Hennessy

Blacklion and Native River sandwiched Definitly Red at Wetherby back in February and that horse is 6/1 for the Rehearsal off 142. He looks a more sensible bet than either given how less competitive that race is than the Hennessy.
 
i can't remember now Dan..but i know i liked the profile in a big way..its probably earler in the thread..me and DO were chewing cud about it

lets be honest though..such as this are lottery races where when you get the winner you have yoursen on you did well..when in fact most of time you a lucky ass to get winner

i'll sling 20 at it and hope for the best..there will be other stuff on the day way more important to me re being serious punting

i'll be sticking with Native..will buy some guinness's for xmas..thats all the race is worth betting wise,,,but as a spectacle.its cracking
 
I agree, love these type races but would never go in balls deep. Best bet of the weekend will be in an uncompetitive Fighting Fifth.
 
that fighting fifth is a shadow of its former self Euro isn't it?..ffs...they might as well turn it back into a handicap..what is the story behind the handicap period do you know?..it went from major race to handicap..then back to non handicap//i missed what went off in that period

oh yes..i love the hennessey big stuff..but i'd never make money out of it without backing 6 or 7 usually..its just too hard..i'd rather lay a complete no hoper at 7/4 than even attempt to get the winner of it with one pick
 
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EC1 said:
i can't remember now Dan..but i know i liked the profile in a big way..its probably earler in the thread..me and DO were chewing cud about it

lets be honest though..such as this are lottery races where when you get the winner you have yoursen on you did well..when in fact most of time you a lucky ass to get winner

i'll sling 20 at it and hope for the best..there will be other stuff on the day way more important to me re being serious punting

i'll be sticking with Native..will buy some guinness's for xmas..thats all the race is worth betting wise,,,but as a spectacle.its cracking
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Fair enough EC.

They are competitive for sure but at the same time they are where up and coming stars can cut their teeth. Makes for a great spectacle all round dial if not the biggest betting get heat.

Euronymous said:
I agree, love these type races but would never go in balls deep. Best bet of the weekend will be in an uncompetitive Fighting Fifth.
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No I certainly wouldn't either. Playing ante post as you have has been the sole play for me as well.
 
we all love watching these races..its what this game is all about...every saturday during the jumps there is something really spesh to watch ..even if its not at this level..whereas on the flat..you might get 3 races a season ..if lucky..that are spesh..but not as dramatic as the jumps visually..i'll wager every weekend from now up til March we see a race that really excites us...each one of us will have a weekend jumps race that makes us go..wow..that was pretty good+

i love both codes..but jumps is visually the biz..and emotionally as the winner has usually been around longer than the mother in law..but you have a closer connection to the horse than the mother in law
 
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just had a gander at my nonsense form breakdown..its bollox but it keeps me happy

yes i can see he is a little weak on the slower it gets..you might have something

i have him as very good on easy ground..but if its bottomless..not so good

mmm..good point young Bear..i'm assuming you a young Bear..sorry if not

you have made a valid point i think
 
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Yes, it's not about going balls-deep in a betting sense. But it is a deeply important race in that it brings together established and novice chasers and often impacts on the rest of the season.

And yet it wasn't that long ago that there was a discussion on here about its not being a race worth following.

It's a race I've loved since watching Red Candle and Red Rum fight out a stirring photo finish but I was already being indoctrinated about it by my father who was a lot more fearless a punter than I could ever be.

I honestly believe this could be the hottest renewal for many a year. It might not have a Denman but I think it has more potential winners than any renewal I remember rating. I can usually narrow it down to two or three at the most and be reasonably confident I won't be far wrong but so far I've backed three from a value angle and they wouldn't necessarily constitute my short list!

This race is almost like Christmas come a month early - not financially but as far as anticipation and excitement are concerned.
 
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Native River

<colgroup><col width="226"><col width="21"><col width="133"></colgroup> <tbody>
[TD="width: 226, bgcolor: #EEEEEE"] Good [/TD]
[TD="width: 21, bgcolor: #EEEEEE"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 133, bgcolor: #EEEEEE"] 1.18 [/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #EEEEEE"] Easy [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #EEEEEE"]
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #EEEEEE"] 1.20
[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #EEEEEE"] Slow [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #EEEEEE"]
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #EEEEEE"] 0.83 [/TD]

</tbody>
 
All his best form is when the word 'good' has appeared in the going description. Note I say a little concerned. At 6/1 in such a competitive handicap due diligence is an essential process.
 
you are right ..if its bottomless he comes up as below par..below par don't win henneseys..lets see what happpens ground wise..if it does dry a bit he won't mind give..just not give the fookin lot
 
Hard to see it being that soft on Saturday. Looks pretty dry for the rest of the week although the track might not drain quite as quickly as in warmer weather.

Or is it mild down there? It's been brass monkeys up here for days. The couple of inches of snow we got at the weekend has only just cleared.
 
EC1 said:
HEAD OF THE MARKET – 8 of the last 10 winners were priced at 10/1 or shorter.

this stuff belongs in a bin doesn't it?..well fook me..most winners were 10/1 or shorter..really..how unusual....fookin hell..they kiddin..most races have winners that were 10/1 or shorter...a bit like saying..all winners had 4 legs
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But in this case we are not talking about all races are we , we are talking about one race The Hennessy and if I wanted to follow that stat alone , and I acknowledge that not all stats work every time, nothing works every time, , I could argue I have an 8 in 10 chance of success if my selection is 10-1 or under which immediately eliminates 22 of the 28 runners.

May turn out that way, may not, but that would be my choice and doesn't warrant the condescending, arrogant, disrespectful and belittling responses you made just because it doesn't fit you own criteria.
 
Diamond Geezer said:
I like a good trend

http://myracing.com/hennessy-gold-cup-trends-2016/
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I can't see them as the site is barred by my work, but I would say that I always like to stick my stats into a venn diagram type analysis before using them all on a race.

I use trends exclusively at the Festival, but I only use those that return 9 or 10 out of 10 winners. Start using too many 8/10's and you find that you've eliminated all of the past winners!!
 
Desert Orchid said:
Hard to see it being that soft on Saturday. Looks pretty dry for the rest of the week although the track might not drain quite as quickly as in warmer weather.

Or is it mild down there? It's been brass monkeys up here for days. The couple of inches of snow we got at the weekend has only just cleared.
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Latest Turftrax readings, DO:

Newbury
H: Soft Good to Soft in places C: Good to Soft Soft in places

No rain forecast between now and Saturday.
 
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Diamond Geezer said:
Had to google that,may experiment with it just for interest, how time consumning is it simmo ?
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Depends on what you already know about the previous winners - if you're using a spreadsheet like I know you have for the Festival, then mark each relevant cell in red where it fails to meet the criteria - a picture will soon emerge if every year has something in red.
 
I for one value DG's contribution to this forum and I'm sure there's plenty who would support that.

Abuse like that should not be tolerated in any walk of life. I hope you are removed from the forum for that outburst.

Disgraceful.
 
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