Ladbrokes World Hurdle - Build Up

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SteveM said:
But his highest ratings have come when he has run the furthest. RPR of 167 last time for example, 2lb superior to his Champion Hurdle run and 8lb better than his best at 16 furlongs.
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Are you trying to f*cking wind me up?

If so, you are doing a grand job. :D

Horses who can show 160+ form at 2m and 2m4f are much more prevalent. Oscar Whisky, Solwhit and Hurricane Fly are three right off the top of my head. The point about 3m form still stands.
 
Grasshopper said:
Are you trying to f*cking wind me up?

If so, you are doing a grand job. :D

Horses who can show 160+ form at 2m and 2m4f are much more prevalent. Oscar Whisky, Solwhit and Hurricane Fly are three right off the top of my head. The point about 3m form still stands.
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It's you that's having a laugh surely?! Why bring 3m form into it when he hasn't be tried at the trip.

The further he goes the better he is. So my question (to Euro and anyone else who has an answer) is why do people doubt that OW will get the trip? Many seem to doubt it, but why? He's bred to get further and has improved for stepping up. Why shouldn't he get further still and perhaps improve again for so doing? I'm genuinely interested in this as it seems almost ingrained in many people that he won't stay.
 
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Nicky Henderson says Oscar Whisky is "99.9% certain" to run in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle at Cheltenham.

...time to be piling on for the Champion? :)
 
SteveM said:
The further he goes the better he is. So my question (to Euro and anyone else who has an answer) is why do people doubt that OW will get the trip? Many seem to doubt it, but why? He's bred to get further and has improved for stepping up. Why shouldn't he get further still and perhaps improve again for so doing? I'm genuinely interested in this as it seems almost ingrained in many people that he won't stay.
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Fear of the Cheltenham hill I suppose. If this was three miles round Aintree stamina wouldn't be an issue. I think he'll stay and I also think Big Buck's is vulnerable this year. Dynaste has got him at it and I don't think that animal is anywhere near as good as Grands Crus was last season. But he's grey and trained by Pipe so people think he's a similar. If BB hits a flat spot I think OW or MDH will take him and the only reason I'm not on the former is because the latter is three times his price.
 
Steve..i think Grassy is saying that a horse that is capable of high ratings but not winning at 2 mile is displaying more speed than stamina..and as such when they get to 3 miles they run out of steam

yes they may get higher ratings at 2.5 miles...but that is probably becuse that is their trip

taking your argument to the extreme would be like saying..a horse that is just short of pace at 5f..should be absolutely fine at 12f

when in fact 7 or 8f is more like it
 
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Euronymous said:
Fear of the Cheltenham hill I suppose. If this was three miles round Aintree stamina wouldn't be an issue. I think he'll stay and I also think Big Buck's is vulnerable this year. Dynaste has got him at it and I don't think that animal is anywhere near as good as Grands Crus was last season. But he's grey and trained by Pipe so people think he's a similar. If BB hits a flat spot I think OW or MDH will take him and the only reason I'm not on the former is because the latter is three times his price.
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Thanks.This isn't a million miles from how I see it. I've just got this feeling that Oscar Whisky is too good not to win something at the Festival, although it's a big ask to expect him to take BB.
 
EC1 said:
Steve..i think Grassy is saying that a horse that is capable of high ratings but not winning at 2 mile is displaying more speed than stamina..and as such when they get to 3 miles they run out of steam

yes they may get higher ratings at 2.5 miles...but that is probably becuse that is their trip

taking your argument to the extreme would be like saying..a horse that is just short of pace at 5f..should be absolutely fine at 12f

when in fact 7 or 8f is more like it
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Okay. I’m sort of following your line of thinking here. Do you mean “a horse that is capable of high ratings but not winning at 2 mile is displaying more speed than stamina”, or have you got this back to front? Surely a horse that can run to high ratings but not win at 2 miles in the context of NH is displaying more stamina than speed.

Otherwise I take your point that he may be best at 2.5 miles. But I’d like to give him the chance to go further. Many people seem adamant he won’t stay. I can’t see how they can tell this. I suspect they are repeating the sort of truism in racing that is assumed before proved and often turns out to be foundless. I see no evidence that he won’t stay and until proved otherwise I’ll stick with him for the World Hurdle as there must be a premium in his price from those who assume he won’t stay.
 
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SteveM said:
Okay. I’m sort of following your line of thinking here. Do you mean “a horse that is capable of high ratings but not winning at 2 mile is displaying more speed than stamina”, or have you got this back to front? Surely a horse that can run to high ratings but not win at 2 miles in the context of NH is displaying more stamina than speed.

Otherwise I take your point that he may be best at 2.5 miles. But I’d like to give him the chance to go further. Many people seem adamant he won’t stay. I can’t see how they can tell this. I suspect they are repeating the sort of truism in racing that is assumed before proved and often turns out to be foundless. I see no evidence that he won’t stay and until proved otherwise I’ll stick with him for the World Hurdle as there must be a premium in his price from those who assume he won’t stay.
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yes sorry..more stamina at 2..but not enough for 3
 
There's a book on that very subject by Ben Aitken called "Narrowing The field" Art - might be worth a read if you're interested in the dosage index and NH racing.

Martin
 
The point I'm actually trying to make is this:

If Oscar Whisky was in against Five Dream, Dynaste and Mourad, his chances of 'staying' 3m would be pretty good. His chances of 'staying' the trip are not dimished by the addition of Big Buck to this field, but his chances of 'winning' are - because horses capable of running to 160+ at 2m, 2m4f and 3m are very rare indeed.

Plenty horses are capable of 160+ form at 2m and 2m4f i.e the aforementioned Hurricane Fly and Solwhit, as well as OW himself.

Plenty of horses are capable of 160+ form at 2m4f and 3m i.e. Limestone Lad, Iris's Gift and Grand Crus.

Where are the horses capable of 160+ form at all three trip? We can go back as far as we like and the numbers are puny.

OK, it's essentially a trends/statistical argument, but it's one which carries a degree of merit, imo. And even if Oscar Whisky can run up past 160, that might still see him beaten by a dozen lengths.

Euro, Dynaste had Big Bucks no more "at it" than many other front-runners have when he's hit a flat spot.

I can understand why people would want to look elsewhere, as BB's peice is very narrow, but trying to get the jolly turned over is pretty-much futile, imo, and in a W/O Big Buck's market, I'd not be looking to take short-odds about an unconfirmed stayer like OW. There are better options out there, imo.
 
Euronymous said:
But he's grey and trained by Pipe so people think he's a similar..
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A tad patronising that, Euro.

At no point have I said he is a 'simiar' animal to Grand Crus, only that Pipe knows what it takes in a world hurdle to get one ready to give BB a challenge after last year, and may have one that can do the same this year. I never said they were identical animals.

Grand Crus was a pipe inmate all along, whereas Dynaste came from France.

And unlike doubts about Oscar Whisky re-trip, Dynaste must have improved stones when stepping up to 3M on his first outing this season at Haydock.

He may not have appreciated the soft ground at Ascot, or possibly just doesn't like a right handed track, but he closed the losing distance by 12 lengths with BB's on better ground at Cheltenham on only his sixth start over hurdles.

You just keep looking for other E/W or W/O betting opportunities against the favourite mate, such as MDH.
 
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Grasshopper said:
The point I'm actually trying to make is this:

If Oscar Whisky was in against Five Dream, Dynaste and Mourad, his chances of 'staying' 3m would be pretty good. His chances of 'staying' the trip are not dimished by the addition of Big Buck to this field, but his chances of 'winning' are - because horses capable of running to 160+ at 2m, 2m4f and 3m are very rare indeed.

Plenty horses are capable of 160+ form at 2m and 2m4f i.e the aforementioned Hurricane Fly and Solwhit, as well as OW himself.

Plenty of horses are capable of 160+ form at 2m4f and 3m i.e. Limestone Lad, Iris's Gift and Grand Crus.

Where are the horses capable of 160+ form at all three trip? We can go back as far as we like and the numbers are puny.

OK, it's essentially a trends/statistical argument, but it's one which carries a degree of merit, imo. And even if Oscar Whisky can run up past 160, that might still see him beaten by a dozen lengths.

Euro, Dynaste had Big Bucks no more "at it" than many other front-runners have when he's hit a flat spot.

I can understand why people would want to look elsewhere, as BB's peice is very narrow, but trying to get the jolly turned over is pretty-much futile, imo, and in a W/O Big Buck's market, I'd not be looking to take short-odds about an unconfirmed stayer like OW. There are better options out there, imo.
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But are you comparing apples with apples?
Most of the better hurdlers pursue a chasing career when stepping up to 3m, and there are any number of chasers that proved capable of big figures at both 2m and 3m. That the same rationale doesn't apply to hurdlers is a function of the dearth of prize money and opportunity, rather than ability.
Fwiw, there is nothing in Oscar Whisky's form that suggests to me he won't be equally adept, if not better, at 3m rather than 2.
 
Grey said:
Steve, does the dosage index not work for NH racing?
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No. The Dosage is calibrated for Flat racing. Ben Aitken has used Dosage for NH racing for his own purposes, but was advised by Dr Roman and myself that he was barking up the wrong tree.
 
Irish Stamp said:
There's a book on that very subject by Ben Aitken called "Narrowing The field" Art - might be worth a read if you're interested in the dosage index and NH racing.

Martin
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The book confines itself to saying that the more stamina points in the Dosage profile the further a horse will stay. In the crudest of terms this should hold true, but any attempt to adapt it to NH where the qualifying chef-de-race stallions are selected due to their prepotent influence on the Flat at Flat distances, has virtually no value.
 
reet hard said:
Fwiw, there is nothing in Oscar Whisky's form that suggests to me he won't be equally adept, if not better, at 3m rather than 2.
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Fair enough reet, but there is nothing in his form that says he will be equally as adept at 3m - let alone better - is there?

Anyone backing OW is backing him blind (insofar as his stamina is concerned) against the best 3m hurdler we've probably ever seen. As I said, if Oscar Whisky was going in against the likes of Mourad, then it's a different argument. But that fact is that he isn't - he's going in against Big Buck's, and would therefore needs to improve by several lbs on anything he has shown previously, to get the Stewart horse beat.

Clearly, there is a chance that this will be the case, but is it a 5/1 chance? Not for me it isn't, for all the reasons I've given in previous posts. And I would be in no hurry to take 7/4 in the W/O Big Buck's market either.
 
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Grassy
I don't doubt that OW is up against it taking on Big Bucks: I do doubt your assertion that good 2m horses don't make good 3 milers - they just don't stick around long enough, in the hurdle division, if they can jump fences.
Again fwiw, Oscar Whisky showed he hadn't the speed to catch Overturn at Ascot, but also left little doubt he would have done - over a piece further. I'd be surprised if he isn't at least the 2nd half of a World Hurdle forecast.
 
reet hard said:
I do doubt your assertion that good 2m horses don't make good 3 milers - they just don't stick around long enough, in the hurdle division, if they can jump fences.
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Yep, maybe so, reet.

gain fwiw, Oscar Whisky showed he hadn't the speed to catch Overturn at Ascot, but also left little doubt he would have done - over a piece further. I'd be surprised if he isn't at least the 2nd half of a World Hurdle forecast.
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You're basically siding with proven class over proven stamina, which is not an unreasonable position to adopt if you think BB is vulnerable. I personally think BB is nailed-on, and prefer to have one with confirmed stamina on-side, with a view to landing a Place or W/O Big Buck's bet. A mild philosophical difference and no more. :cool:
 
Mikael D who has many followers on here is the choice of Ruby tomorrow and would really want to be giving Mourad a comfortable beating tomorrow if he has serious WH aspirations

The evens is tempting me
 
granger said:
Mikael D who has many followers on here
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There all misguided I'm tellin yer. I'll love it, love it if Mourad bursts MDH bubble.

It's called tough love, then we'll all know who Big Bucks main rival for the big one is.

I reckon Dynaste could be a 9/1 chance by tomorrow night.:):):)

hahaha it's sqeaky-bum time.
 
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Agreed.

Then again people thing Big Bucks is one of the all time greats, makes you wonder where they get this sort of attitude from.
 
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