Novice Chasers 2015/16

Don't go Ar Mad peoples, definitely won't be going to Cheltenham according to Gary Moore on Racing UK as horse doesn't act left handed.
 
Ar Mad has put in an impossible performance there..in fact the figures show he would have beaten SDG quite comfortably if he had run in the Tingle Creek.

I don't think i've ever seen this sort of performance from a novice chaser.

In each section of the race Ar Mad beat or near on equalled equalled SDG..and his finishing time from two out was an amazing 3 seconds quicker than SDG.

The times show that Ar Mad would have gone the early pace in the Tingle Creek and finished a lot quicker than SDG. Even allowing for the 5lb less he carried he can be rated off the scale if SDG has run to something like a mid 160's figure. The overall time for Ar Mad from the first fence to the finish is 4.55 seconds faster [25lbs] than SDG's time...that is impressive ...but the individual sections reveal an even more unreal picture.

Ar Mad
Fence 1 to Fence 3 = 67.0
Fence 3 to fence 7 = 47.4
Fence 7 to fence 10 = 25.7
Fence 10 to Fence 12 = 51.1
Fence 12 to finish = 27.3


Sire De Grugy
Fence 1 to Fence 3 = 67.1
Fence 3 to fence 7 = 48.1
Fence 7 to fence 10 = 25.5
Fence 10 to Fence 12 = 51.7
Fence 12 to finish = 30.6

The usual feeling with an overall time is..oh well the novice would have been having to go faster early if he had been in the tingle creek and so would have paid later......in fact exactly the opposite has happened when you see the split times.....SDG has consistently run slower in each section..bar one...and his finishing effort from 2 out was 3.3 seconds..or about 16 length slower than Ar Mad's.

Ar Mad has put in the most extraordinary run here.
 
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Definetly a horse to look forward to
Would be nice to see him have a go L-H but if not something like Punchestown would be ideal.
 
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fonz said:
Definetly a horse to look forward to
Would be nice to see him have a go L-H but if not something like Punchestown would be ideal.
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depending on what level you think SDG has run to...he is a bit more than one to follow possibly Fonz...and if they don't try him LH then they must be absolutely crazy

if SDG has only run to a 155/160 ish...which imo his finishing effort from 2 out suggests he hasn't bettered anyway ...then the novice has run 170/175..which seems incredibly high.

Bristol De Mai..who is deemed well above average has been beaten 10 lengths and As de Me 21 lengths. I'd guess that Bristol De Mai has the potential to be 150/155 chaser at this point..so Ar Mad has to be something like a potential 165 animal even ignoring the time comparison. Its going to be interesting to see what Bristol De Mai does in the next couple of outings
 
Pont Alexandre Looked really good today

Great to see him back

“He will go up in trip and not down from this. I am already under pressure from home (son Patrick) to go for the four-mile race. The sort of ability he has you would say at this stage he will be aimed at the RSA. I think he wants better ground and it would be no bother to him.
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EC1 said:
Ar Mad has put in an impossible performance there..in fact the figures show he would have beaten SDG quite comfortably if he had run in the Tingle Creek.

I don't think i've ever seen this sort of performance from a novice chaser.

In each section of the race Ar Mad beat or near on equalled equalled SDG..and his finishing time from two out was an amazing 3 seconds quicker than SDG.

The times show that Ar Mad would have gone the early pace in the Tingle Creek and finished a lot quicker than SDG. Even allowing for the 5lb less he carried he can be rated off the scale if SDG has run to something like a mid 160's figure. The overall time for Ar Mad from the first fence to the finish is 4.55 seconds faster [25lbs] than SDG's time...that is impressive ...but the individual sections reveal an even more unreal picture.

Ar Mad
Fence 1 to Fence 3 = 67.0
Fence 3 to fence 7 = 47.4
Fence 7 to fence 10 = 25.7
Fence 10 to Fence 12 = 51.1
Fence 12 to finish = 27.3


Sire De Grugy
Fence 1 to Fence 3 = 67.1
Fence 3 to fence 7 = 48.1
Fence 7 to fence 10 = 25.5
Fence 10 to Fence 12 = 51.7
Fence 12 to finish = 30.6

The usual feeling with an overall time is..oh well the novice would have been having to go faster early if he had been in the tingle creek and so would have paid later......in fact exactly the opposite has happened when you see the split times.....SDG has consistently run slower in each section..bar one...and his finishing effort from 2 out was 3.3 seconds..or about 16 length slower than Ar Mad's.

Ar Mad has put in the most extraordinary run here.
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Extraordinary is way over the top EC wasn't even special IMO

Last year Dodging Bullets was a massive average 8 seconds faster than the other five races run on the day (EXC the Henry)Indicating SDG's time may well have been very poor. Would certainly seem that way and it's not the first time SDG has clocked aslower time than a novice in this race....Hinterland was also 2 or 3 seconds faster than he was in 2013

Al Mad clocked a time only 2 seconds faster than Vibrato Valtat did last season but the latter was racing on soft ground not good to soft as Ar Mad was.

I think we just witnessed a very good horse the punters underestimated and a very poor Tingle Creek but Al Mad simply is not the next Dunkirk.
 
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Loved watching Pont Alexander in action. Great stuff from WPM yet again.

Most quote him for the RSA but JLT must also be a possibility......best wait to see which race WPM hints he'll run in then back him in the other one lol
 
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Mullins has said he goes up in trip, and that despite Patrick telling him to go for the 4-Miler with Pont (for the obvious reason), he views him as an RSA horse.

Cryptically, he also said Pont Alexandre "would have the ability to be a Coneygree", though whether this hints at the Gold Cup being a possible target, has to be considered unlikely, given the owner already has Djakadam and (possibly) Vautour for that race.
 
EC1 said:
depending on what level you think SDG has run to...he is a bit more than one to follow possibly Fonz...and if they don't try him LH then they must be absolutely crazy

if SDG has only run to a 155/160 ish...which imo his finishing effort from 2 out suggests he hasn't bettered anyway ...then the novice has run 170/175..which seems incredibly high.

Bristol De Mai..who is deemed well above average has been beaten 10 lengths and As de Me 21 lengths. I'd guess that Bristol De Mai has the potential to be 150/155 chaser at this point..so Ar Mad has to be something like a potential 165 animal even ignoring the time comparison. Its going to be interesting to see what Bristol De Mai does in the next couple of outings
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I thought Moore said they ran him LH at plumpton and he was shocking... like a 125 animal. Amazing how going the other way can improve a horse by 40!
 
with Ar Mad, he may not be the second coming but how he left Bristol so many lengths behind, the form of the race is worth alot especially how he did it. He's 30%-50% at left and right tracks, that argument is invalid from the get-go. Owner needs to overrule the trainer and give the horse a chance in March.
 
Aughex said:
with Ar Mad, he may not be the second coming but how he left Bristol so many lengths behind, the form of the race is worth alot especially how he did it. He's 30%-50% at left and right tracks, that argument is invalid from the get-go. Owner needs to overrule the trainer and give the horse a chance in March.
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Love it when someone knows more than the trainer after one quick glance at the form.:lol:
Ar Mad has hung and jumped right every time he has run LH in this country.
 
ran left handed 3 times, won well on one of those 3. Ran awful on his reappearance on the same course it won at the end of last season. Trainer had other motives to dismiss a tilt at the festival, motives made even more clear when he described SDG win more important than a festival win.
 
Extraordinary is way over the top EC wasn't even special IMO

Only time will tell really..i'll plump for special if pushed then

Last year Dodging Bullets was a massive average 8 seconds faster than the other five races run on the day (EXC the Henry)Indicating SDG's time may well have been very poor.

Not sure what you mean really..Dodging bullets won last year in overall time 240.4..this year SDG 233.9. 30 odd lengths difference. You can't really use the hurdles races in either year as the ground is different between chase and hurdles. The only other race is a 3m5 chase where overall time can be affected by pace ground whatever. So using other races to me ..where we really only have a 3m5 slog as comparison isn't great.

Would certainly seem that way and it's not the first time SDG has clocked aslower time than a novice in this race....Hinterland was also 2 or 3 seconds faster than he was in 2013

Yes he was..using first fence to finish time..3 seconds...but the slight difference that year was that the Tingle Creek was a little too swift to the 3rd fence which possible damaged SDG late on to a degree in comaprison to Hinterland..whereas Hinterland ran to the third in a time more condusive to running a good overall time. That beating of the Tingle Creek time by Hinterland though was indicative of a decent performance. We never really got to see the best of Hinterland after that or Grandouet..but Taquin De Seuil was beaten 8 lengths in that race and won 2 of his next 3 races giving him an OHR of 159 after those efforts. So to be fair that form as indicated by the time comapriosn was pretty decent even if the first two for whatever reason didn't perform afterwards..the 3rd horse did. Even Claret Cloak 4th behind Hinterland is now rated 155. The difference between Ar Mad's Tingle comparison and Hinterland's is that Ar Mad beat or equalled SDG in every split and beat his overall time a second further than Hinterland. Hinterland got a 160 when he eventually showed his form properly again..so we know he was capable on a good day of being a 160 horse...Ar Mad looks a fair bit better animal going by the splits and overall time.

Al Mad clocked a time only 2 seconds faster than Vibrato Valtat did last season but the latter was racing on soft ground not good to soft as Ar Mad was.

No he didn't...Ar Mad official time = 3m48.6......VV official time 4m0.1...i make that 11.5 seconds

I think we just witnessed a very good horse the punters underestimated and a very poor Tingle Creek but Al Mad simply is not the next Dunkirk.

I don't think the Tingle Creek is very poor really..Somersby was beaten 14 lengths by SDG..same distance SS beat him a few weeks ago

Its not vintage stuff obviously..but not poor.
 
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Talking of last year..these are the figures for the compariosn of the two races then..fair to say that that Dodging Bullets has run very efficiently with the pace run very close to par at all the markers..it was a perfect pace..VV's race slower earlier than even pace...and a faster finish later. This would be the expected see saw effect ..unlike Ar Mad..who ran faster than SDG near on throughout.

2014

Dodging Bullets
Fence 1 to Fence 3 = 70.0
Fence 3 to fence 7 = 51.1
Fence 7 to fence 10 = 27.7
Fence 10 to Fence 12 =51.3
Fence 12 to finish = 28.9


Vibrato Valtat
Fence 1 to Fence 3 = 72.13
Fence 3 to fence 7 = 50.9
Fence 7 to fence 10 = 27.9
Fence 10 to Fence 12 = 50.0
Fence 12 to finish = 27.9

this would be a comparison where it would be hard to say with any accuracy how VV would have coped in that Tingle Creek [fair to say if he had to run 2 seconds faster to keep up early his late time would have been a lot slower than DB..so would have been well beaten]...he was not asked to go the same pace as DB early..DB was travelling at an even pace to the 3rd but still ran 2 seconds faster than VV to that point...so fair to say the novice pace wasn't testing.

The key comparison with Ar Mad here though is that Ar Mad did run the same early pace as the tingle and beat SDG by significantly more than VV beat Dodging Bullets from 2 out.

Even with the slacker earlier pace..VV could only beat DB late time by 1 second.... VB is now a 162 horse...the comparison shows that Ar Mad is better by some way in his Henry V111 than VV was in his because he ran with SDG early [a significant factor] and then beat his late time by 3 seconds ..significantly more than the 1 second that VV beat DB...after VV had used significantly less early petrol.

If VV is the average sort of Henry V111 winner..which seems fair ..then the splits show that Ar Mad is significantly better than an average Henry V111 winner
 
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Mullins said the error in the Neptune was in holding PA up.......he said he is a galloper, and they should have gone on with him that day.
 
Didn't he break loose in the morning of the race too? Sure I've seen that said somewhere. I had my balls on him that day.
 
Even if his third place in the Neptune - behind two very good horses - is as good as he was over hurdles that's not too shabby a base to begin his chasing career from. Taquin Du Seuil was further behind and won the next year's JLT.

and even Denman was beaten in the Neptune (aka RSA).
 
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