Beef or Salmon
Rookie
- Joined
- Sep 25, 2013
- Messages
- 1,021
He is retained by owner Clipper Logistics who he rides for in the first at Thirsk. Might be a clue in its self that they wouldn't release him.
Glorious Goodwood
- Thread starter Euronymous
- Start date
He is retained by owner Clipper Logistics who he rides for in the first at Thirsk. Might be a clue in its self that they wouldn't release him.
That explains why he rode FRESH.
barjon
Rookie
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2020
- Messages
- 3,738
It’s interesting you should say that, Euro, because that’s just what I’ve always found. I think trainers either look for a race it can win when they have seen their horse run well, or decide it’s worth chancing their arm at a bigger pot which is much less likely to succeed. I always get plenty of trackers appearing at the big meets, but rarely do I have a full bet on them - unfortunately Migdam was one of them.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Checkandchallenge
Noble Dynasty
Rebel Romance 10/11
For an Oor Wullie Treble:lol:
Noble Dynasty
Rebel Romance 10/11
For an Oor Wullie Treble:lol:
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 24,857
Thoughts for today (with edits), written on Wednesday. Some of this I posted at the time but I thought I'd collate it all here:
1.50 - This race doesn’t appeal anywhere near as much as I’d anticipated. There are no well-in hurdlers and most are pretty exposed as fairly ordinary. The chances are one of the higher weights will win on account of their class and I expect one of the top four in the table to win. Unfortunately they’re all in the top six in the betting. I’ve taken 19/2 Make My Day each-way and will leave it at that. (No BOG with that price so I've gone in again at 12s, 4 places.)
2.25 - Bayside Boy heads the market from Checkandchallenge but there’s not much in it. I might let the race go or, if I have a freebie, I’ll stick it on the Buick horse. (Bayside Boy very weak, 3/1 generally, but only a freebie will get me involved with CAC.)
3.00 - I’m very happy with my 16/1 price about Noble Dynasty. It’s now 4/1 fav (now 5/2 with Montassib out - I did mention Franklin D earlier in the thread...), likely to shorten again and is the most likely winner with its low draw. O’Meara is mob-handed and I suspect Tudhope has allowed the draw to dictate his option for Blue For You (14/1) (into 9s tops) who has strong place prospects and will carry a saver. I don’t really want to back anything with a double-digit draw but I have total respect for Sinjaari (10/1). The other bet will be Young Fire (25/1) (very weak, out to 50s, 6 places, I've gone in again, plus at 40s to 7 places, plus a small win bet on the exchange at triple-digits), also for O’Meara.
3.35 - Mitbaahy is 4/1 and disputing favouritism with Raasel (both into 7/2) but I reckon Equilateral (6/1 taken) (out to 10/1 to 4 places, taken) would have shot past him at Sandown but for repeatedly running into trouble. He wears the owner’s second colours but I’m not letting that put me off and I fancy him to beat the other one (Khaadem) who is top of the table on historical figures. Raasel is the one I fear most.
4.10 - Rebel’s Romance looks the one to beat given the strength in depth of the yard and the form they’re in this week. I’m not sure I want to back it at 15/8, though. I’ll need to sleep on this race a bit. (Odds on now. Overslept... can't back it now unless it's a freebie.)
1.50 - This race doesn’t appeal anywhere near as much as I’d anticipated. There are no well-in hurdlers and most are pretty exposed as fairly ordinary. The chances are one of the higher weights will win on account of their class and I expect one of the top four in the table to win. Unfortunately they’re all in the top six in the betting. I’ve taken 19/2 Make My Day each-way and will leave it at that. (No BOG with that price so I've gone in again at 12s, 4 places.)
2.25 - Bayside Boy heads the market from Checkandchallenge but there’s not much in it. I might let the race go or, if I have a freebie, I’ll stick it on the Buick horse. (Bayside Boy very weak, 3/1 generally, but only a freebie will get me involved with CAC.)
3.00 - I’m very happy with my 16/1 price about Noble Dynasty. It’s now 4/1 fav (now 5/2 with Montassib out - I did mention Franklin D earlier in the thread...), likely to shorten again and is the most likely winner with its low draw. O’Meara is mob-handed and I suspect Tudhope has allowed the draw to dictate his option for Blue For You (14/1) (into 9s tops) who has strong place prospects and will carry a saver. I don’t really want to back anything with a double-digit draw but I have total respect for Sinjaari (10/1). The other bet will be Young Fire (25/1) (very weak, out to 50s, 6 places, I've gone in again, plus at 40s to 7 places, plus a small win bet on the exchange at triple-digits), also for O’Meara.
3.35 - Mitbaahy is 4/1 and disputing favouritism with Raasel (both into 7/2) but I reckon Equilateral (6/1 taken) (out to 10/1 to 4 places, taken) would have shot past him at Sandown but for repeatedly running into trouble. He wears the owner’s second colours but I’m not letting that put me off and I fancy him to beat the other one (Khaadem) who is top of the table on historical figures. Raasel is the one I fear most.
4.10 - Rebel’s Romance looks the one to beat given the strength in depth of the yard and the form they’re in this week. I’m not sure I want to back it at 15/8, though. I’ll need to sleep on this race a bit. (Odds on now. Overslept... can't back it now unless it's a freebie.)
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
As I haven't had a bet and as much as I would like William Buick to win the Golden Mile 9/4 is a shockingly bad price.
Far be it for me to rain on anyones parade this is a totally different ball game to those he raced against when winning the Hamilton H'Cap.
He got a 3lb penalty for that which seems fair but there are 6 horses rated higher then him and almost all of them are drawn high
The winner could easly come from a high draw with Horses like Jimi Hendrix Saleymm and Shining Blue all likely to make a bold bid.
I'd be over the moon had I like DO taken 16/1 but I'd be very tempted to lay it off.
Far be it for me to rain on anyones parade this is a totally different ball game to those he raced against when winning the Hamilton H'Cap.
He got a 3lb penalty for that which seems fair but there are 6 horses rated higher then him and almost all of them are drawn high
The winner could easly come from a high draw with Horses like Jimi Hendrix Saleymm and Shining Blue all likely to make a bold bid.
I'd be over the moon had I like DO taken 16/1 but I'd be very tempted to lay it off.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
The high draws almost never win the Golden Mile. It's the long way round and with the rail movement the low draws also have better ground.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 24,857
Yes, I'd maybe risk a high draw if it had a huge margin over the others but that's not the case here. The fav isn't as far clear on the figures as its 'well in' status might imply but it's also a horse of huge potential.
This is my table for the race and, below it, the same table ordered by the draw:
[TABLE="width: 590"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Draw
[/TD]
[TD]Horse
[/TD]
[TD]Weight
[/TD]
[TD]OR
[/TD]
[TD]MON
3-9-6
120+
[/TD]
[TD]Notes
[/TD]
[TD]RPR
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 13
[/TD]
[TD] Saleymm
[/TD]
[TD]9-8 3ex
[/TD]
[TD]102
[/TD]
[TD]121
[/TD]
[TD]? p
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 3
[/TD]
[TD] Noble Dynasty
[/TD]
[TD]9-3 3ex
[/TD]
[TD]97
[/TD]
[TD]120
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 16
[/TD]
[TD] Montassib
[/TD]
[TD]9-3
[/TD]
[TD]97
[/TD]
[TD]120
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 18
[/TD]
[TD] Rhoscolyn
[/TD]
[TD]9-10
[/TD]
[TD]104
[/TD]
[TD]120
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 1
[/TD]
[TD] Blue For You
[/TD]
[TD]8-13
[/TD]
[TD]93
[/TD]
[TD]120
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 12
[/TD]
[TD] Austrian Theory
[/TD]
[TD]8-9 3ex
[/TD]
[TD]97
[/TD]
[TD]120
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]113
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 5
[/TD]
[TD] Young Fire
[/TD]
[TD]9-5
[/TD]
[TD]99
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD]+?
[/TD]
[TD]114
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 9
[/TD]
[TD] Rebel Territory
[/TD]
[TD]9-4
[/TD]
[TD]98
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 7
[/TD]
[TD] Ouzo
[/TD]
[TD]9-0
[/TD]
[TD]94
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10
[/TD]
[TD] Sinjaari
[/TD]
[TD]10-0 3ex
[/TD]
[TD]108
[/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 19
[/TD]
[TD] Escobar
[/TD]
[TD]9-12
[/TD]
[TD]106
[/TD]
[TD]116
[/TD]
[TD]+
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 15
[/TD]
[TD] Revich
[/TD]
[TD]9-2
[/TD]
[TD]96
[/TD]
[TD]116
[/TD]
[TD](118e)
[/TD]
[TD]114
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 11
[/TD]
[TD] The Turpinator
[/TD]
[TD]8-13
[/TD]
[TD]93
[/TD]
[TD]116
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[TD]114
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 6
[/TD]
[TD] Eilean Dubh
[/TD]
[TD]8-13 3ex
[/TD]
[TD]93
[/TD]
[TD]116
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 2
[/TD]
[TD] Orbaan
[/TD]
[TD]8-7
[/TD]
[TD]87
[/TD]
[TD]116
[/TD]
[TD]121e
[/TD]
[TD]116
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 21
[/TD]
[TD] Jimi Hendrix
[/TD]
[TD]8-7 3ex
[/TD]
[TD]95
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 22
[/TD]
[TD] Shelir
[/TD]
[TD]9-9
[/TD]
[TD]103
[/TD]
[TD]114
[/TD]
[TD]+
[/TD]
[TD]111
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 14
[/TD]
[TD] Fast Medicine
[/TD]
[TD]8-8
[/TD]
[TD]88
[/TD]
[TD]114
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 4
[/TD]
[TD] Lawful Command
[/TD]
[TD]8-3
[/TD]
[TD]91
[/TD]
[TD]114
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]111
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 20
[/TD]
[TD] Shining Blue
[/TD]
[TD]9-6
[/TD]
[TD]100
[/TD]
[TD]113
[/TD]
[TD]p AN
[/TD]
[TD]113
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 8
[/TD]
[TD] Bolthole
[/TD]
[TD]8-2
[/TD]
[TD]90
[/TD]
[TD]113
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]112
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 17
[/TD]
[TD] Positive
[/TD]
[TD]9-11
[/TD]
[TD]105
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 590"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Draw
[/TD]
[TD]Horse
[/TD]
[TD]Weight
[/TD]
[TD]OR
[/TD]
[TD]MON
3-9-6
120+
[/TD]
[TD]Notes
[/TD]
[TD]RPR
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 1
[/TD]
[TD] Blue For You
[/TD]
[TD]8-13
[/TD]
[TD]93
[/TD]
[TD]120
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 2
[/TD]
[TD] Orbaan
[/TD]
[TD]8-7
[/TD]
[TD]87
[/TD]
[TD]116
[/TD]
[TD]121e
[/TD]
[TD]116
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 3
[/TD]
[TD] Noble Dynasty
[/TD]
[TD]9-3 3ex
[/TD]
[TD]97
[/TD]
[TD]120
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 4
[/TD]
[TD] Lawful Command
[/TD]
[TD]8-3
[/TD]
[TD]91
[/TD]
[TD]114
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]111
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 5
[/TD]
[TD] Young Fire
[/TD]
[TD]9-5
[/TD]
[TD]99
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD]+?
[/TD]
[TD]114
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 6
[/TD]
[TD] Eilean Dubh
[/TD]
[TD]8-13 3ex
[/TD]
[TD]93
[/TD]
[TD]116
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 7
[/TD]
[TD] Ouzo
[/TD]
[TD]9-0
[/TD]
[TD]94
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 8
[/TD]
[TD] Bolthole
[/TD]
[TD]8-2
[/TD]
[TD]90
[/TD]
[TD]113
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]112
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 9
[/TD]
[TD] Rebel Territory
[/TD]
[TD]9-4
[/TD]
[TD]98
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10
[/TD]
[TD] Sinjaari
[/TD]
[TD]10-0 3ex
[/TD]
[TD]108
[/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 11
[/TD]
[TD] The Turpinator
[/TD]
[TD]8-13
[/TD]
[TD]93
[/TD]
[TD]116
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[TD]114
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 12
[/TD]
[TD] Austrian Theory
[/TD]
[TD]8-9 3ex
[/TD]
[TD]97
[/TD]
[TD]120
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]113
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 13
[/TD]
[TD] Saleymm
[/TD]
[TD]9-8 3ex
[/TD]
[TD]102
[/TD]
[TD]121
[/TD]
[TD]? p
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 14
[/TD]
[TD] Fast Medicine
[/TD]
[TD]8-8
[/TD]
[TD]88
[/TD]
[TD]114
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 15
[/TD]
[TD] Revich
[/TD]
[TD]9-2
[/TD]
[TD]96
[/TD]
[TD]116
[/TD]
[TD](118e)
[/TD]
[TD]114
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 16
[/TD]
[TD] Montassib
[/TD]
[TD]9-3
[/TD]
[TD]97
[/TD]
[TD]120
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 17
[/TD]
[TD] Positive
[/TD]
[TD]9-11
[/TD]
[TD]105
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 18
[/TD]
[TD] Rhoscolyn
[/TD]
[TD]9-10
[/TD]
[TD]104
[/TD]
[TD]120
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 19
[/TD]
[TD] Escobar
[/TD]
[TD]9-12
[/TD]
[TD]106
[/TD]
[TD]116
[/TD]
[TD]+
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 20
[/TD]
[TD] Shining Blue
[/TD]
[TD]9-6
[/TD]
[TD]100
[/TD]
[TD]113
[/TD]
[TD]p AN
[/TD]
[TD]113
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 21
[/TD]
[TD] Jimi Hendrix
[/TD]
[TD]8-7 3ex
[/TD]
[TD]95
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 22
[/TD]
[TD] Shelir
[/TD]
[TD]9-9
[/TD]
[TD]103
[/TD]
[TD]114
[/TD]
[TD]+
[/TD]
[TD]111
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 24,857
If I'd backed the Superjack horse in that opener I wouldn't be happy with the jockey.
Beef or Salmon
Rookie
- Joined
- Sep 25, 2013
- Messages
- 1,021
Put a proper jockey on that Norwegian horse and he would have been bang there.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 24,857
I'm afraid I can suppress the pedant in me no longer...
FFS, commentators, Escobar is NOT pronounced 'Eskybar'
(Mulrennan excused - she's getting it right.)
FFS, commentators, Escobar is NOT pronounced 'Eskybar'
(Mulrennan excused - she's getting it right.)
Last edited:
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 24,857
Three of the principals in the Golden Mile were drawn in the bottom four. Two of the ones I backed were drawn 3 and 5 and were gubbed. I didn't even back Blue For You each-way.
So, bad race for me but really chuffed for Outsider who's been making the case for Orbaan all season.
O'Meara - five runners, 1st, 2nd, 7th, 8th and 9th. He doesn't half target this race.
So, bad race for me but really chuffed for Outsider who's been making the case for Orbaan all season.
O'Meara - five runners, 1st, 2nd, 7th, 8th and 9th. He doesn't half target this race.
Last edited:
Has to be the biggest plot ever.
Has to be the biggest plot ever.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Saturday:
I like three Sat, no winners yet on the week though.
Trawlerman - I backed this at Newmarket and he got a horror ride at the back on the inside. He was 8s when decs were made and I was happy to take that. The only angle I have is a step up in trip will suit and with a claimer on I do believe he is on a winning mark.
First Folio - One of my longest standing trackers. I actually have him in an ante-post ew trixie with Cam Young (Open) and Mishriff (Juddmonte) so just placing will be a really good result. He ran well from a bad draw in the Wokingham and is consistent - I just hope the draw hasn't fucked him.
Emily Dickinson - Should be clear fav for the Lillie Langtry. Her form with Rosscarbery is the best on offer here and she will relish this test. I've got 5/2 and she should be 13/8.
I like three Sat, no winners yet on the week though.
Trawlerman - I backed this at Newmarket and he got a horror ride at the back on the inside. He was 8s when decs were made and I was happy to take that. The only angle I have is a step up in trip will suit and with a claimer on I do believe he is on a winning mark.
First Folio - One of my longest standing trackers. I actually have him in an ante-post ew trixie with Cam Young (Open) and Mishriff (Juddmonte) so just placing will be a really good result. He ran well from a bad draw in the Wokingham and is consistent - I just hope the draw hasn't fucked him.
Emily Dickinson - Should be clear fav for the Lillie Langtry. Her form with Rosscarbery is the best on offer here and she will relish this test. I've got 5/2 and she should be 13/8.
Dunno O: you can question why he was held up of a non-too searching pace at Ascot, (No bet in today's race but watched the replay a few times) but the front ranktoday turned the taps on coming down the hill, and left the door open for a few from further back.Pretty sure the sectionals will tell a similar story.
Fortuity, rather complicity, imho.
ps; re duplicated posts - clear your cookies, it worked for me.
Last edited:
Disagree, Reet.
As soon as I watched Orbaan repeatedly trapped in the Golden Mile last season;: full of running with nowhere to go, I promised myself that I would be backing him in this year's race.
But, you know, I just couldn't believe how they campaigned this fellow since. It has been nothing short of remarkable (I wonder if the stewards made comment, asked any questions) how they've firstly got his mark down to a miserly 87 when he ran off 101 in last year's Having got that mark, they've continually run him over 7f - too short for him- but managed tp keep him framing, keep his OR at 87 for the last 5 runs, then, somehow, got him into the race itself at the bottom of the handicap. On the day itself, they make sure he didn't do his customary dwelling in the stalls, keeping him handy on the inside all the way round and ready to strike at the right time.
He murdered them!
Let's nominate O'Meara for the wilyest (one way of putting it!) trainer of the year.
As soon as I watched Orbaan repeatedly trapped in the Golden Mile last season;: full of running with nowhere to go, I promised myself that I would be backing him in this year's race.
But, you know, I just couldn't believe how they campaigned this fellow since. It has been nothing short of remarkable (I wonder if the stewards made comment, asked any questions) how they've firstly got his mark down to a miserly 87 when he ran off 101 in last year's Having got that mark, they've continually run him over 7f - too short for him- but managed tp keep him framing, keep his OR at 87 for the last 5 runs, then, somehow, got him into the race itself at the bottom of the handicap. On the day itself, they make sure he didn't do his customary dwelling in the stalls, keeping him handy on the inside all the way round and ready to strike at the right time.
He murdered them!
Let's nominate O'Meara for the wilyest (one way of putting it!) trainer of the year.
edgt
Senior Jockey
Running the horse over 7f would help him go the pace in a top mile race .
Brilliant training feat no doubt; great ride also .
Brilliant training feat no doubt; great ride also .
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 24,857
His previous career best form entitled him to very close consideration but he'd have been vulnerable to a big improver (eg Noble Dynasty) and there was nothing in his form that entitled him to win like he did and if they knew he was going to win like that then surely Tudhope would have picked him. I think things just played into his hands on the day and we'll probably never see a performance like it until next year's race...
I also think, going forward, that Noble Dynasty will go on to show that today's run was no reflection of his ability. He'll be 6lbs worse off in the handicap if he goes for the Clipper Logistics but if he does show up there with Buick riding he will definitely carry some sickness insurance.
Hiya Des.
You write:
" there was nothing in his form that entitled him to win like he did"
Of course, there most certainly was: last year's race! If you review it, you'll see he was desperately unlucky after being stopped when absolutely hacking in behind off a mark of 101. Yesterday, he raced off 87, as I've pointed out. The fact that he didn't win off this mark leading up to the race doesn't mean that he wasn't capable any longer: the races were too short and they were saving him for his big day. It was an uncanny piece of canny training.
I might concede that things fell right, as they do need to in a race like that, that he got a very good draw and that he just managed to squeeze into the weights.
As for the riding arrangement: well they wouldn't be the first stable to put the stable jockey on the 'wrong one' would they?
This race has been the the plan for a whole year, imo and me and Outsider have been following his wily progress for months and months. Yes, you need luck to win any big handicap but I don't accept your genral opinion on this one, my friend.
You write:
" there was nothing in his form that entitled him to win like he did"
Of course, there most certainly was: last year's race! If you review it, you'll see he was desperately unlucky after being stopped when absolutely hacking in behind off a mark of 101. Yesterday, he raced off 87, as I've pointed out. The fact that he didn't win off this mark leading up to the race doesn't mean that he wasn't capable any longer: the races were too short and they were saving him for his big day. It was an uncanny piece of canny training.
I might concede that things fell right, as they do need to in a race like that, that he got a very good draw and that he just managed to squeeze into the weights.
As for the riding arrangement: well they wouldn't be the first stable to put the stable jockey on the 'wrong one' would they?
This race has been the the plan for a whole year, imo and me and Outsider have been following his wily progress for months and months. Yes, you need luck to win any big handicap but I don't accept your genral opinion on this one, my friend.
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Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 24,857
Sorry, yorick. I've watched last year's race again and, while I would agree that he was going well through the race, he had plenty of time to get into top gear and had room to do so. He was beaten over six lengths - about 14lbs - so wouldn't even have run to his mark.
I'll accept that his 2020 York win would have maybe seen him placed in last year's race but great plotter though O'Meara is, I'm not convinced he plotted it up for two years. He couldn't have been confident he'd even make the cut this year and Tudhope opted for Blue For You.
I'm pleased your faith in the horse - and, indeed, your instincts - have been rewarded but I still think the race just went his way today. I'll be rating him as running to his 2020 win - which I'd stripped out of my own ratings records because he hadn't got within 8lbs of it in umpteen outings in the two years since - and taking the rest of the race on its own merits.
These are the decisions our P/L fate live or die by
I'll accept that his 2020 York win would have maybe seen him placed in last year's race but great plotter though O'Meara is, I'm not convinced he plotted it up for two years. He couldn't have been confident he'd even make the cut this year and Tudhope opted for Blue For You.
I'm pleased your faith in the horse - and, indeed, your instincts - have been rewarded but I still think the race just went his way today. I'll be rating him as running to his 2020 win - which I'd stripped out of my own ratings records because he hadn't got within 8lbs of it in umpteen outings in the two years since - and taking the rest of the race on its own merits.
These are the decisions our P/L fate live or die by
Opinions, opinions.
When interference takes place is often key to the effect it has, you'll agree and it's my opinion that what happened in the race last year took him out of his stride at just the wrong time. The jockey tried but then had no choice but to accept defeat and this, imo again, contributed to the margin of defeat. I wouldn't take the 6L too literally.
In any event, they wrangled him into the race off a stone lighter this year and that was no accident. I accept the old boy may have some ideas of his own but I'm convinced today was the long term plan after last year's interference.
I would agree that he wouldn't be one to rely on totally but hey, who cares? He did the job and I'm happy to accept that my race reading is up to scratch and my eyes didn't deceive me in last year's race. You write 'instincts', inferring I've been a very lucky boy whereas I would contend that my racing eyes are impeccable lol.
Opinions, eh?
Thanks for the response, old boy.
When interference takes place is often key to the effect it has, you'll agree and it's my opinion that what happened in the race last year took him out of his stride at just the wrong time. The jockey tried but then had no choice but to accept defeat and this, imo again, contributed to the margin of defeat. I wouldn't take the 6L too literally.
In any event, they wrangled him into the race off a stone lighter this year and that was no accident. I accept the old boy may have some ideas of his own but I'm convinced today was the long term plan after last year's interference.
I would agree that he wouldn't be one to rely on totally but hey, who cares? He did the job and I'm happy to accept that my race reading is up to scratch and my eyes didn't deceive me in last year's race. You write 'instincts', inferring I've been a very lucky boy whereas I would contend that my racing eyes are impeccable lol.
Opinions, eh?
Thanks for the response, old boy.
The way I saw Des or at least i saw it when outsider pointed it out was he was hampered last year he'd more or less missed the kick and he still finished 6th which is in bookies terms is technically placed. He was 13lb? better off this time around and 33/1 at the time i got to him so for me at least that's a no brainer e/w. I think there is a danger that sometimes you can think ones being plotted up when its actually just gone at the game but I personally thought he'd showed enough in his last couple of races to say that wasn't the case. I don't think anybody could of expected him to win in the fashion that he did because i don't think he's won by that far in his life. Personally i don't think its a year long plot either as he's looked to have been running on his merits i dare say as the day got nearer even O meara would of been thinking he was gonna miss the cut. The only plot eye can see is just outsider waiting in the wings for the right time to pounce and as usual he nailed it.
Tbh from the looks of it the whole forum has had a decent Galway/Goodwood bash plenty of winners and big priced placers flying about that's the main thing.
Tomorrow or today as it is now looks a very tough day.
Tbh from the looks of it the whole forum has had a decent Galway/Goodwood bash plenty of winners and big priced placers flying about that's the main thing.
Tomorrow or today as it is now looks a very tough day.