The BHA handicappers thoughts on the subject plus other happenings last week, from their blog on the RP site;
http://www.racingpost.com/blog/horse-racing/the-bha-handicappers/ :
Canford Cliffs v Frankel would be a clash to relish
IT'S been just about the busiest week of the year for our team of Flat handicappers but there hasn't been a single complaint. Royal Ascot is one thing, but this year's meeting proved something else. From a blistering start with two mouthwatering 1m Group 1s, there were headline performances throughout the week and our team give their full verdict in a bumper edition, writes blog editor Martin Greenwood.
MILES CLEAR
Dominic Gardiner-Hill on the 1m division
As the man charged with responsibility for the 1m division Royal Ascot is always a special meeting, but this year's renewal brought even bigger expectations with first-day highlights the Queen Anne Stakes and the St James's Palace both looking outstanding editions. So did the action match the hype?
The opening Queen Anne let nobody down. Canford Cliffs exacted revenge for former stable companion Paco Boy's near misses against the great Goldikova last year with a length defeat of Olivier Peslier's mount, running right up to his best of 127 in doing so. Technically the 2lb overweight Peslier weighed in at could have made the difference between victory and defeat, certainly she could have been closer, but to my eyes Canford was always travelling the best and Isuggest he would have prevailed anyway. I have Goldikova running to 124 with third-placed Cityscape running a lifetime best at 121. He provided the only real question mark over the form having gone into the race on 119, but he's beginning to look a top-quality performer when the ground is on the easy side - his seven-length romp in the Joel Stakes at Newmarket last year could easily have been rated higher than the 119 he was given. This line of thinking is also backed up by fourth-placed Rio De La Plata running to 117 - just about his limit at a 1m, but capable of slightly better over 1m2f.
I am still of the belief that Canford Cliffs has a 130 performance in him but given his style of running he needs a top-quality target to pull him through to that figure - no prizes as to who I (and everybody else in the racing world) would like that target to be.
Yes, Frankel kept his unbeaten record intact but, to be perfectly honest, left me a little deflated immediately after. Like just about everyone else on the Heath I was hoping for another demolition job but it didn't happen. I'm not going to jump on the Queally-bashing wagon, suffice to say that the tactics used on the day didn't see Frankel in the same light as on Guineas day. In running to a mark of 122 I believe he performed 8lb (or four lengths) off his Guineas performance - with runner-up Zoffany improving 5lb to 120 and third- and fourth-placed Excelebration and Neebras both credited with a mark of 117. In retrospect (and having seen So You Think collared the next day) I actually believe this was a very meritorious performance from Frankel and one that should leave his reputation untarnished - to be used so early in the race and still have the reserves to hang on takes a top-quality performer.
In running to 122, Frankel's performance in the race also compares pretty favourably with other recent winners. In the previous ten years only Araafa (125 in 2006), Rock Of Gibraltar (124 in 2002) and Henrythenavigator (123 in 2008) have put up superior performances on the day.
Friday's Coronation Stakes was also a little unsatisfactory given the rain-softened ground it was run on, but Immortal Verse looked good in beating fellow French filly Nova Hawk by two and a quarter lengths. It is difficult to get the race particularly high in terms of ratings, with the next three home all needing to be raised by amounts varying from 2lb to 6lb, but the winner showed a fine turn of foot and I have credited her with a mark of 115. She should continue to take all the beating when taking on her own sex, particularly when there is some cut underfoot.
Thankfully the 1m handicaps proved competitive through the week and nothing popped up to make fools of us. Hunt Cup winner Julienas will be raised 7lb to a new mark of 100 for his success, while Britannia Handicap victor Sagramor will be raised 6lb to a new figure of 99. Impressive Sandringham Handicap winner Rhythm Of Light continued her progression and will be up 9lb to 103 inthis week's list - surely a crack at Listed company now beckons for Tom Dascombe's filly.
MORE GOLD CUP GLORY FOR BALLYDOYLE
Stephen Hindle considers the fallout from the GoldCup
Could it be that Ballydoyle have found a successor to four-time Gold Cup winner Yeats? Well, Fame And Glory clearly has some way to go before we can seriously consider that possibility, but he set about the feat in good style with an authoritative three-length victory over Opinion Poll.
Fame And Glory's task was made somewhat easier by the defection of last year's winner Rite Of Passage, but the chances are he'd have prevailed in any case as I have him running to 120, which is slightly higher than what we had Rite Of Passage running to in 2010.
With some excellent past form to his name, including a win in the Irish Derby in 2009 and a fifth in last year's Arc, Fame And Glory had excellent credentials going into this year's Gold Cup. He'd also won both his starts this term, albeit at a lower level, so his chance was there for all to see.
The major question mark over him was whether he'd stay the markedly longer trip, but he proved his stamina in emphatic fashion, travelling strongly and responding well when sent for home, despite hanging right.
Opinion Poll has often threatened to turn in a smart performance and duly did so in second. He'd been running well in Dubai at the beginning of the year and found this test right up his street with a career-best performance of 116.
Brigantin ran well for France in third, never threatening to win and coming in four and a half lengths behind Opinion Poll, but proving stamina is his strong suit nevertheless. I have him running to 112, a figure similar to that he ran to when winning the Group 2 Prix Vicomtesse Vigier at Longchamp on his previous start. Presumably the Group 1 Prix du Cadran at the same venue will be the aim after this.
Manighar and Askar Tau were half a length and the same further behind in fourth and fifth, running to 111 and 110. Askar Tau helps to set the level for the race as that figure represents a return to his best.
Duncan was a shade disappointing in sixth, having started second favourite. He'd finished in front of Manighar and Askar Tau, giving weight away, when winning the Yorkshire Cup, but perhaps he merely failed to see out this longer trip having seemingly been going well at the head of affairs turning for home, only to weaken when headed 2f out.
SPRINT PRIZES STAY AT HOME
Stewart Copeland assesses the speedsters
This year's renewal of the Group 1 6f Golden Jubilee Stakes didn't quite boast the strong international challenge we've been accustomed to in recent years, with 13 of the 16-strong field trained in Britain.
Not surprisingly the prize was kept at home and the four-year-old colt, Society Rock, trained by James Fanshawe - who later landed a notable double when Deacon Blues won the Wokingham Handicap - went one better than last year.
Runner-up to Starspangledbanner in 2010, though still sent off at the generous-looking odds of 25-1, Society Rock in my view showed himself better than ever on Saturday with his half-length defeat of Monsieur Chevalier. Having discussed the sprint division with my colleague, Graeme Smith, who's responsible for assessing the King's Stand this week,we took the view that his performance in the Golden Jubilee was worth a rating of 118, with Prohibit awarded 117 for his King's Stand success, which is something I'll go into in more detail later.
The Golden Jubilee form has a solid look to it, with the likes of the third Star Witness - who appeared not quite to last home on Saturday - Elzaam (114) in fourth, Bated Breath (113) in fifth, and Amico Fritz in sixth, all pretty much running to the level we'd expect based on what they'd achieved previously.
In a historical context this wouldn't compare with Starspangledbanner's 121 last year, and Choisir who recorded the same rating in 2003, but is about average for a winner of the Golden Jubilee from the last decade.
The King's Stand figure of 117 is also about average in terms of what it's taken to win the race in recent years. Prohibit's half-length defeat of Star Witness undoubtedly represents a career-best from Robert Cowell's six-year-old, but an accurate rating isn't that easy to come by at this stage given the international flavour of the finish - the first five represented England, Australia, Hong Kong, Hungary and France respectively.
Historical standards for the first four home proved a good starting point, suggesting a figure of 117 or 118 on Prohibit. Graeme took the view that it was hard to split Prohibit's winning performance here and that of eighth-placed Sole Power (didn't get the best of starts) in the Temple Stakes last month - when Prohibit was back in third - and increased Prohibit's rating by 4lb to 117, the same figure as his rival. With several months of the season remaining there should be plenty of time for the pair to settle their score.
FROM SMALL ACORNS...
Matthew Tester on how the two-year-olds shape up
On May 13 a couple of two-year-oldraces got disappointingly small fields, but then again, size isn't everything.
The maiden race at Hamilton that day attracted only four runners and three of those had never run before. The winner, Bapak Chinta, went on to win the Norfolk last week in good style by a length. The second, Frederick Engels, went on to win the Windsor Castle by two and a quarter lengths.
A conditions race for fillies at Newbury only saw three runners. The winner, Best Terms, went on to win the Queen Mary in a thrilling finish and a three-way photo. The second, Dijarvo, won the first Listed race of the season in France.
And you can find top class horses now at every track. The second and third in the Coventry came there from winning Leicester maidens. The first four in the Windsor Castle had each won one race - at Musselburgh, Newcastle, Beverley and Folkestone. The Albany winner was a maiden and the second and third had won their races at Redcar and on the all-weather at Lingfield. It was a fascinating Royal Ascot for the two-year-olds.
All their races came up to the usual standard of recent renewals. There were some hugely promising types but none of them are yet rated head and shoulders above the rest. However one loser caught the eye more than any other. Do have a look at the run of Gatepost in the Coventry Stakes if you get the chance. The horse covered himself in glory to finish so close and he must be considered value for much more than the bare finishing position suggests.
SUIT RETURNS TO FULL STRENGTH
Mark Olley wraps up the best of the rest
The lightly raced and progressive Codemaster was a hot favourite for the 7f Jersey Stakes on Tuesday, but he just failed to cope with the back-to-form Strong Suit.
Richard Hannon's colt won the Coventry last year before finishing a nine-length second to Dream Ahead in the Group 1 Middle Park. He had had a wind operation since finishing a disappointing last of six to Frankel in the Greenham on his reappearance and, clearly rejuvenated, conceded weight all round in this Group 3.
I have left Codemaster on his pre-race rating of 110 and moved Strong Suit up 3lb to a new high of 116. This makes Strong Suit the joint best Jersey winner, alongside 2005 Royal Ascot at York winner Proclamation, in the past ten years.
Also worth a mention is Western Aristocrat, who was a fast finishing third after getting outpaced. Jeremy Noseda's colt came into the race with a mark of 95, for landing a handicap at Haydock last month, and that form is looking rather special as the horse he beat was Rhythm Of Light who won the Listed Sandringham Handicap three hours later. I have moved Western Aristocrat up 13lb to a new mark of 108 and further improvement looks likely, especially over 1m.
