Novice chasers 2014/15

The ground in all probability will be at its easiest on the Tursday. Vatour like the good horse he is will just win so Arkle or nothing is spot on Archie.
 
Euronymous said:
Too early to say, but he just doesn't strike me on iota as a Cheltenham horse
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A bit different from a massive lay then? What would be your price?
Of course, still nearly 3 months away but the opposition is looking quite thin and even a horse that doesn't like Cheltenham might get lucky in a 6 horse race. To be honest, I can see him doing a Moscow Flyer and I always like the best hurdler for the Arkle. In any case, the PaddyP offer of a free £5 bet for £20 staked when it wins before Cheltenham almost makes this a free bet.
 
So, what's your guide tissue for AP bets?

All I'm saying is that, for any race backing AP, you set up your own book with a view to the book on the day and you back the anomolies.
 
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Other than he was in a league of his own against a bunch of watch me next time horses UN DE SCEAUX victory told us nothing we didn't already know.

Personally I hope he goes for the Arkle and is ridden in the same way as he was yesterday.

I'd love to see another tearaway winner of a grade 1 chase like the Arkle. Before most of you were born a horse called Dunkirk used to set off like a bat out of hell then quicken up and very few could get anywhere near him off level weights.

Purely a selfish view and perhaps not the sort of tactics to adopt in the Arkle but fantastic to watch.....horse has certainly got speed to burn so who knows?
 
I agree that Un De Sceaux could be vulnerable to a horse that stays that also has a high cruising speed. The thing is right now I can't see what that horse is. I think it's very possible that Un De Sceaux could win just the same way as Azertyuiop won his Arkle.

The only horses that fit the bill are Josses Hill and Gilgamboa. The former has already been beaten by Ptit Zig who is more likely for the JLT, but will likely improve. The latter remains of interest and with 20's still available I'd back him each way now as my cover if I thought this was definitely his target.

Im also with a few others and I've done the UDS Arkle / Vautour JLT double.

I've covered that one with an each way bet on Ptit Zig in the JLT at 10's who has been as impressive as anything outsides the Mullins pair.
 
archie said:
So, what's your guide tissue for AP bets?

All I'm saying is that, for any race backing AP, you set up your own book with a view to the book on the day and you back the anomolies.
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I've never bothered setting up my own book, I just look for horses who look to me overpriced for whatever reason. Usually it's types who have disappointed or at least not performed as well as expected at a previous Festival but have the scope to be better over a different trip, transitioning from hurdles to fences or just prepared better in future.
 
One thing to add re Un de Sceaux. I'd like to see Willie run him beyond the minimum trip before the Festival to get him out of his comfort zone.

My big worry is what he'll find for pressure if he's eyeballed up the hill, and he's unlikely to eyeball anything between now and March. The next best thing would be to run him over a trip that puts him under pressure and give him a tough race tripwise and enough time to recover for March.
 
Euronymous said:
I've never bothered setting up my own book, I just look for horses who look to me overpriced for whatever reason. Usually it's types who have disappointed or at least not performed as well as expected at a previous Festival but have the scope to be better over a different trip, transitioning from hurdles to fences or just prepared better in future.
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Looks like we're saying the same thing then, Euro. We just disagree about the merits of UDS which is fair enough.

Maruco, I think his runs in France show that he can handle the pressure of a longer trip and keep going when challenged. He's also won at Navan which is undulating with an uphill finish.
I don't mind him going off in front as long as he's comfortable at the pace. Going slower to accommodate slower horses doesn't make much sense and would likely affect his jumping as well. People are overlooking that he thrashed a 145 rated hurdler yesterday so there's a good chance that he can be in the 160s over fences as well as hurdles.
 
granger said:
"I'd imagine he'll try to get one more run into him at least before a tilt at the Arkle Trophy at Cheltenham next March."
ruby on UDS
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was strange this as the blog he did for paddy yesterday said ""I'd imagine he'll try to get one more run into him at least before a tilt at the" and then nothing else. i thought it was just ruby being coy. :lol:

it's enough for me to have gone in on him and also done the double with vautour. i think him in the arkle is either going to be spectacular or a disaster to watch. agree with slim in that it could be a substandard renewal.
 
(2:55) 341F Racing Post Novice S'chase (Grade 1) €55,250.00 ( 2m 1f - 4yo+ )[MAX 28]


Allied Victory(127) (MFMorris) - .
.Band Of Blood(135) (MFMorris) - .
Chancol (FR) (NMeade) -
Gilgamboa (EBolger) -
Mr Fiftyone (MrsJHarrington) -
Real Steel (MFMorris) -
Sizing Granite(132) (Hde Bromhead)
Ted Veale(140) (AJMartin) -
Three Kingdoms (JFerguson (in GB)) - . .
.Valseur Lido (FR) (WPMullins) -
Vautour (FR)
Clarcam (FR)
Adriana Des Mottes (FR)
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valseur won't run, Clearcam will. Hopefully enda bolger lets his one out.
 
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Despite what happened in the second half of his debut, watching Josses Hill over the first few fences was the most excited I've been about a novice chaser outside of Vautour this year. He is a good looking, tall, well built model and he soared over the first few. His next run will be crucial in terms of confidence but I think there is huge improvement to come and let's not forget, he hammered a good horse in Dunraven Storm despite the mistakes. I've had to have a go at the current prices e/w as it's highly unlikely both the Mullins horses will run in that race and UDS a looks the more likely and I'd rather take him on. My first decent AP bet this season.
 
Yes and he looks very good but I'm convinced he'll get found out on the big day. Small field bully IMO and the price is long gone anyway.

12/1 e/w about Josses Hill is value as he's likely to turn up and will be shorter after winning a novice and a trial. I would also be nervous about UDS at Cheltenham. He could boil over and his jumping will be thoroughly tested.
 
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Ladbrokes completely overreact to defeats. They went 6/1 UDS and 16/1 Joses Hill after their defeats this seaason.
 
I wasn't quick enough to get those prices as I didn't see the race till Saturday. 12/1 is still fair.
 
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