Novice Chasers 2010/11

Hamm said:
With who out of interest Rory?
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The field, as Grasshopper suggests. I'm not suggesting he's no good, but he seemed to stutter getting one slightly wrong at Ascot over hurdles and I though he looked a little guessy when not perfect last time. It's just a hunch, but he's not a horse I'd want to back until he could prove himself in the hurly-burly of a big field. He's only beaten 4 horses over fences to date, don't forget - it's hardly conclusive.
 
I've only recently spent much time looking at the Arkle and Finian's Rainbow is a perfectly valid favourite. However, on a form line through Loosen my Load it is plain to see that Realt Dubh shouldn't be twice the price of Ghizao and that's the angle I'm using for a punt. It's a bit tenuous as chances are this price differential is more likely explained by Ghizao being awful value at this stage for the race a la Tataniano and Tatenen than RD being a stunning bet. But he battled well the other day and stays further than two miles so looks a reasonable enough ew poke.
 
Now I know we were discussing whether the PJ Moriarty is a weak G1 each year, but the Scilly Isles almost certainly is.

Since Best Mate won the race, there has been a remarkably poor role of winners:

2002Golden Goal6Norman WilliamsonVenetia Williams
2003Tarxien9Tony McCoyMartin Pipe
2004Patricksnineteenth7Tom DoylePaul Webber
2005El Vaquero7Jim CullotyHenrietta Knight
2006Napolitain5Tony McCoyPaul Nicholls
2007New Little Bric6Ruby WalshPaul Nicholls
2008Silverburn7Sam ThomasPaul Nicholls
2009Herecomesthetruth7Ruby WalshPaul Nicholls
2010Punchestowns7Barry GeraghtyNicky Henderson

And one further thing, is there any cross-thinking when planning Grade 1 races in Ireland and the UK? As far as I can make out, there are 4 G1 races at this distance in the two contries. These two, the Drinmore and the Power race. Is having two on the same day a good idea?
 
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Bar the Bull said:
Now I know we were discussing whether the PJ Moriarty is a weak G1 each year, but the Scilly Isles almost certainly is.

Since Best Mate won the race, there has been a remarkably poor role of winners:

2002Golden Goal6Norman WilliamsonVenetia Williams2003Tarxien9Tony McCoyMartin Pipe2004Patricksnineteenth7Tom DoylePaul Webber2005El Vaquero7Jim CullotyHenrietta Knight2006Napolitain5Tony McCoyPaul Nicholls2007New Little Bric6Ruby WalshPaul Nicholls2008Silverburn7Sam ThomasPaul Nicholls2009Herecomesthetruth7Ruby WalshPaul Nicholls
2010Punchestowns7Barry GeraghtyNicky Henderson
And one further thing, is there any cross-thinking when planning Grade 1 races in Ireland and the UK? As far as I can make out, there are 4 G1 races at this distance in the two contries. These two, the Drinmore and the Power race. Is having two on the same day a good idea?
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That's why the UK novices havn't been farming The PJ Moriarity so!!
 
In fairness to Patricksnineteenth, he could have been a very nice horse had he not suffered a serious injury during/after his novice career.
 
Bar the Bull said:
I reckon the Scilly Isles Chase is the worst Group 1 chase in Ireland and Britain.
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Agreed but today's is a fascinating contest. I had a vibe that Nick might have run Reve di Sivola in the World Hurdle after his poor run the other week but he isn't entered up.
 
Captain Chris looks a nice type for the Hennessy next year, looks like he needs a flat track and a bit of a trip. Betfair isn't working for me at the moment but I'm interested in the relative prices of Ghizao and Medermit. The latter a bigger threat to FR for me.

Reve actually jumped well in the main but was hopelessly outpaced from virtually the start of the race. He's only been right handed once before but blaming that seems like clutching at straws. He might need 4 miles.
 
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Ghizao actually shorter for the Arkle than FR with Coral. I think they've read those formlines wrong and the latter is a bet at 9/2. I can't have Medermit given that he doesn't exactly power home and is 0 for 2 at the Festival.
 
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Euronymous said:
Reve actually jumped well in the main but was hopelessly outpaced from virtually the start of the race. He's only been right handed once before but blaming that seems like clutching at straws. He might need 4 miles.
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Reve de Sivola is the biggest disappointment of the season for me. I was sure that he would have made a top class chaser.
 
Euronymous said:
Ghizao actually shorter for the Arkle than FR with Coral. I think they've read those formlines wrong and the latter is a bet at 9/2. I can't have Medermit given that he doesn't exactly power home and is 0 for 2 at the Festival.
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one of them beaten by a short margin after unlucky in the last hurdle, you can crab the form but on Festival adaptaion he is one to be suited to.
 
I thought he travelled great, granger, but you're right - he seems very one-paced compared to his time over hurdles, and I don't think the hampering fully explains his finishing effort. Possibly something physically amiss with him still?
 
There will have to come a time when he will run out of excuses too. First time out over fences, bounce factor, impeding horses. He has gone off at very short prices now 3 times and has failed to collect.

I don't think he travelled badly Grassy, coming to the last I thought he could do it, but he finished like a lame duck.
 
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Not impressed at all with Finians. Jumping like that will not do at Cheltenham. The upside is the henderson is more likely than most to sort it out but I am happy to be against him
 
Finian's has been pushed out for the Arkle. I agree he'd be lucky to get round jumping like that. Medermit the new favourite in some books.

MdH ran very flat again. No hope for anything over jumps at the Fesyival.
 
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Bad day all round.

I can't really see MDH being a player at the Festival now. I would hold him back till Punchestown and then give him a nice summer off.

I think the oddsmakers have over-reacted to FR's round of jumping at Warwick. He didn't go down well, was buzzy at the start and just wanted to lead. Henderson said before the race they were going to try different tactics and they just didn't work. I remember Tidal Bay having an awful time round Doncaster in the race before his Arkle but he was allowed to dictate at the Festival and I expect similar from this horse.
 
rorydelargy said:
I think Finian's Rainbow has potential jumping frailties and would love to see him tried in more competitive company before heading to the festival. He's one I'll be keen to take on at this stage.
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That's what I was concerned about - I don't understand why Hendo plans to run him in a comparative cavalry charge after pottering around in small fields learning little, but at the last look he has still trained more Festival winners than me.
 
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