Novice Chasers 2009/10

You can still get 10/1 on Riverside Theatre which I think is an absolute steal. Sports Line best price 12/1 from what I can see
 
davidjohnson said:
Can see Sportsline doing the donkey work a bit freely, still in front at the second last where Captain Cee Bee departs but swallowed up between the last 2 by Sizing Europe who powers up the hill to silence the doubters. Happy Days!
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I think you have it pretty much spot on DJ - I also think Sizing Europe is the type of horse that will drift right up to the day and including Tuesday itself so I would hold off for a better price.
 
Sports Line jumps Captain Cee Bee into the deck, Sizing Europe finds nil off the bridle, and the leader stays on strongly to repel all other challengers..........
 
granger said:
Sizing Europe jumps them all to death, then finds more up the hill Sportsline could fall early, seems too headstrong to me
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I think the only horse that can stop SE is riverside theatre, can see them both jumping the last together. Sommersby will be outpaced but staying on for 3rd.
 
Captain Cee Bee jumped very well in his last two races apart from an unlucky fall at the last at Leopardstown and a last fence fiddle at Naas.

At Cheltenham he will have the assistance of a jockey who will look for a big one at the last and he will sail over it, stick his neck out and peg back anything that's still in front of him going up the hill.
 
I can't stop going back to Sizing Europe's run in the Champion Hurdle a couple of years ago. He just didn't seem to get home up the hill and I think that could happen again this year. Captain Cee Bee has form around Cheltenham so he is the pick horse for me. Is Osana still going for the Arkle too?
 
Justin Redman said:
I can't stop going back to Sizing Europe's run in the Champion Hurdle a couple of years ago. He just didn't seem to get home up the hill and I think that could happen again this year. Captain Cee Bee has form around Cheltenham so he is the pick horse for me. Is Osana still going for the Arkle too?
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Sizing Europe stopped before the hill - plus he has won over the course already.
 
By tony o'hehir 3:02PM 4 MAR 2010
MIKAEL D'HAGUENET has been ruled out of the Cheltenham Festival, thus ending speculation that last season's star novice hurdler would go for either the Arkle Trophy or the RSA Chase without having had a run this season.
The Willie Mullins-trained six year old was priced between 12-1 and 25-1 for the Arkle and between 10-1 and 14-1 for the RSA.
Speaking on Thursday afternoon, Mullins said: "Mikael D'Haguenet has been a bit stiff and sore following his schooling session at Leopardstown on Sunday and it has been decided that he won't be going to Cheltenham.
"While we were happy enough with the way he jumped at Leopardstown, it was his second racecourse school in the space of a few days and he did not come out of it as well as we had hoped.
"There are no plans yet and whether he will run this season, maybe at Fairyhouse and/or Punchestown, or will be kept until next season, is a decision we will make in the next few weeks."
A six-time winner for Mullins as a novice hurdler last season, Mikael D'Haguenet achieved three Grade 1 victories including the Ballymore Novices Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival and the Land Rover Champion Novice Hurdle at Punchestown. He has not raced since that Punchestown festival success in May.
Mikael D'Haguenet, who finished second over fences as a four-year-old in France, was prevented from going novice chasing this season first by a splint problem and then by a muscular injury which he suffered in December.
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What apity to miss Mikael this season, maybe they will run the horse at Punchestown in a grade race , if he wins he is very good being a debutant winnign , if not and being placed he manteins his novice status for next season.
 
I think there is a chance. Its the only entry hes got at the Festival. Around 50/1 for the Arkle which could be a big price
 
Galileo said:
Sizing Europe stopped before the hill - plus he has won over the course already.
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True, but still think CCB has his measure, had him beaten at Leoptwn. Under rated horse since he got injured.

Only concern is jumping. If both CCB and SE jump well, I think they'll be one and two in that order.

With slight concerns over both however, Somersby is the rock solid jumper of the gang as far as I can see, but probably isn't as fast as the other two.
 
While it is disappointing that Mikael d'Haguenet is to miss Cheltenham, it would have been a big test for such an inexperienced jumper and taking the long view it may be for the best.
 
Long Run has flip-flopped with Punchestowns on Betfair. This has happened today and is a pretty big turnaround.
 
Indeed. The only thing that can beat him is his jockey. I I have some spare cash I would like to get on for next year's Gold Cup.
 
I find it hard to split the pair of them - so will probably end up having a few quid on the horse thats priced up the biggest on the day. Has Long Run raced on a sound surface?
 
Depends what do you mean by sound? His 2 runs in the UK have been on good to soft, and I can't see any race at Cheltenham being on quicker than this.

I would usually say you are right regarding your approach if you can't split them, but considering they are in the same stables, I think that any significant market moves for one above the other are worth noting.
 
trackside528 said:
Is Long Run a cast iron stayer over 3m at Cheltenham?
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I think they are both in the same boat - 85-90% certain to stay. They are both quite quick, but with seemingly sufficient stamina. You never know till the day and SWC will need to settle Long Run.
 
trackside528 said:
Is Long Run a cast iron stayer over 3m at Cheltenham?
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Nope.

Furthest Long Run had been before the Feltham was 22f (though in heavy ground), and with all due respect to the Feltham opposition, getting 7lbs from them over an easy 3m like Kempton, wasn't ever going to put the gun to his head in terms of stamina.

I'd say Long Run is more likley to get home over the trip than not, but Punchestowns is much more of a confirmed stayer than Waley-Cohen's horse, imo. I personally believe suggestions about Punchestowns being a questionable stayer to be bollocks, quite frankly.
 
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If you mean i was suggesting that, I wasn't - I merely said both are very likely to stay, but you never know till the day, especially at the pace the race will likely be run at.
 
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