Novice Chasers 2010/11

That is horseshit. Lavirco has bred:
Roi du Mee (2 chase wins for Gordon Elliot)
Victorias Groom (multiple chase winner for the Lucy Wadham who isn't a saucy writer)
Lady An Co (chase winner for Nicholls)
Frolon (chase winner for Cottin in France)

And more I think.
 
SteveM said:
MdH ran very flat again. No hope for anything over jumps at the Festival.
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Looking at it again I may have been a little hard on MdH. He made very smooth progress until tangling with his stablemate. It looked to take the wind out of his sails more than I originally thought... in the circumstances he may have done ok, but I'm certainly not brimming with confidence about him. He no doubt deserves another chance to put himself right... if there is one.
 
Getting back on terms must have taken a fair bit out of him given the state of the ground. I know it wasn't bottomless but still.
 
Euronymous said:
I think the oddsmakers have over-reacted to FR's round of jumping at Warwick. He didn't go down well, was buzzy at the start and just wanted to lead. Henderson said before the race they were going to try different tactics and they just didn't work. I remember Tidal Bay having an awful time round Doncaster in the race before his Arkle but he was allowed to dictate at the Festival and I expect similar from this horse.
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Exactly how I saw it. They made several mistakes, in having him too fresh, and compounded that by trying to hold him up. It was clear from very early on he would never get into a rhythm of any sort, and whilst I am using the previous day as the benchmark for his jumping, it obviously needs improvement (no bad thing for a novice). The perfect trial, as you want to see clearly where a horse needs to improve, and they can and will work on that now.

It should have cleared up that he needs to be ridden more prominently, they will knock the freshness out of him, and he will go there with a good chance.

I couldn't back Medermit with stolen money - he looks too slow for an Arkle to me.
 
Hamm said:
I couldn't back Medermit with stolen money - he looks too slow for an Arkle to me.
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...he's a much better jumper than FR though, albeit probably not as classy. I'm a little worried about FR when his jumping really comes under pressure, as it will in the Arkle.
 
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Medermit not a horse I've ever really taken too, but to describe him as less classy than Finian's Ranbow is hard to substantiate. Medermit was second in a Supreme Novices and is a G1 winner over fences - he's achieved a lot more in his career than Finian's Rainbow ever has.
 
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Grasshopper said:
Medermit not a horse I've ever really taken too, but to describe him as less classy than Finian's Ranbow is hard to substantiate. Medermit was second in a Supreme Novices and is a G1 winner over fences - he's achieved a lot more in his career than Finian's Rainbow ever has.
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I actually think that Medermit has the best chance of winning the Arkle on what we have seen. However, FR does look very classy and promises a lot. My concern about FR is that he may not look as classy when he comes under real pressure.
 
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Finian's Rainbow's only chance of winning the Arkle will be if they run it over 3 legs and a final. As some wag said on twitter, he'll be looking around in confusion during the race as if to say "where did all these effing horses come from?"
 
Euronymous said:
Or maybe he'll just think back to the Baring Bingham last year. By wag I assume you meant clueless wanker.
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That would be the race in which he finished alongside a 999/1 shot, wouldn't it? I think the "clueless wanker" (classy) has a pretty good point - FR has deliberately been given what amounts to 3 schooling sessions, and wouldn't have beaten Kilmurry last time imo, but for that one's demise. Sorry for labouring a point.
 
Fair enough. I think Medermit is plain slow now but we'll see soon enough.

The one jockey whose opinions I take on board is Geraghty (Walsh is always defensive and paranoid about any of his mounts). Geraghty was effusive about Finian's last season, and even more so this. He clearly needs to improve but, imho, does not have that much to beat.

Is Ghizao slipping under the radar just a little?
 
Hamm said:
Fair enough. I think Medermit is plain slow now but we'll see soon enough.

The one jockey whose opinions I take on board is Geraghty (Walsh is always defensive and paranoid about any of his mounts). Geraghty was effusive about Finian's last season, and even more so this. He clearly needs to improve but, imho, does not have that much to beat.

Is Ghizao slipping under the radar just a little?
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Ghizao is a tough one - I didn't think his Cheltenham win amounted to much at the time, but he was giving plenty of weight away at Newbury, and people were still happy to tip up Captain Chris after that. He's not one to underestimate. I'd be interested if Nicholls went the Arkle route with Robinson Collonges, too, but he clearly has the option of the Grand Annual with that one.

Regarding the notion that Medermit is too slow, I can't have it at all, but I will staunchly defend your right to believe that kind of hooey.
 
rorydelargy said:
That would be the race in which he finished alongside a 999/1 shot, wouldn't it?
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That's one way of looking at it, another is FR, always a chaser in the making, was within seven lengths of a potential Champion Hurdler. And that 999/1 shot has actually turned into a decent animal himself.
 
Euronymous said:
That's one way of looking at it, another is FR, always a chaser in the making, was within seven lengths of a potential Champion Hurdler. And that 999/1 shot has actually turned into a decent animal himself.
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It's hardly a performance which proves he has what it takes to win an Arkle though, is it?
 
No, but it does prove he has decent Festival form and won't get spooked by the occasion and a biggish field, something that was inferred by the wag you quoted.
 
Euronymous said:
No, but it does prove he has decent Festival form and won't get spooked by the occasion and a biggish field, something that was inferred by the wag you quoted.
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I'd be inclined to disagree - it proved he could run respectably over hurdles. Going into a big-field novice chase is a different kettle of fish, especially as he's shown jumping frailties in a small field. He may prove up to it, but there is nothing very compelling about his credentials for such a test.
 
Rory, can you let me know who will be present (near certain runners) in the Arkle that will make it a big field?
 
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