Novice Chasers 2010/11

I'll start it off. The horses are in Oddschecker order. Feel free to tell me where you think I'm missing something.

Medermit Confirmed
Ghizao Confirmed
Finians Rainbow Confirmed
Realt Dubh Probably
Captain Chris Possible
Noble Prince Won't run
Mikael DHaguenet Won't run
Rock Noir Won't run
Quel Esprit Won't run
Dan Breen ?
Starluck Possible
Giorgio Quercus Won't run
Surfing Won't run
Bellvano ?
Nadiya De La Vega Won't run
Pepe Simo Won't run
Robinson Collonges Possible
 
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FR's form over 17f and less: 11111
FR's form over further than 17f: 315

In both the Challow and the Neptune he merely got outstayed. Granted his chasing career hasn't really tested him so far but he put Hell's bay firmly in his place and he has franked the form in no uncertain terms.

His latest performance was his worst and his jumping does concern me but to say he's a bridle horse is purely interpretation - Interpretation which I think is wrong and the form would support that.
 
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Interesting news about Starluck possibly being aimed at the Arkle.

This year's renewal doesn't appear to have the usual strength in depth, and he could be well worth a shot if he takes to fences.

There are lingering doubts about his staying power up the hill, but he's a classy type and it will be intriguing to see him jump a fence.
 
1990 - 14
1991 - 14
1992 - 11
1993 - 8
1994 - 10
1995 - 11
1996 - 16
1997 - 9
1998 - 16
1999 - 14
2000 - 12
2001 - No race
2002 - 12
2003 - 9
2004 - 16
2005 - 19
2006 - 14
2007 - 13
2008 - 14
2009 - 16
2010 - 12

The smallest field in Arkle history has been 8.
 
Fair point Rory, though he has won in fields of 10,11 and 13 (admittedly in his juvenile/novice hurdle days, so scraping the barrel slightly)...

EDIT - I had assumed that was a reference to Starluck being better in small fields, but I suspect you were referring to FR? Valid nevertheless.
 
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BennyB said:
Fair point Rory, though he has won in fields of 10,11 and 13 (admittedly in his juvenile/novice hurdle days, so scraping the barrel slightly)...

EDIT - I had assumed that was a reference to Starluck being better in small fields, but I suspect you were referring to FR? Valid nevertheless.
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Finian's Rainbow, indeed.
 
Azertyuiop and Well Chief were two Arkle winners who had never run in big field chases before their wins in the race. FR fits the profile of yer typical winner down to a tee. A proper chasing type whose form stands up to scrutiny when compared to his rivals and a horse who was also a very good hurdler. Ghizao and Realt Dubh weren't good enough over timber and Medermit strikes me as a horse who they've gone chasing with because he wasn't up to Champion Hurdle class.
 
Rory, you were talking about this big field for the Arkle - who are they and where are they hiding?
 
Euronymous said:
Azertyuiop and Well Chief were two Arkle winners who had never run in big field chases before their wins in the race. FR fits the profile of yer typical winner down to a tee. A proper chasing type whose form stands up to scrutiny when compared to his rivals and a horse who was also a very good hurdler. Ghizao and Realt Dubh weren't good enough over timber and Medermit strikes me as a horse who they've gone chasing with because he wasn't up to Champion Hurdle class.
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I'm not arguing with FR's profile as an Arkle candidate, I'm criticising him as an individual. :ninja:
 
No, I'm not. You said there will be a big field this year - I can't see more than 5 who you could say were near certain to line up.

The number of previous runners in the Arkle is irrelevant.

I am all for hearing negatives but this is most certainly not one, and if we go on your theory of FR and small fields, then the field size will be a plus. Regardless, it will not be a negative.
 
Hamm said:
The number of previous runners in the Arkle is irrelevant.
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No it's not. It's a much better indicator of likely field size than a guesstimate of trainers' preferences. I'm also not predicting a field of 16+ on the day, but pointing out that FR has learnt less than he might in 3 virtual schooling sessions, and that a more competitive field will leave him vulnerable due to a tendency he has for reaching for his obstacles rather than putting himself right (I admit he looks good when getting them right, and that he gets them right most of the time). He got away with it over hurdles, and has so far over fences, but I'm concerned that he won't in a competitive environment.
 
Rory, we are 4 weeks or so to the Arkle. I think any guesstimate now is much, much more of a pointer to the field size than what has happened in the past. I am not looking for a big debate on this, more to see where I may be going wrong - you think there will be a big field and that will be one of the reasons Finian's will struggle - fair enough, but surely in that case you could come up with 10/11 names at the very least of horses who are being definitely aimed at the Arkle?
 
Introduction of the new Jewson race is bound to have an effect on numbers for the Arkle (and indeed the RSA), Rory. I've no idea what the Arkle field size will be, but those stats may now have limited relevance.
 
I was going to say this is the worst Arkle I can remember, but then I remembered Tidal Bay’s...

Honestly though, none of the first three in the betting inspires me at all, especially not Finian’s Rainbow or Medermit. Ghizao’s win at the track in November was reasonable form, and if I was forced to have a bet it would be him.

It looks like a race to pick an outsider, but they all look a bit rubbish as well. I can see myself backing Starluck if he lines up, if only for the lack of other options.

Watching novice chasers develop is normally the highlight of the season for me, but they’ve just been crap this year.

Is it too early to start talking about horses which might go chasing next season??
 
Most impressed by Aiteenthirtythree today......has something of the Denman about him. Down to 12-1 for the RSA Chase, and looks the perfect type for The Hennessy.
 
michael_o said:
Most impressed by Aiteenthirtythree today......has something of the Denman about him. Down to 12-1 for the RSA Chase, and looks the perfect type for The Hennessy.
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Amazing how fences can transform some horses - he looked an absolute boat over hurdles, but no denying he is a decent chasing prospect.
 
Grasshopper said:
Introduction of the new Jewson race is bound to have an effect on numbers for the Arkle (and indeed the RSA), Rory. I've no idea what the Arkle field size will be, but those stats may now have limited relevance.
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It will be a damning indictment of the new programme if the Arkle doesn't have enough runners for each-way betting. The days of 20+ fields have gone, obviously, but I'd expect at least 9 runners, even if a few of those are short of top class. It's not incumbent on me to name the field in order to make a point.
 
rorydelargy said:
It's not incumbent on me to name the field in order to make a point.
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Of course it is! It should be an easy point to prove if it is indeed the case. Otherwise, you are only going to make me put more cash on Finian's. So, hurry up and tell me all these runners! :p
 
rorydelargy said:
Medermit is a much much better bet than Finian's Rainbow. I think FR blow out completely which is a lot more like a 4/5 shot, btw.
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With the attention centring around the first three in the Arkle market (two of which I’ve backed at different stages), I’m sweet on the idea of the hugely exciting possibility that Starluck will take part.

I’ve not been able to get NRNB but couldn’t resist taking some 33s and 25s all in yesterday and today (the 40/1 has long gone). He seems the right type to me. If he can jump we’ll be laughing.

I’ve persuaded myself that Finian’s (who I’ve backed at only 5s) won’t win and that Medermit will have his measure. However, I’ll be cheering on Starluck at these prices.
 
I was not impressed by FR at Warwick . It looked like Kilmurry might well have got back up had he not gone tragically wrong. Medermit for me too.
 
I liked Aiteen Thirtythree a lot yesterday but just feel he may set the race up perfectly for Rupert.
 
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