Novice Chasers 2011-12

Grand Crus has doen nothing wrong but what happened on Saturday at AScot is a negative form.


Join Togehter is the one I prefer once Last Instlament is out.
 
On The Bridle said:
Grands Crus looks a lump job now. I know a lot on here treat stats like fairy rings but that Feltham stat is very strong for whatever reason.
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I don't think the Feltham form was done any favours on Saturday.

I think the stat is a very strange one. Grand Crus has proven that he can win a chase at Cheltenham, as has Long Run, Joe Lively, Ollie Magern and Jair du Cochet. It is just bad luck that we haven't had a horse follow up in the RSA.
 
Join Together is very interesting. He beat Champion Court 15L over 3M2F who Grand Crus could only beat 10L, (that was admittedly over 2M5F, on Grand Crus first start of the season though).

Grand Crus has in all probabilities improved a significant amount since his first run, but you'd still have to say Join Together is open to plenty of improvement as well and hasn't had the chance to show it in a graded chase yet. With that in mind he hasn't run since December which is his only negative.

Champion Court also has form with Invictus, but sadly for these purposes Invictus didn't give his true running that day. I'd just make Join Together the Jolly's main opponent over the Mouse Morris horse and Invictus.

Couldn't put anyone off it E/W but I'll be happy to sit and watch this one!
 
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Bloody hell lads. Join Together is no use. Champion Court jumped like a hairy goat that day. Mossley hasn't done anything for the form.

Join Together finished 2L in front of foxy Curtis's yolk the last day, and I don't think he is much better than that.
 
Tell us how you see the race shaping up then guys with maybe an idea of the winner yourself.
Re Euro and Join Togethers price. Well by the same token Bobs Worth should be a 20's chance as well, in that his form is apparently overrated.
 
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Bob's Worth just looks like an animal who's been running over the wrong trip at the wrong tracks. 20's is excessive but he has done nothing to justify 7s. I won't be opposing the favourite in this race.
 
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Marble said:
Tell us how you see the race shaping up then guys with maybe an idea of the winner yourself.
Re Euro and Join Togethers price. Well by the same token Bobs Worth should be a 20's chance as well, in that his form is apparently overrated.
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I agree Marble, Bobs Worth is a shocking price. Based on his jumping this season he has no chance. However, if Henderson pulled it out of the bag and got him to jump well he would be a serious threat as he clearly has an engine.

Now that Last Instalment is out I really don't see where the threats come from apart from the other Giggy runners and you would think only one of them will run. I expect Grand Crus to take it up a fair way out and be about ten lengths clear jumping the last. Something at a big price will run into a place and I really liked Cannington Brooks performance at the weekend. His fluent jumping and experience should give him a chance of placing.
 
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I think 1833 has run like a non-stayer in the RSA, the Hennessy and the Skybet Chase. I'd like to see him tried at 2m5f or similar. He seems to travel well and the fold up very quickly entering the last 1/2 mile.

I think with Join Together, the fact that Nicholls had him down as a National Hunt type tells its own story.
 
sunybay said:
where do you see the oficail rating?
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http://www.britishhorseracing.com/goracing/blogs/handicappers.asp

The relevant bit is . . .

"The Grade 2 Betfair Game Spirit Chase at Newbury on Friday was undoubtedly the highlight of the week in the 2m to 2m5f chase division, although there were a couple of other races that pushed it close, writes Mark Olley.

It’s not often that you witness a novice treat older rivals with total contempt, especially in a Grade 2 contest, and in a new course record time, but that’s exactly what Sprinter Sacre did. Nicky Henderson’s hugely exciting novice never came off the bridle in beating stable-mate French Opera and gave me the same kind of tingle up the spine that Kauto Star did when winning the Lancashire Chase at Haydock back in 2006 prior to his first Gold Cup.

French Opera won this race last season, along with a Grade 2 at Sandown, and also ran a creditable sixth in the Champion Chase. He’s just below the very top-class 2m chasers, but is a high-class 2-miler and seldom runs a poor race.

I based the race around French Opera (162) and the third placed I’m So Lucky (150) – who received 10lb and was beaten just over two lengths by French Opera – and have them both running to their pre-race marks. This left me with the decision on what to call the facile six-length winning margin. In the end I settled on 12lb which puts Sprinter Sacre on a new mark of 169 and makes him the highest rated novice in years.

This compares favourably with recent winners of the Game Spirit – French Opera was 164 in 2011, Master Minded was 173 in 2010 and 170 in 2008, while Well Chief was 169 in 2007 (the race was abandoned in 2009). It also puts Sprinter Sacre into second place in the 2m chase division, behind the 177-rated Sizing Europe."
 
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Grand Crus 158p, 160+ and 162p in his last


Join Togther 160pin his last, in that race Mossley 148+, Champion Court 145t, FOF 128
Mossley was pulled up in his last in a race shorter than his bestm, he was a 149p over hdls
FOF went on to run a 141+ second to Sir De Ch and previosuly posted a 134p at Wth
Champion Court posted previously a 149+ when runner up to Grand Crus andafterwards won a grade race in the same course a 151p beating Solix and Invictus.



Join Togehter 146p in hisfirst chasing win at Chelt beating Restles Harry (better over hdls) and Tea For Three , both running well afterwards at Chepstow in a race where they beat by a long margin horses like Cunnington Brook (twice winning after that) and Trenchant (winner since)
Viking Blond ,also beaten and running ok against Grand Crus in his next start.
 
I started rating Join Together lower than now but revised the figuress once some horses were running, also I use the rating is usually required for the races in the big meetings and the times are not too slow either

the figures are slighlty provisional but at the moment I think Join Togehter is a much better chaser than hurdler.


About other figures I have Sprinter Sacre much higher than OR or timeform and I am confortable for the moment.
 
sunybay said:
About other figures I have Sprinter Sacre much higher than OR or timeform and I am confortable for the moment.
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I cannot understand and how Timeform still have Al Ferof as the top rated novice. I am certain that Sprinter Sacre's Newbury effort is far superior to Al Ferof's 3rd in the Victor Chandler.

My own view would be much more in line with the OR, but probably more exaggerated because I think Al Ferof might be a little overrated on the Ascot form.
 
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