Novice Chasers 2017/2018

Yanworth was beaten two lengths by a horse that won the same race Yanworth was second in the previous season. He had ground to make up and made two mistakes in the home straight and wasn't far away at the line.

How on earth do you deem him as ungenuine from that?
 
His Neptune(Baring Novices) 2nd was way better than last season winner and he's an open company G1 horse over hurdles, he should've dispatched yesterday's winner in matter of strides. I haven't watch the replay but at the last he was right behind him then simply stopped trying. I guess I'm proving you right, people will continue to underestimate Willoughby Court but Yanworth was believed to be much better than yesterday.
 
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I have to say ungenuine was a word that crossed my mind immediately after the race. He just didn't look like he wanted to go past Willoughby Court. However on reflection you have to make allowances for the fact that the winner is proven to respond exceptionally well to pressure and he picked up again as soon as Yanworth came within a couple of lengths.

In summary I wouldn't be writing Yanworth off just yet but Willoughby Court is a very likeable sort. My concern is that connections want to head down the JLT route but I'd have him in the RSA.
 
Yanworth isn’t ungenuine......he just has zero turn of foot, and ran into a very game horse yesterday, who is a stout stayer.
 
Serious exhibition of jumping there by The Storyteller at Fairyhouse. Very impressed. Looks a natural.


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Coo Star Sivola was behind those two fto when he badly needed it and ran well behind FO at Cheltenham. This year or next there's a big handicap in that horse.
 
Tanlic said:
Alan King is fuming apparently at people writing off Yanworth.

If Jamie the plonker Moore was riding him I would agree but the genius that is Barry Geraghty who is the best presenter of ahorse at a jump since John Francome was riding.

If he won't jump for barry then he won't jump for anyone.

No doubt Frank Berry has already called Yogi in an attempt to sort it out.

You can see the class is still there but trusting him is going to be difficult.

I still say the best we have seen over fences is Brain Power
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I agree about Brain Power but worry he needs to go right - handed to be seen at his best. 3 runs left handed at Aintree & Cheltenham twice and beaten 26L- 20L & 30L. I need to see him put in a great performance on a left handed track.
 
granger said:
Mia's storm might be a fine fine mare. Elegant escape just put up a good display there

wonder is she going to Kempton
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Mia's Storm - trainers target at the beginning of the season was The Mares Novice Chase Final at Cheltenham in April, he reckons she doesn't want soft ground.
 
swedish chef said:
I agree about Brain Power but worry he needs to go right - handed to be seen at his best. 3 runs left handed at Aintree & Cheltenham twice and beaten 26L- 20L & 30L. I need to see him put in a great performance on a left handed track.
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That could be down to the fact he wasn't fit when he ran in the Greatwood and the 2 Championship races came too early in his career.

I would be happier if Nico was riding him but that is unlikely being owned by Buckley
 
Presenting Percy was good yesterday - surprised they blew his handicap mark to that extent.

Given the pot that is the Irish National, i'd have aimed him that way
 
edgt said:
Irish handicapper has rated Presenting Percy 157 for Sunday, one pound higher than Total Recall, up to 156.
I wonder what Davy makes of it all.

Discuss.
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He really should be running in the RSA with that rating. I think connections will see sense.
 
I'm only just getting into looking at the novice chasers (thanks to Newbury last weekend and Sandown this weekend) but it seems ratings for novices are coming in quite high.

It seems not too long ago that they rarely got much above 150 before Cheltenham and an RSA winner wold be doing well to get above 155 but now we're seeing ratings in the 150s and into the 160s quite regularly.

These are the top 10 novice chasers on RPRs, as published in the Weekender:

Finian's Oscar 163
Brain Power 162
Ballyoptic 161
Black Corton 161
Death Duty 160
North Hill Harvey 160
Presenting Percy 160
Sceau Royal 158
Rathvinden 157
Willoughby Court 157

Are they being brought along more quickly nowadays with the ever-increasing importance of the Festival or were the historical ratings too low?
 
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Interesting that no-one is bitching about Finians Oscar running at Sandown after the Tizzards said he would go to Cheltenham next week. Brain Power odds gone from 4/5 to 13/8.
 
archie said:
Interesting that no-one is bitching about Finians Oscar running at Sandown after the Tizzards said he would go to Cheltenham next week. Brain Power odds gone from 4/5 to 13/8.
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Clash of the year so far. Can'st wait for Brain Power to smash him.
 
Hope Finians Oscar gets beat so they send him the JLT where I have most of my money. Kills off a lot of my bets if he goes the Arkle route. That's the nature of AP betting I guess.
 
I genuinely can't remember a novice chance so promising, and that includes the festival.

I'm a huge fan of Finian's and Brain Power but I can see a North Hill Harvey doing an Ar Mad from a couple of years back and jumping them into the ground.

and at the price, is he the most likely winner? probably not but does he have a better than 20% chance of winning? absolutely IMHO
 
wilsonl said:
I genuinely can't remember a novice chance so promising, and that includes the festival.

I'm a huge fan of Finian's and Brain Power but I can see a North Hill Harvey doing an Ar Mad from a couple of years back and jumping them into the ground.

and at the price, is he the most likely winner? probably not but does he have a better than 20% chance of winning? absolutely IMHO
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Agree. At the prices NHH is the bet for me too.

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Harvey is 16s for Arkle, he hacks up tomorrow he'll be at least half of that. Praying to god FO doesn't win though. This is basically a Arkle trial run.

Other than Footpad these are all.top of the market.
 
Agreed DJ, 16/1 is one of the biggest ricks in the AP market. We know he's going there, we know he'll handle the track and he has little doubt surrounding his jumping.

The only thing that has kept him that price is the theory that he won't be as effective on better ground but the ground on the first day of Cheltenham is seldom quick and who's to say we won't have a soft ground year anyway.

My enthusiasm is slightly tempered by his run in the County last year but I strongly suspect Skelton knows he fcuked up by not running him after the Greatwood (trying to protect his handicap mark no doubt) and has learnt from that this year.

Edit: Although I suppose at the weights Sceau Royal has every right to turn the Cheltenham form around and is the rag tomorrow. Proper tough race to call.
 
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