reach.

Thomas Chippdendale, Ektihaam & Bonfire are all legitimate contenders.
 
:lol:

Beating the maiden Shantaram by 3/4s of a length is definitely better form than winning the 2000 Guineas. How exactly is that "a good benchmark for the others to reach"?!

I hereby resign from this discussion. ;)
 
Must be something in the waters with this country people, too much fresh air.

Can't wait to prove you all wrong though and when I do I'll make sure you'll never forget it for the rest of your lives.
 
:lol:

I like Shantaram. He's a big thing who'll be lots better later in the season over further. Gan Amhras went on a big decline after running well in the Guineas though.
 
Bruce, my main concern about Camelot in the derby would tend to be the things he hasn't done so far in his limited career, i.e. run over further than a mile, and possible showing too much speed on dead ground in the Guineas to be a proper Derby horse.

Your argument about him not being capable of winning the derby, focuses on apparant lapses in his actual form to date. This anaylisis surely has to be a flawed in some way, which is why you've got so many people disagreeing with you.

Essentially, it will probably be a toss of a coin as to whether Camelot wins it, and therefore for all this debate I don't think anyone should set themselves up as 'knowing all along' and being 'cleverer than everyone else', and 'making people never forget it for the rest of their lives'.

To reiterate, I don't disagree he is opposable, but feel you're over egging it and taking a strong stance for the sake of taking a strong stance, with their not being enough evidence to justify this. That said, its your prerogative to do this and this is what forums are used for.

I'm still keen on Mickdaam E/W.
 
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EC1 said:
i been reading forums for 12 years now..and thats got to be the best/funniest/saddest thing ...all rolled into one...i've read Bruce

classic:cool::cool::cool:
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Not as long as that on forums - but have met plenty of complete nut jobs in my time...there is more sadness to this than anything. This man needs help.
 
Euronymous said:
:lol:

I like Shantaram. He's a big thing who'll be lots better later in the season over further. Gan Amhras went on a big decline after running well in the Guineas though.
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Coupe De Ville finishes 11l behind Rougemont over 10f at Newmarket
Coupe De Ville finishes 5.25l behind Camelot over 8f at Newmarket
Rougemeont finishes 10l behind Main Sequence over 12f at Lingfield.

Let's not forget that Main Sequence has beaten Surfer 5.25l who went on to finish second to Mickdaam over in Dubai by 2.25l.

Mickdaam was a 0.5l second to Rougemont at Newmarket over 10f and has come out to win the Chester Vase beating Model Pupil in 2nd who beat Shantaram by a nose at Newmarket over 10f in the Wood Ditton.

Spoil The Fun was beaten 6.25l by Mickdaam and went on to run Lucayan within 2.5l in second over 8f who has just won the French 2000 Guineas beating Coupe De Ville back in 7th by 3l who was 5.25l off Camelot in the English 2000 Guineas.

Goldoni was beaten 4.25l by Coup De Ville as a 2yo over 8f and finished 12l behind Main Sequence over 12f in the Derby Trial.

Through Yang Tse Kiang in the UAE Derby who was beaten 1.25l by Daddy Long Legs and finished 2l ahead of Mickdaam over 9.5f brings in Hard Dream for the French who looks a possible danger.

Daddy Long Legs was pulled up in the Kentucky Derby whilst Went The Day Well finished 4th who was beaten on the bridle at Leicester by Thomas Chippdenale so he enters the frame.

David Livingston was beaten 6l by Mickdaam giving away 4lbs over 12f but was beaten by Light Heavy by 5.75l over 10f giving away 5lbs whilst Call To Battle was 2.25l behind Light Heavy over the 10f and finishing 1.5l closer to Mickdaam over 12f this week.

For me Main Sequence has got everything in England and Ireland covered although the French runner Hard Dream looks a distinct danger.

There's potential for Thomas Chippendale to pop out the pack along with Bonfire & Ektihaam which will all be settled in Dante.

Not so stupid as you think
 
Let's not forget Main Sequence has put up an excellent time over 12f in impressive style showing star quality with his ability to cut through the field from last to first in a matter of strides going on well at the finish.

The horse still looks green in truth and the more I talk about him the more I think he's the obvious danger to Camelot!
 
It's beginning to dry out. Been soft since Thursdaym but good to soft in places now and tomorrow likely to be a drying day. Suspect it will be mainly good to soft for the start of the meeting.
 
EC1 said:
i'll draw a line under it..firstly i already explained the sectionlas ..which i spent a fair bit of time on..secondly i already said its possible C won't stay and that i wouldn't back him at 5/4 to do so
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I had to go in for the 5/4 after all. Don't worry about the trip (see earlier posting). They seem to be dropping like flies on almost a daily basis. The credible opposition is melting away.
 
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Originally Posted by Bruce_Savage View Post
Can't wait to prove you all wrong though and when I do I'll make sure you'll never forget it for the rest of your lives.

Originally Posted by Bruce_Savage View Post
I'm already on Nephrite for £3750 win after my visit to Ireland.

And also Apollo £2100 win at 33-1 for The Derby.




SteveM said:
...what's happened to these bets Bruce?
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:cool::cool:

Probably just chump change for Brucie
 
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...I find it amazing how we've become almost desensitised to this bullshit like there is any genuine reality to it. It's like watching some uncontained virus.
 
SteveM said:
...I find it amazing how we've become almost desensitised to this bullshit like there is any genuine reality to it. It's like watching some uncontained virus.
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How about breaking down my form analysis for Main Sequence?

Where do you think I've gone wrong in proceedings?

If anything Steve you're making a mountain out of a molehill and it's quite obvious what you're trying to do.

Re: Brendan,

NRNB on Nephrite and Apollo looks a likely NRNB too.
 
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