Flat horses to note for the season

And tomorrow:

TOLSTOY - (Newmarket, 20:20)

timeform
Ran well to be placed at Sandown (5f) and Brighton (7f) in June but ran one of his lesser races when down the field over 5f here 3 weeks ago. Bounce back needed.
 
Not sure Tolstoy should be included in the old P&L as the only reason I noted him was his good run when stepped up to 7 after 20 odd runs. His trainer has gone back to 5 and 6 where he is of no interest to me.
 
Euronymous said:
Not sure Tolstoy should be included in the old P&L as the only reason I noted him was his good run when stepped up to 7 after 20 odd runs. His trainer has gone back to 5 and 6 where he is of no interest to me.
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OK, we’ll exclude it if it loses and include it if it wins - that seems fair :lol:
 
Tomorrow:

FINAL WATCH - (Newmarket, 16:15)

timeform
As good as ever when scoring over C&D last month but not in same form here following week, possibly finding the race coming too soon. Type to bounce back.

KATHAB - (Haydock, 14:25)

timeform
Off the mark at the fourth time of asking in 1m Ripon maiden 33 days ago. Not obviously one of his leading stable's very progressive types but lightly raced and could easily still have more to offer in handicaps.

KING OF CONQUEST - (Haydock, 15:00)

timeform
Further progress this season, landing big-field 9f handicaps in Bahrain and at Newmarket before battling well to complete hat-trick in listed contest at Goodwood. Caught further back than ideal when fifth in Wolferton at Royal Ascot since and remains of interest. Headgear on.

LIKE A TIGER - (Ascot, 15:55)

timeform
Looked on the up when resuming with Newmarket handicap win over 10f in April. Back on track when fifth at Yarmouth last time and still relatively unexposed.

REGAL EMPIRE - (Ascot, 15:55)

Fhtf 23/4
timeform
Dual winner (at up to 11.1f) at Southwell last winter and acquitted himself well on turf more recently, latest when third of 10 in handicap at Yarmouth 16 days ago. Should give another good account.

TARRABB - (Haydock, 16:10)

timeform
Successful 3 times last year, latterly when edging out subsequent listed winner Queen Aminatu in C&D fillies' handicap at this meeting. Fine run again fitted with tongue tie when third (Don't Tell Claire second) in the Kensington Palace at Royal Ascot and not out of this
 
barjon said:
Tomorrow:

FINAL WATCH - (Newmarket, 16:15)

timeform
As good as ever when scoring over C&D last month but not in same form here following week, possibly finding the race coming too soon. Type to bounce back.

Non- Runner

KATHAB - (Haydock, 14:25)

timeform
Off the mark at the fourth time of asking in 1m Ripon maiden 33 days ago. Not obviously one of his leading stable's very progressive types but lightly raced and could easily still have more to offer in handicaps.

WON 11/2 - KATHAB, off the mark in an uncompetitive affair at Ripon last time, took a step up on his handicap debut. The solid gallop suited and he came through towards the inside to win nicely. The easing ground conditions possibly helped, and he'll be open to further improvement this autumn.RP

KING OF CONQUEST - (Haydock, 15:00)

timeform
Further progress this season, landing big-field 9f handicaps in Bahrain and at Newmarket before battling well to complete hat-trick in listed contest at Goodwood. Caught further back than ideal when fifth in Wolferton at Royal Ascot since and remains of interest. Headgear on.

4th/7 9/2 - King Of Conquest, who was in headgear for the first time, was weak in the market. He was unable to pick up when it mattered and proved rather disappointing.RP



LIKE A TIGER - (Ascot, 15:55)

timeform
Looked on the up when resuming with Newmarket handicap win over 10f in April. Back on track when fifth at Yarmouth last time and still relatively unexposed.

8th/10 3/1fav - Like A Tiger, trying this far for the first time, found himself boxed in when attempting to pull out for his effort and it may be best to draw a line through this.RP.

REGAL EMPIRE - (Ascot, 15:55)

Fhtf 23/4
timeform
Dual winner (at up to 11.1f) at Southwell last winter and acquitted himself well on turf more recently, latest when third of 10 in handicap at Yarmouth 16 days ago. Should give another good account.

WON 13/2 -REGAL EMPIRE, always handy, deserves plenty of credit as he looked vulnerable on a couple of occasions having edged to the front, but neither horse nor jockey was in any mood to lie down. A dual AW winner, this was his first success on turf and he shouldn't go up too much. He looks a real fighter, so perhaps the Melrose may be an option at York later this month.RP

TARRABB - (Haydock, 16:10)

timeform
Successful 3 times last year, latterly when edging out subsequent listed winner Queen Aminatu in C&D fillies' handicap at this meeting. Fine run again fitted with tongue tie when third (Don't Tell Claire second) in the Kensington Palace at Royal Ascot and not out of this

9th/13. 17/2

Outpaced when push came to shove, never a danger
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Results above.

Running Balance - 4.7 Points
 
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Tomorrow:

PINAFORE - (Nottingham, 16:30)

timeform
Latest win at Ripon in May. 15/8, not seen to best effect when last of 5 in handicap at Lingfield (6f, good) 28 days ago, not ideally placed. Cheekpieces on first time.
 
barjon said:
Tomorrow:

PINAFORE - (Nottingham, 16:30)

timeform
Latest win at Ripon in May. 15/8, not seen to best effect when last of 5 in handicap at Lingfield (6f, good) 28 days ago, not ideally placed. Cheekpieces on first time.
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WON 7/2 - PINAFORE, disappointing twice since winning at Ripon in May, was fitted with cheekpieces for the first time. They had a galvanising effect, the filly travelling powerfully before settling matters quickly once unleashed. She would be very interesting if turned out under a penalty - assuming the headgear works again.RP

Running Balance - 1.2 Points
 
Tomorrow:


DANCING MAGIC - (Salisbury, 16:10)

timeform
Remains a maiden but has been highly tried. This is another tough ask.

MAN OF EDEN - (Windsor, 18:30)


timeform
AW maiden winner on yard debut in January. Has drawn a blank in handicaps since but there have been several good efforts. Looked unlucky not to finish a bit closer when third of 17 at Glorious Goodwood (1m, soft) a fortnight ago. Should go well again.

MONTY BAY - (Salisbury, 17:10)

timeform
Winner at Chepstow in June. Very good third of 12 in handicap at York (7.9f, good, 7/1) 34 days ago, staying on well. Promises to be well suited by this longer trip and looks worth a chance to resume winning ways.
 
Ithaca's Arrow from the London Gold Cup. Hasn't done much since but dropped again, back down in trip and Murphy booked. Seems to be money for it. When the tracker came trough it was 16/1, now 10s best.
 
barjon said:
MONTY BAY - (Salisbury, 17:10)

timeform
Winner at Chepstow in June. Very good third of 12 in handicap at York (7.9f, good, 7/1) 34 days ago, staying on well. Promises to be well suited by this longer trip and looks worth a chance to resume winning ways.
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That's the trouble with having horses to follow made up largely I would say of 3yo. MB was 7/2 when prices opened, drifted to 6/1 prior to the off, runs really well and gets done by some Hamdan cnut that had zero form credentials but was well fancied.
 
Euronymous said:
That's the trouble with having horses to follow made up largely I would say of 3yo. MB was 7/2 when prices opened, drifted to 6/1 prior to the off, runs really well and gets done by some Hamdan cnut that had zero form credentials but was well fancied.
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Qq
You can rarely buck the market, Euro. At least Clive Cox listened to you about the extra distance ;)

Ps: you’ve really got to respect Shadwell runners at the moment. With their down-sizing they are only interested in keeping the cream so anything they’ve got must be well thought of.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Ithaca's Arrow from the London Gold Cup. Hasn't done much since but dropped again, back down in trip and Murphy booked. Seems to be money for it. When the tracker came trough it was 16/1, now 10s best.
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I'm afraid this is just a donkey. Given every chance but totally devoid of pace.

Might make a Class 5 staying chaser one day...
 
barjon said:
Tomorrow:


DANCING MAGIC - (Salisbury, 16:10)

timeform
Remains a maiden but has been highly tried. This is another tough ask.

4th/5 20/1 - looks out of his depth at this level.

MAN OF EDEN - (Windsor, 18:30)


timeform
AW maiden winner on yard debut in January. Has drawn a blank in handicaps since but there have been several good efforts. Looked unlucky not to finish a bit closer when third of 17 at Glorious Goodwood (1m, soft) a fortnight ago. Should go well again.

3rd/10 5/1 - didn’t get the clearest of runs when it mattered and would otherwise have been a bit closer, as he would have done with a better ride (my opinion).

MONTY BAY - (Salisbury, 17:10)

timeform
Winner at Chepstow in June. Very good third of 12 in handicap at York (7.9f, good, 7/1) 34 days ago, staying on well. Promises to be well suited by this longer trip and looks worth a chance to resume winning ways.

2nd 15/2 - drifted from 7/2 so the market called it with the convincing, easy winner

Running Balance: - 4.2 Points

.
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Results above.

Tomorrow:


LION'S DREAM - (Thirsk, 20:20)

timeform
Blinkered for first time, fifth of 7 in handicap at Nottingham (8.3f, heavy, 16/1) 31 days ago. Headgear removed and he doesn't look an easy ride.
 
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barjon said:
Results above.

Tomorrow:


LION'S DREAM - (Thirsk, 20:20)

timeform
Blinkered for first time, fifth of 7 in handicap at Nottingham (8.3f, heavy, 16/1) 31 days ago. Headgear removed and he doesn't look an easy ride.
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8th/13 22/1 - didn’t feature.

Running Balance: - 5.2 Points

Tomorrow:

HARRY BROWN - (Newbury, 14:25)

timeform
2 wins from 6 runs this year and ran respectably from 4 lb out of the weights when eighth of 15 in handicap at Ascot (5f, soft) 35 days ago. Not dismissed back down in grade.

INTRICACY - (Newbury, 17:15)

timeform
Already developing a consistent record and scored readily in first-time cheekpieces at Ascot in July. Solid fourth of 12 at Goodwood since so he's shortlisted.

LION KINGDOM - (Newbury, 16:40)

timeform
Improved with each of his 3 starts as a juvenile and shaped well on 2 of his 3 starts this term, that despite not looking well served by the steady tempo when second at Newmarket (10f) in July. Likely there's more to come from him granted a greater test of stamina.

MAMMAS GIRL - (Newbury, 15:35)

timeform
Newmarket winner on sole 2-y-o start and while it was hardly a vintage renewal of the Nell Gwyn that she won on return there in April, she did it decisively. Well held in pair of Group 1s next 2 starts but back on track when mid-field in a Group 3 at York last month. Return to 7f a plus.
 
barjon said:
8th/13 22/1 - didn’t feature.

Running Balance: - 5.2 Points

Tomorrow:

HARRY BROWN - (Newbury, 14:25)

timeform
2 wins from 6 runs this year and ran respectably from 4 lb out of the weights when eighth of 15 in handicap at Ascot (5f, soft) 35 days ago. Not dismissed back down in grade.

non-runner

INTRICACY - (Newbury, 17:15)

timeform
Already developing a consistent record and scored readily in first-time cheekpieces at Ascot in July. Solid fourth of 12 at Goodwood since so he's shortlisted.

3rd/8 11/1 - tracked leader, led 2f out, ridden and headed inside final furlong, weakened into 3rd inside final 150 yards

LION KINGDOM - (Newbury, 16:40)

timeform
Improved with each of his 3 starts as a juvenile and shaped well on 2 of his 3 starts this term, that despite not looking well served by the steady tempo when second at Newmarket (10f) in July. Likely there's more to come from him granted a greater test of stamina.

9th/13 5/1 - Lion Kingdom, trying this far for the first time, had shaped as though it would suit but a promising effort soon fizzled out so he may have to go back to 1m2f.RP

MAMMAS GIRL - (Newbury, 15:35)

timeform
Newmarket winner on sole 2-y-o start and while it was hardly a vintage renewal of the Nell Gwyn that she won on return there in April, she did it decisively. Well held in pair of Group 1s next 2 starts but back on track when mid-field in a Group 3 at York last month. Return to 7f a plus.

4th/9 15/2 - Mammas Girl could never land a telling blow and is still to confirm the promise of her win in the Nell Gwyn, but she didn't enjoy the clearest of runs through and this was another small step back in the right direction.RP
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Results above - a bit of place money, but only winners count

Running Balance: - 8.2 Points
 
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Sorry, I’ve only just got my emails back and I’ve missed todays runners:


BLUELIGHT BAY - (Sandown, 17:45)

VANDEEK - (Deauville, 15:25)
 
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barjon said:
Sorry, I’ve only just got my emails back and I’ve missed todays runners:


BLUELIGHT BAY - (Sandown, 17:45)

VANDEEK - (Deauville, 15:25)
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BB 2nd 25/1 - but we’re only counting winners :whistle:
V WON 9/2

Running Balance: - 4.7 Points
 
Couldn't understand the Bluelight Bay price. He was poor last time but that was on the July course over-watered slop and 36 on the machine was an insult. One of those where if you're having a good year it goes in. Nice confidence booster before York though.
 
Tomorrow:

CANBERRA LEGEND - (York, 15:00)

timeform
AW debut winner in February and followed up in Feilden Stakes at Newmarket in April. Disappointed in the Dante but straight back on track in the Hampton Court at Royal Ascot and ran to a similar level upped further in trip when third in a Group 3 at Goodwood recently. More required here.

MOSTAHDAF - (York, 15:35)

timeform
Finally confirmed himself the top-notcher he'd long looked when impressively landing the Prince of Wales at Royal Ascot, showing a fine turn of foot. A repeat of that performance will see him bang there under Dettori.
 
https://www.racingpost.com/results/107/york/2023-05-27/839499

It's been a quiet time for adding to this thread. For me it's because there is down time between Goodwood and York and also that after Goodwood when I do my weekly review of the action I only concentrate on the Grade 1 tracks. Keeps me fresh.

Anyway, the race above has for me been the handicap of the year and something that's come up time and again during my reviews. I have lots of thoughts and I'm gonna share them to pass the time as we await the first race of Ebor week:

Starnberg didn't go in my tracker as he won too well - I'm not looking for winners who score by 3+ lengths going away, I want them to win by a length and a half after leading close home - the Stewart Simpson method in essence, the first and best punting book I've ever read. Things change though and one thing I've mentioned here already is wide margin(ish) handicap winners are not going up enough, seen this time and again this year. Starnberg went up 8lbs for this win, went to Nottingham next and was stepped up to a mile and half a furlong - a positive given he's out of a Nayef mare. Hannon booked a 5lb claimer so he was basically up 3lbs from the Knavesmire win - and he started 9/2 and hosed up by 7 lengths. Unreal.

Monopolise in second was in the Havana Blue/Chartwell House hcap at the Craven Meeting. I tracked those two but not the Ed Walker horse as I don't rate him. Good move, he did win one race two starts later but was 9/4.

I had no interest in Tasever in third but Craven in fourth and Five Towns in fifth have both been in my tracker this year. The former after a good second behind Bajan Bandit at York (that horse has form with Man of Eden, another regular on this thread) and Five Towns after a good second at Haydock (not seen since). Craven was horrible at Salisbury post that second York run but was a tad unlucky to get caught close home at Thirsk last week. I may give him another chance when/if he runs at a proper track (Thirsk and Salisbury close to the top of my least favourite racecourses to bet at list.)

Harlem Nights was seventh behind Starnberg that day on his seasonal reappearance. His next start he was in theory tracker worthy coming from the rear on the July Course and not having the best of passages, finishing second to a front running Johnston. Trouble is that was a Class 5 and I don't go below Class 4 when I conduct my review. He was again in C5 action at Haydock after a wee break when he ran into a very nice Beckett colt called Leadenhall in early August before winning very nicely at Donny last Saturday. Leadenhall had so so form early in the season over 6 and 7 before improving when stepped up to a mile at Donny in June. He wore blinkers for the second time that day, was very keen and ran fairly green in the straight. At Haydock sans headgear he was much more professional and despite not travelling quite as well as Harlem Nights really powered home. Both look on the upgrade.
 
Is it just the last two, Harlem Nights and Leadenhall to be added to the thread list, Euro?
 
barjon said:
Tomorrow:

CANBERRA LEGEND - (York, 15:00)

timeform
AW debut winner in February and followed up in Feilden Stakes at Newmarket in April. Disappointed in the Dante but straight back on track in the Hampton Court at Royal Ascot and ran to a similar level upped further in trip when third in a Group 3 at Goodwood recently. More required here.

last/5 16/1 Canberra Legend had finished ahead of
Artistic Star at Glorious Goodwood but he too got involved in the early burn up and dropped away quickly. RP

MOSTAHDAF - (York, 15:35)

timeform
Finally confirmed himself the top-notcher he'd long looked when impressively landing the Prince of Wales at Royal Ascot, showing a fine turn of foot. A repeat of that performance will see him bang there under Dettori.

WON 3/1 MOSTAHDAF backed up his Prince of Wales's win, now 7-7 off rest periods of 45 days or more (8-8 'fresh' if you include his debut). The switch to front-running tactics - and setting a solid gallop - proved a masterstroke as he got the favourite in trouble soon after turning in, rather than that one getting the run of it, and although he then looked vulnerable himself halfway up the straight, and went left for pressure, he saw it out well, a Group winner over 1m4f whose stamina kicked in when the race was on the line. He wouldn't appeal if turned out relativelu quicklu for the Irish Champion Stakes, but the Breeders' Cup Turf might suit him, albeit this was a 'win and you're in' for the Classic.RP

Running Balance: - 2.7 Points
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Results above.

And tomorrow:

SHANROE - (Killarney, 19:10)

timeform
1 win from 2 runs this year. Won 6-runner minor event at Galway (14.1f, good to soft, 15/8) 20 days ago. Booking of Whelan a plus. Another bold show likely.

ST VINCENTS GARDEN - (Leopardstown, 18:55)

timeform
Very good 9 lengths sixth of 14 to Gregory in Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot (14.2f, good, 22/1) 64 days ago, barely adequate test. Cheekpieces on 1st time. May well do better.

BLUESTOCKING - (York, 15:35)

timeform
Overcame inexperience to make a winning debut in Salisbury novice last autumn. Shaped well when placed behind Warm Heart in Newbury listed race/the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot (1½m, good to firm) before collared only close home by Savethelastdance in the Irish Oaks. Sure to be in the mix again.

FREE WIND - (York, 15:35)

timeform
Very talented mare who enhanced her fine strike rate in the Group 2 Middleton Stakes here (10f) on return. Reportedly ran flat when fifth in Hardwicke at Royal Ascot next time and easy to forgive latest run on bottomless ground. Needs considering.

MORACANA - (York, 16:10)

timeform
Useful mare who was better than ever when scoring at Cork in April and has continued to progress, closing all way to line when fifth in Duke of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot (12f, good to firm) when last seen. Another step forward needed, but that is possible
 
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