Novice Chasers 2010/11

SteveM said:
With the attention centring around the first three in the Arkle market (two of which I’ve backed at different stages), I’m sweet on the idea of the hugely exciting possibility that Starluck will take part.

I’ve not been able to get NRNB but couldn’t resist taking some 33s and 25s all in yesterday and today (the 40/1 has long gone). He seems the right type to me. If he can jump we’ll be laughing.

I’ve persuaded myself that Finian’s (who I’ve backed at only 5s) won’t win and that Medermit will have his measure. However, I’ll be cheering on Starluck at these prices.
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I see Starluck is as low as 16/1 for the Arkle in places today.
 
Think he'll win races over fences but strikes me more as the type to do well at smaller tracks with easier fences. His pedigree and build hardly mark him down as one to go to the top. He's a twilight horse that will prove below top-class in both spheres and I don't think he'll be quite as good a chaser as hurdler.

If he were mine and I wanted to win a big race with him, I'd be targetting him at the Royal Hunt Cup. Well-run mile would suit him down to the ground.
 
What DJ is trying to say is that Starluck is a coward, a charlatan, a mountebank and a thief.......he's just too polite to say so explicitly.

I, however, am not.
 
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Exactly. We appear to have a benign hacker yanking at our chains....doing just enough to wind us up in advance of Cheltenham, but not sufficiently vindictive as to cause a lengthy outage. Hopefully he will run amok between the 2000 Guineas and the Arc, safe in the knowledge there will be no innocent victims.

* The word 'mountebank' is brought to you courtesy of Delargy Productions Inc. All rights reserved*
 
davidjohnson said:
He's a twilight horse that will prove below top-class in both spheres and I don't think he'll be quite as good a chaser as hurdler.
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he's rated in the low 160s as a hurdler (not too shabby at all) and is only six. His style suggests to me that we can be quite optimistic that he will improve on this as a chaser. Whether he'll make the adjustment in time for the Arkle is another thing, but at the prices he's been available at I'm prepared to take a good punt that he will be.

The front runners in the Arkle at best are about 160 performers so even with no improvement Starluck should be a contender. I can see half a stone improvement in him even in the short-term though.
 
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At the prices, no. He seems better on a flatter track (an easy comment to make, I know) but the thing is, if he managed to come even slightly close to his Champion Hurdle run last year, he would probably win.

Just a pity for the horse they didn't decide to go novice chasing in November.
 
Hamm said:
At the prices, no. He seems better on a flatter track (an easy comment to make, I know) but the thing is, if he managed to come even slightly close to his Champion Hurdle run last year, he would probably win.

Just a pity for the horse they didn't decide to go novice chasing in November.
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His biggest concern is surely this half-arsed campaign. The normally excellent Nick Williams admitted dropping a clanger by getting caught between two stools with Diamond Harry last season. This is a similar scenario, but with less preparation, and a horse less well-fitted to the job in hand. He's got to be odds against to get round imo. And I'm not one of the horse's knockers, either!
 
Hamm said:
Just a pity for the horse they didn't decide to go novice chasing in November.
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This is true. However, if he does take to it he'd only have to run to his hurdles rating to probably win (as you say), as the front runners in the Arkle are at best about 160 performers. I'm sure he'll show a bit of improvement as a chaser and only a few pounds improvement should see him hard to beat.
 
SteveM said:
I'm sure he'll show a bit of improvement as a chaser and only a few pounds improvement should see him hard to beat.
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I'd love to see him do so, but this logic is warped. Starluck is not particularly likely to show any improvement at all as a chaser (it's perfectly possible he will, of course, but it's not actually probable at all), certainly not within the next couple of weeks.
 
rorydelargy said:
I'd love to see him do so, but this logic is warped. Starluck is not particularly likely to show any improvement at all as a chaser (it's perfectly possible he will, of course, but it's not actually probable at all), certainly not within the next couple of weeks.
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I've already said that the caveat to this is whether he can adjust in time for the Arkle, as I agree with Hamm that they might have thought about this earlier. But at odds of 33/1 and 25/1 I'm happy to take a punt. Whether he will improve as a chaser or not remains to be seen. What I am saying is that I believe he is the type to improve as a chaser. This is the race I've always wanted to see him in you see... which is why I'm excited.
 
Bar the Bull said:
He may not need to improve much to win this Arkle. On the face of it, it looks weak.

However, he is just the type that I can see being pitched back over hurdles by Christmas.
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Fair enough. I hope you're wrong. But surely when all is said and done, these are fair prices to find out.
 
Grey said:
Seeing as they go that little bit slower in chases, the Arkle trip should be within his reach. I think he's an interesting proposition.
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I’d suggest getting on before tomorrow Grey. He’s only got three to see off, but they seem decent types and Gifford’s horse should be a good yardstick. We could be looking at single figures by the end of the week.
 
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I'm already on for small money. Like you, I think it's worth taking a small punt on it. Most horses improve their ratings sooner or later by about 10lbs when they go from hurdles to fences. The words 'most', 'sooner' and 'later' are key, however.
 
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