Glorious Goodwood

Anyroads, the consequent free bet has gone on to Royal Scotsman (got 11/8). Not my kind of race or price but I can't fancy anything to beat it.
 
Euronymous said:
Fair. But have you seen who does the RPR - it's Rodway.

I do think something funny is going on with Godolphin though, the Blue Trail run I just can't understand. He was very exposed.

Ironically I'm with Noble Dynasty tomorrow and Trawlerman on Saturday (athough he's not an Appleby)
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At Epsom Blue Trail's jockey Buick got a bang on the head at the start and the horse had to be withdrawn. Then it disappointed at Ascot and I'm always saying I can forgive one bad run, and it had since been gelded so maybe that's had an impact. Go back to the run before those two races and, as I mentioned earlier, he had the beating of Wanees on their Sandown meeting, plus he's bred for better at beyond a mile.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Nice start to the day :)
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Nice one, desert, said he through gritted teeth. Godolphin have so many good horses that between them have run against almost anything that matters which means they’ve got a good handle on where they sit against almost anything.
 
Euronymous said:
Fair. But have you seen who does the RPR - it's Rodway.
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I thought Steve Mason fronted the RPRs but presumed there was a team and some computer power working on them too. RPRs are part of the official Form Book, aren't they?

I don't fully trust them - which is basically the reason I do my own - but I do keep an eye on them.
 
His two wins were in crappy novices that haven't worked out that well. The point is there were horses with far better form claims. That is a fact. He won because he's obviously good and the stable like him hence the Volt entry but the form claims were not there. Like I said, going forward I have to be very wary of Godolphin male horses in handicaps (the special carrots don't seem to work on the fairer sex as they don't have as many competitive fillies) even those who have little actual claims on form.



EDIT: And by form I mean relative to the opposition. Migdam, Assassi and Vee Sight in particular were all progressive and their previous wins had been franked very strongly. The two Godolphin's just didn't have those claims.
 
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Straight to the St Leger for New London

anyone who did the yankee already 2.75 points in front waiting on Miss Dynamic in the last

Oor Wullie booked to ride for Mark Johnston..is interesting
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Not "fact", I'd argue. Opinion. As is most interpretation of the form.
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Form boosts as opposed to let downs in form aren't an interpretation. Prior to the 3 runner affair at Ascot Warren Point's last race was this:

https://www.racingpost.com/results/15/doncaster/2022-06-03/813419

Placed horses since:
2 Liseo - 3 of 5 in a Chelmsford maiden btn 4l
3. Maktoob - 6 of 7 in a Wolves maiden btn 20l+
4. Glen Savage - 4/10 Newm hcap btn 10l

By all means back a horse on stable identity and future entries, there are multiple ways to skin a cat, but claiming he had form claims to justify his odds is just wrong.
 
Euronymous said:
His two wins were in crappy novices that haven't worked out that well. The point is there were horses with far better form claims. That is a fact. He won because he's obviously good and the stable like him hence the Volt entry but the form claims were not there. Like I said, going forward I have to be very wary of Godolphin male horses in handicaps (the special carrots don't seem to work on the fairer sex as they don't have as many competitive fillies) even those who have little actual claims on form.



EDIT: And by form I mean relative to the opposition. Migdam, Assassi and Vee Sight in particular were all progressive and their previous wins had been franked very strongly. The two Godolphin's just didn't have those claims.
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Truth, is he improved in the Ascot race (RPR's concur) despite the circumstances, and clearly improved again today.
 
Euronymous said:
Carrots
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I sympathise, Euro, but as I said earlier they have so many good horses they must have a good handle on how their horse compares to anything. Thus, apart from anything else, market movement is significant. They must find out their form against each other on the gallops. Big advantage - that and carrots :)
 
Euronymous said:
Form boosts as opposed to let downs in form aren't an interpretation. Prior to the 3 runner affair at Ascot Warren Point's last race was this:

https://www.racingpost.com/results/15/doncaster/2022-06-03/813419

Placed horses since:
2 Liseo - 3 of 5 in a Chelmsford maiden btn 4l
3. Maktoob - 6 of 7 in a Wolves maiden btn 20l+
4. Glen Savage - 4/10 Newm hcap btn 10l

By all means back a horse on stable identity and future entries, there are multiple ways to skin a cat, but claiming he had form claims to justify his odds is just wrong.
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That run was arguably a step down in class from its debut, to give it some confidence - I don't know - but it was the next race at Ascot that I took a very positive view of, which is where opinion comes into it. It may have been a three-horse race, but Israr was hot favourite, having run well against State Secret in the KGV and the two Godolphins left him trailing. Israr had previously won the London Gold Cup. I took the view that Israr had run its race. It's your prerogative to claim it didn't. It looks like RPRs took a positive view of the form too. Topspeed figures for the race were high too.

Form book comments:

- went a batter pace than is sometimes the case [in 3-horse races]
- winner could be just the type for the Melrose
- [Warren Point] pulled too hard to do himself justice, plenty of untapped potential, probably did well to finish second, and "when settling better in a strongly run race, he should be capable of showing what he is capable of."
- [Israr] looked a big danger when produced to challenge [but couldn't go with the first two in the final furlong].


It looks to me like you've dissed this race just because it was a three-runner race. That's your opinion. There will be plenty of occasions when you will be right to do so.
 
Saturday 2.45 - Forbearance 16/1, 4 places - I have this one joint-top with Sea La Rosa (13/8f) so the each-way to four places is a bit of a no-brainer. It's the type I can see Simon Rowlands putting up tomorrow evening, in which case the price will collapse. You can get 18/1 to three places.

(For those who have faith in RPRs, she's 2lbs clear of the favourite.)
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Saturday 2.45 - Forbearance 16/1, 4 places - I have this one joint-top with Sea La Rosa (13/8f) so the each-way to four places is a bit of a no-brainer. It's the type I can see Simon Rowlands putting up tomorrow evening, in which case the price will collapse. You can get 18/1 to three places.

(For those who have faith in RPRs, she's 2lbs clear of the favourite.)
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Where you getting the 4 places DO?
 
As a matter of curiosity, does anyone know what Daniel Tudhope's retainer situation is?

O'Meara has Summerghand and Gulliver in the Stewards' Cup, either of which could win on their career best form, but DT goes to Thirsk to ride for a selection of trainers, including O'Meara but also Saeed bin Suroor. Is he retained by the latter now or is he trying to get the gig with Godolphin?
 
Friday:

Bad day today, Mitgam losing and Dreamloper not even placing stung. The latter and Lusail got me thinking you just can't trust the second level of trainers. As for Migdam, I've done well with my trackers this year when they've been in fairly uncompetitive races, not so much when it's a stacked field at a big meeting. Something to think about going forward.

When prices came out for the Thoroughbred Stakes (2.25) there was a fairly large price diff between Bayside Boy and Berkshire Shadow and I took 4s about the Balding horse. They were close in behind Coroebus in the SJP and Berkshire Shadow ran well at Newmarket afterwards when finishing behind Mighty Ulysees again and also Alflaila who franked the form nicely at Ponte' last Sunday. It should be close between them again and I have them as more likely winners than Checkandchallenge who is fav for some reason I can't fathom and the German horse who is a danger on a line through Maljoom.

The Golden Mile is the biggest draw race of the year outside of Chester and I was keen on Jimi Hendrix until he was given 21/21. I got 4s on Noble Dynasty after prices were unveiled post draw and he's hard to see past as a front runner out of the 3 gate.
 
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