King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes 2011

Workforce should take this. My nagging doubt is that is at his best when held up, off a fast pace in a big field. It will be a small field and the pace may be tactical.

While I was happy to take on the favourite (SYT) at Royal Ascot with Rewilding, I’m less happy to do so now. If Workforce doesn’t win I think SNA will. He has shown irrepressible raw energy in his last couple of races and it looks to me that this is coming to fruition. SNA is probably a bet for the Arc ahead of the KG, as I expect his price to shorten for the Arc after the KG whether he quite manages to win or runs a potent race in defeat.

One thing’s for sure, there will be no hiding place in this. The Derby and Arc winner Workforce would win most renewals of this (I too am not sure what went wrong with him in this last year) and he should be favourite to land this one. I’m not 100% confident though.
 
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Of course there are the two 3yos Nathaniel and Seville. Either of these would take advantage if anything is a bit off with those heading the market.

Not to mention Midday, although I guess she won’t run if Workforce does.

I see Workforce and SNA pulling clear and duelling, with Nathaniel, Rewilding and Seville detached by two or three lengths. Workforce should outgallop them if the pace is true, but SNA will probably quicken best if they are more pedestrian. The pace will be crucial… should be fascinating.
 
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SteveM said:
Of course there are the two 3yos Nathaniel and Seville. Either of these would take advantage if anything is a bit off with those heading the market.

Not to mention Midday, although I guess she won’t run if Workforce does.

I see Workforce and SNA pulling clear and duelling, with Nathaniel, Rewilding and Seville detached by two or three lengths. Workforce should outgallop them if the pace is true, but SNA will probably quicken best if they are more pedestrian. The pace will be crucial… should be fascinating.
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Not sure about SNA quickening best - he was clearly outpaced by Midday before she ran out of gas having been committed far too soon by Calamity Queally.
 
Ardross said:
Not sure about SNA quickening best - he was clearly outpaced by Midday before she ran out of gas having been committed far too soon by Calamity Queally.
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Don't know that he was outpaced by Midday. She tried to seize the initiative and got first run, but once Moore asked SNA to go he finished like a runaway train.
 
Midday handled the track. SNA didn't. SNA took an age to get going and eventually ran her down. Mostly because he's a better horse. That was my reading of it.
 
Agree with that. I also think he might have similar problems at Ascot in a small field though.

I'm all in on Rewilding and have doubled Workforce with Sarafina (Arc) If the Derby winner is victorious on Saturday he won't win in October as well.
 
Midday idled in front I thought, Clowance was too close to rate the form highly, and Midday was well held in Ireland next time. That form needs plenty of improving on to make him a King George winner imo.
 
Is there not a danger that Workforce possibly has Ascotitis in the same way Makfi did?

His only poor run came at Ascot and I don't buy the he'd been trained too hard for the race guff. I'd be very wary of backing him round there again.

If Seville wasn't acting as a pacemaker, he'd arguably be a big price in this. Ran a blinder last Thursday.

Rewilding for me unless it throws it down all week, then Nathaniel.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Midday handled the track. SNA didn't. SNA took an age to get going and eventually ran her down. Mostly because he's a better horse. That was my reading of it.
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I disagree - it was very notable that Ryan Moore said absolutely nothing about him not handling the track . He was simply left for dead early in the straight and then she got caught as he stayed on.

On the other hand I will be utterly gobsmacked if Misty for Me beats Midday six lengths in the Nassau indeed I will be surprised if she beats her at all . Midday did not turn up in Ireland on Curragh soft just as she did not in Sariska's Irish Oaks - the last time she was beaten very easily
 
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Rewilding is a massive bet at 100-30. He was a massive bet at 5-2...

His defeat of SYT at Ascot is the best form, and course form at that. Workforce just doesn't excite me, especially not at Ascot, and what is SNA's form worth really? Beat trees at Chester, and then Midday, who whilst being one of my favourite fillies of all time, wouldn't be a short price to win this...
 
The drift is related solely to the fact that it's now a 3-horse race. Both he and SNA have drifted markedly on the back of Workforce's inclusion.
 
From memory when Rewilding was 5-2, Workforce was around 7-1 (i.e. a 12.5% chance of winning), presumably to reflect his uncertain participation. Now he's 6-4 (a 40% chance of winning).

All things being equal you'd expect Rewilding to drift from 5-2 to around 4-1 in those circumstances, and SNA to drift from evens to around 2-1. Not far off exactly what's happened. Unless my maths is out...
 
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BennyB said:
Rewilding is a massive bet at 100-30. He was a massive bet at 5-2...
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Is he though? I have him somewhere between second and fourth for this.

In fact I can't see any value in the market for any of them as things stand. The value was Workforce before the rain this week, but that has gone now.
 
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The further SNA drifts the more I'm having on he is going to love the dig and the uphill finish. As i said before I'm convinced Rewilding is going to blow out in these conditions.
 
I will admit the ground is a bit of a worry for Rewilding. I still think he'll win though, but I'm less confident than I would have been on better ground. I'm waiting for 4-1 to top up...
 
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