Irish Derby Weekend
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about the Pretty Polly
Promising Lead, very good run in a ground she didnt like.Nice mare
Mad About You boosting the form of the 3yo generation
Yesterday
Shahim , the best 2yo I have seen this year, looks a small type but what an engine.
Promising Lead, very good run in a ground she didnt like.Nice mare
Mad About You boosting the form of the 3yo generation
Yesterday
Shahim , the best 2yo I have seen this year, looks a small type but what an engine.
And she won, but however impressive she was today.
Mark my words, French Riviera and Tartan Bearer are a maximum stakes double tomorrow.
New Approach will need wings to catch TB tomorrow, he has improved since Epsom and the Curragh was made for him.
Powerscourt
At the Start
Good to see Septimus winning on a day his sire Sadler's Wells, champion sire in Britain and Ireland no less than 14 times, was inducted into the Irish Derby Hall Of Fame.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
I read on Final Furlong that New Approach doesn't run.
Front page on the RP site now
I backed Tartan Bearer last night at 5/2 as I felt the runes were indicating NA as a non-runner and I felt TB's price would collapse this morning - it's now in to 5/4 and people are lumping on
Hope you make a mint Chris
I backed Tartan Bearer last night at 5/2 as I felt the runes were indicating NA as a non-runner and I felt TB's price would collapse this morning - it's now in to 5/4 and people are lumping on
Hope you make a mint Chris
Gamla Stan
At the Start
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Definitely, 37% reduction factor on Betfair so I'd reckon a 40p rule 4 at least.
Definitely, 37% reduction factor on Betfair so I'd reckon a 40p rule 4 at least. [/b][/quote]
I thought as much.
Dry night here though there are some dirty looking clouds about.
So is this a penalty kick for Tartan Bearer?
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Curtain Call now interests me. I knew he wouldn`t act at Epsom after watching his trial and on this course he has a chance and is worth a small punt at 10/1
Cannot have Curtain Call anymore....not sure he is good enough and now I have doubts about his temperment.
He should have run in the valuable race at Ascot.
I think its between the first two in the betting, with Frozen Fire being by far the most interesting outsider.
He should have run in the valuable race at Ascot.
I think its between the first two in the betting, with Frozen Fire being by far the most interesting outsider.
I reckon Curtain Call had a ready made excuse in the plate at Epsom. It normally pays to be prominent at Epsom, and the importance of being there are there abouts at Tattenham is well documented (historically). Spencer does alright on the straight course, but on the round course his record is risible (2 wins in 5 years). It's comparable to Chester where his style seemingly leads to him struggling too
I'd agree with Gal's assessment there, regarding all three. I don't think Curtain Call will quite get the trip anyway, though he should on breeding of course.... He seemed to go out very quickly at Epsom and it's hard to believe it was *only* the track which stopped him [or Frank!]
God I hate Rule 4s, I will never understand them. I think anyone's bets should stand until a horse is def stated to be NR :angy: I always discount that sort of factor as it seems so unfair and illogical! If I strike a bet at a price, I expect it to be honoured! That Betfair should apply them is scandalous imo - I'd never really clocked that they did
as it would not really have concerned me before, as I usually bet well antepost OR on the day
God I hate Rule 4s, I will never understand them. I think anyone's bets should stand until a horse is def stated to be NR :angy: I always discount that sort of factor as it seems so unfair and illogical! If I strike a bet at a price, I expect it to be honoured! That Betfair should apply them is scandalous imo - I'd never really clocked that they did
as it would not really have concerned me before, as I usually bet well antepost OR on the day
rorydelargy
At the Start
Definitely a rule 4 for you Headstrong ~ the market would have been "day of race" since final declarations, in this case Friday. Sometimes swallowing the rule 4 is the best thing to do if you believe that your selection is going to be backed to the exclusion of all else, but mostly you should wait for the EPs to see if anyone stands out.Originally posted by Headstrong@Jun 29 2008, 09:51 AM
Front page on the RP site now
I backed Tartan Bearer last night at 5/2 as I felt the runes were indicating NA as a non-runner and I felt TB's price would collapse this morning - it's now in to 5/4 and people are lumping on
Hope you make a mint Chris
Edit: just saw your reply. Rule 4 is not a bookies' rule per se and is there to protect the punter in principle; suppose you had backed a non runner on the day - you'd surely want your money back wouldn't you?
rorydelargy
At the Start
I'm with you in principle Chris with Tartan Bearer, but to say you weren't worried about New Approach is a bit much surely? I'd say his presence gave you value, but he would still have been a danger, wouldn't you say?
By the way, do you intend to press up today ~ I can't think that Skybet would have laid you too big a bet, although that's none of my business. They certainly won't lay me anything substantial.
davidjohnson
At the Start
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- 3,434
Haven't seen it reported greatly, but didn't Curtain Call sweat his Derby away in the prelims? I don't like his 2-y-o form mind, and I think it's easy to pick holes in it and don't se how he'll be good enough today. I'd be campaigning him for the Leger if he were mine.
I'm with you in principle Chris with Tartan Bearer, but to say you weren't worried about New Approach is a bit much surely? I'd say his presence gave you value, but he would still have been a danger, wouldn't you say?
By the way, do you intend to press up today ~ I can't think that Skybet would have laid you too big a bet, although that's none of my business. They certainly won't lay me anything substantial. [/b][/quote]
Only £150 Ew and £100 Ew,
But I'm happy to take around £1000 out of it. Would get back most of my Highland Legacy losses then.
I don't see him value at 5/4 now, and struggle to get on at shorter odds than bigger odds I find.
Like easily get laid 100 or 150 ew on a 5s or 6s shot, try getting 500 - 1000 on an Even money shot and they don't wanna know.
have had a saver 100 RFC with Curtain Call, as I see him the biggest danger. Had Winchester not appaled at Ascot, I would have been place backing him as well.
In fact no - given the choice between those opetions, I'd rather lose the money on the NRs than lose 40% of my winnings just because a hotly fancied horse OTHER people have backed is a NR.
I take the risk when I back a horse antepost it won't run - I'm prepared to do that across the board. It infuriates me when eg some creature plays up in the stalls and is withdrawn, then I lose some huge % of my winnings on a 'good thing' I've sussed out at 16/1
Could give you a few reason's to why he ran bad at Epsom, but I don't think I should air them on a public forum.
A couple of things came to light afterwards and he is now a good 5 - 10% better than Epsom. A longer straight will also suit him better, as well as the assistance of a jockey on top.
In fact no - given the choice between those opetions, I'd rather lose the money on the NRs than lose 40% of my winnings just because a hotly fancied horse OTHER people have backed is a NR.
I take the risk when I back a horse antepost it won't run - I'm prepared to do that across the board. It infuriates me when eg some creature plays up in the stalls and is withdrawn, then I lose some huge % of my winnings on a 'good thing' I've sussed out at 16/1
[/b][/quote]Must say Heads, I disagree.
In all due respect, I understand the £5 - £10 punter saying that, but if I placed 2 or 3 hundred on something and it didn't run I would be annoyed not to get a return.
I don't mind the rule four as 9/10 times it works out more beneficial than the reformed market. What I contest is that you lose the terms of the bet you originally took. That is how I think it should be done.
You take 10/1 ew 1,2,3 1/4 odds, then theres a 14/1 non runner, my horse is now 10/1 - 1,2,3 1/5,
Suddenly pre 5% deduction, my place bet is hit from 5/2 to 2/1, so I'm in theory much worse off.
I think they can increase the percentages to what they should be no problem. Anyone mathmatically minded can tell you the percentage ratio on a market but I haven't the time to explain. But on basis under current rulingwe are getting 5% more value on a Evs money shot withdrawn than we should be. That said should enhance percentages be bought in, I would like to see bookmakers honouring the terms you agreed upon placing the bet.
To say non runner, no money back would have me very careful on backing in 2yo maidens. they tend ot be my biggest bets but knowing I wouldn't get refunded if my horse bolted to the start or unseated its rider, or didn't go in the gates, in what is a high risk race, then that would seriously question my opinion to back 2yo's on debuts.