Irish Derby Weekend

Originally posted by chrisbeekracing@Jun 29 2008, 12:04 PM
Could give you a few reason's to why he ran bad at Epsom, but I don't think I should air them on a public forum.
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I bet they're connected to the change of jockeys, fnar fnar. :suspect:
 
Originally posted by rorydelargy+Jun 29 2008, 11:18 AM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (rorydelargy @ Jun 29 2008, 11:18 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-chrisbeekracing@Jun 29 2008, 12:04 PM
Could give you a few reason's to why he ran bad at Epsom, but I don't think I should air them on a public forum.
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I bet they're connected to the change of jockeys, fnar fnar. :suspect: [/b][/quote]
Actually they are not.
 
You must be having a laugh Headstrong. How often do you see in the racecard - 'Trainer declares horse will only run if ground is suitable.' How can you back that horse or lay another horse in the race without knowing whether such horses will run or not.
 
Originally posted by davidjohnson@Jun 29 2008, 11:22 AM
You must be having a laugh Headstrong. How often do you see in the racecard - 'Trainer declares horse will only run if ground is suitable.' How can you back that horse or lay another horse in the race without knowing whether such horses will run or not.
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Well obviously I wouldn't back that horse til the morning before if not the hour before :rolleyes:
And I don't lay horses anyway.But I do understand that my needs and preferences are not likely to coincide with those of the big/professional punters so are unlikely ever to prevail!

I might want to back something a day or so before a race, having looked at the card and found one which I think is grossly overpriced. That is the kind of circumstance in which *I* have my biggest bets, and I find it maddening when I lose winnings in those circs on a Rule 4, having discounted the Favourite / short-priced-fancy anyway.
 
Originally posted by Headstrong+Jun 29 2008, 11:30 AM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Headstrong @ Jun 29 2008, 11:30 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-davidjohnson@Jun 29 2008, 11:22 AM
You must be having a laugh Headstrong. How often do you see in the racecard - 'Trainer declares horse will only run if ground is suitable.' How can you back that horse or lay another horse in the race without knowing whether such horses will run or not.
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Well obviously I wouldn't back that horse til the morning before if not the hour before :rolleyes:
And I don't lay horses anyway.But I do understand that my needs and preferences are not likely to coincide with those of the big/professional punters so are unlikely ever to prevail!

I might want to back something a day or so before a race, having looked at the card and found one which I think is grossly overpriced. That is the kind of circumstance in which *I* have my biggest bets, and I find it maddening when I lose winnings in those circs on a Rule 4, having discounted the Favourite / short-priced-fancy anyway. [/b][/quote]
Thats just common practice Heads.

If you think a horse should be 3/1 and your normal stake is £100, and its 4/1 I would have £133 on it, whilst if it was 5/2, I would only stake around £80.

You stake to the value of the horse.

Redford for me on Saturday I put in 5/1, so only had half my stake on him at 5/2, but for me Mezzanisi was a evs shot, so getting 7/4 and 2/1 I doubled up.

Thats the best way to bet, as the price determines your stake and if you believe it should be shorter you stake more as its value, if you think it should be bigger, you dont have more on to accommodate you do the opposite and stake less to cover.
 
Without taking this thread totally of course, but how are you losing winnings? If a certain horse has come out of the race, it obviously means that the chances of the other horses has increased, so therefore the odds need to be adjusted. This thread reminds me why I'm glad I no longer manage a betting shop!
 
Originally posted by davidjohnson@Jun 29 2008, 11:46 AM
Without taking this thread totally of course, but how are you losing winnings? If a certain horse has come out of the race, it obviously means that the chances of the other horses has increased, so therefore the odds need to be adjusted. This thread reminds me why I'm glad I no longer manage a betting shop!
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I don't disagree with the Rule 4, I agree with it, but I personally don't see why the terms of a bet should change.

End of the day, you have been penalised for the non runner, in accordance to its increase in chance, why should you be penalised twice.

Betting near the off on Betfair's place market, is the only way to back each way I find nowadays.

1.34 a place Redford yesterday, 4 places. 7/4 on course to back each way 3 places. I know what I would be happier taking.
 
Originally posted by davidjohnson@Jun 29 2008, 11:46 AM
Without taking this thread totally of course, but how are you losing winnings? If a certain horse has come out of the race, it obviously means that the chances of the other horses has increased, so therefore the odds need to be adjusted. This thread reminds me why I'm glad I no longer manage a betting shop!
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LOL That's funny - I see what you mean

As I said above, where it REALLY annoys me, the chance of my horse has NOT been increased by the withdrawal of a short priced favourite, in my mind, because I'd already decided that the short-odds horse was NOT going to win. I took 16/1 on my long shot, and I want THAT price, not some arbitrary price set after I've backed, due to something well overpriced not running!!

Obviously not the case in the Irish Derby as I do think NA would have run and won without the injury so he wasn't overpriced in that sense
 
Originally posted by Headstrong@Jun 29 2008, 01:26 PM
[
REALLY annoys me, the chance of my horse has NOT been increased by the withdrawal of a short priced favourite, in my mind, because I'd already decided that the short-odds horse was NOT going to win.
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By "NOT going to win" surely you mean is poor value? I`ve gone in on Getaway in the big race in France today opposing the favourite who i still would put as the most likely winner of the race - it`s just that his price overestimates his chance imo.
 
No - I mean "NOT going to win" :D eg Beefy when he was Fav for the GC.
There are any number of horses , usually in NH races admittedly, which are priced up on their connections or for reasons other than their likely prospects at the track/in the race - ie false favourites,. which makes the horse/s I fancy in those races very good value, eg when Cockney Rebel won his Guineas. So I object when the profit from my hard work is decimated by a Rule 4!

Good start today - was on Settigano e/w :clap: excuse the aftertiming -
now I can enjoy my afternoon, my starting bank was miniscule :eek:
 
I take the risk when I back a horse antepost it won't run - I'm prepared to do that across the board.
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Seriously, think about it. Can't you imagine the scale of abuse that would be possible? Just imagine when your horse doesn't load up!

Anyway, I fancy a little bit of history repeating: the Weld horse to do a Grey Swallow to the Stoute/Ballymacoll horse.
 
Well much as I'd love to see Tartan Bearer win a big one, and would hate to see Chris love another decent bet today - an Irish winner on Derby Day would be great for the locals. I was so pleased I was totally behind Grey Swallow that day - I'd made sure I watched all his races up til then even when once it meant driving off the MS to find a bookies in High Wycombe LOL. It was a great atmosphere when he won
 
That's the only time I've been to the Irish Derby too. About 2 mins before post time, some guy, who I think must have been working for one of the caterers, came rushing up to me in a panic asking "What's the name of the horse?? Some kind of bird?? Black something??".

Thankfully the penny dropped.

I hope he had his weekend's wages on it.
 
Messy race, fair do's the winner.

Tartan certainly aint ran his race there, Curtain Call looks a ten furlong horse.
 
To be fair Tartan Bearer never quite looked like he was going to do it. If anything, I thought Casual Conquest looked the biggest threat and it's disappointing he couldn't go and win it when it all opened up for him. The winner had to go widest of all - maybe he found the fastest ground :P
 
The only conclusion is that the winner lost more ground than any of them and was quickening and staying and could be better than the messy race suggests.

And of course that Volta is a 'lary bugger!'
 
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