Lockinge Stakes
- Thread starter Ardross
- Start date
EC1
On a break
Canford Cliff's best run is beating Premio Loco 3.5 lengths - 'shudders'
you seem to have missed the fact he cruised past RVW against a pace bias .but thats what you do when you are biased
if you think he is a mid 120's horse then i expect you have put your whole bank on laying him Saturday
good luck with that..hope it wins for you as i will just be watching race
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trackside528
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Completely and utterly disagree with this.
On his very next run in the Morny, Aqlaam proved beyond any doubt that he is a cast iron 120 horse at the least. In the QEII he was sent off at a suicidal gallop that he was never going to be able to maintain; using the Ascot race to denigrate Aqlaam is beyond farcical in my opinion.
This is all reinforced by the fact that Virtual ran virtually to the pound with Aqlaam in the Morny.
Goldikova may not have ran to that level on any occasion last year (I am not arguing she has) but I can't for the life of me see how anyone can crab the Marois form.
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EC1
On a break
he is 120 horse every now and then basically...when G beats him easily..he is..but when RVW does it easier..he isn't
whats farcical to me is that people seem to know for sure which Aqlaam turns up in which race..its clear as day it is..but only clear when bolstering up their fav hoss
EC1
On a break
Led, varied pace early, quickened entering straight, ridden and headed well over 2f out, soon hung left and held, eased (op 8-1 tchd 7-1)
Pressed leader, led over 3f out to over 2f out, ridden and soon left behind
he also did the same against G..the pace horses weakened..so your argument about why RVW beat him so easily is also valid in the G race
he ran too fast too early in both races..so why is G's a valid 6 length thrashing and RVW's 15L not?
the truth is..he burned himself in both races..just a bit more in RVW's
this exaggerated G's superiority ..as it also did to a greater degree in RVW's race
so using a burned horse for a marker isn't really very enlightening is it?
Pressed leader, led over 3f out to over 2f out, ridden and soon left behind
he also did the same against G..the pace horses weakened..so your argument about why RVW beat him so easily is also valid in the G race
he ran too fast too early in both races..so why is G's a valid 6 length thrashing and RVW's 15L not?
the truth is..he burned himself in both races..just a bit more in RVW's
this exaggerated G's superiority ..as it also did to a greater degree in RVW's race
so using a burned horse for a marker isn't really very enlightening is it?
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trackside528
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In that case, why not use Virtual (held up last in the Marois), beaten 11 lengths (rating 117) and subsequently beaten 4.5 lengths in the Morny?
Or is an 'OXO horse' as well?
Or is an 'OXO horse' as well?
EC1
On a break
then shall we go to the next horse..and the next..until it fits the rating required?
you just said that Aqlaam was rock soild..he isn't.
like i said..if folk want to think G is a mid 130's or whatever..then all power to them
trackside528
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We're never going to agree on this. You said the pace horses 'faded'; despite the fact that Goldikova was never more than a couple of lengths behind Aqlaam, I simply pointed out that if you rate the race through the third home (held up) you get pretty much the same figure.
I'm not asserting that Goldikova is a mid-130's mare; 132 (sunybay's figure) looks about right to me.
Video of the 2009 Marois, by the way:
http://world-horse-racing.blogspot.com/2009/08/prix-jacques-le-marois.html
EC1
On a break
But G wasn't on the pace exactly was she
i don't know why 125 is deemed poor for a filly tbh..it seems so important that G is a 130 horse
anyway..its one of those where we aren't going to agree..and tbh PB always marks G for me..we know he was a good marker for a long time..and G never hammered him enough to be a 130 horse..imo
NO CC hasn't run a massive rating figure..but against RVW he was pace disadvantaged and still run past him comfy..not many were going to do that to RVW especially when he was on the front of a steady pace
you can't rate it accurately..but you know its pretty good..more than a mid 120's anyway..imo
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Sea Pigeon
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Anyone backing CC at 5/6? watching brief for me
suerunner
At the Start
I like Dick Turpin but also intrigued by Worthadd - can't imagine he's come from Italy just on a fishing trip. Should be a good race.
On The Bridle
At the Start
Twice Over at 6/4 or above in the place Market will do for me.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Gamla Stan
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Agree about Worthadd but the form behind Rio De La Plata suggests he's not up to troubling a genuine Group One miler like Dick Turpin.
swedish chef
At the Start
imo The ground is currently g/firm and this will favour Canford Cliffs, the only advantage Dick Turpin has is the fact he's had a run and proven he's trained on. Unless there's significant rain before the race I would only be hopeful rather than confident now, although I still think D.T is the one to beat.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
That's enough to justify a bet imo. It's not like he hasn't acted on fast ground.
EC1
On a break
Zacinto isn't shit though..he ran some decent races...and also Aqlaam totally collapsed in that race..which he did against G..but just to a lesser degree
So ..when RVW won at York off an unfavoured pace against Twice Over..he wasn't as good?
i think if i remember correctly EVERYONE thought his win at York was an exceptional effort to win from where he did off a slow pace on front runner favouring course
i think your arguments are flawed on this tbh Euro
I also don't like the vibes form the Hannon camp re today..i wouldn't touch todays race with a bargepole..I could see both his losing and a load of excuses given afterwards..i hope thats not the case..but the race isn't a betting medium to me..conflicting messgaes from the betting for a start
Gamla Stan
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Euronymous
Senior Jockey
trackside528
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Don't think we'll ever come together on this!
The difficulty is that Aqlaam was evidently a fragile animal that didn't stand a great deal of racing, but I'm of the opinion that he showed in his two French runs that he was capable of 120 when on song.
Just looking at the video of that Marois, I don't buy your view that the pace totally collapsed either. She probably didn't run to the same figure last year, but that is neither here nor there really.
EC1
On a break
The excuses are coming in pre-race from the Canford fans!
i'd check back..i never said he would win today..i said he's the better horse of the two
i'd love him to win today but I'd never back ANY horse odds on in a G1..a total mugs game..and there is little market confidence in CC compared to earlier in the week..Hannon giving him a warm up?..Hannon not knowing his arse from his elbow how fit CC actually is..CC as fit as fiddle and ready to run for his life?
does anyone actually know whats going to happen today?..looks like total guesswork to me..hence no bet..I'd rather back Twice Over than the Hannon pair
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EC1
On a break
you making me laugh mind you..on a board drenched in excuses for too numerous to count Irish hotpots over the years..for me to be accused of making excuses is good un
15l or 6l....i think beatings by these margins are not really worth comparing or drawing conclusions from either way
Love to see CC run today. A classy animal that i dont think we have seen the best of. Cant really understand why they are running twice over in this myself, but on other hand where are those Hannon slaggers on the forum now that Dick turpin is taking on his stablemate?
G
Gearoid
Guest
7 runners, 2 places. Punters going to be short changed again.