Novice Chasers 2018/2019


Well beaten. Maybe 20 plus lengths. Was in trouble at the Railway fences.

Will Hardline go Arkle or JLT?


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‘Hardline seems to handle any ground and he showed last time that this sort of trip suits him well when he got up to beat Getabird in a Grade 1 Limerick. That run entitles him to go well here and the ground will be no problem for him at all. He is probably a better horse than he has gotten credit for and fences look to have brought out the best in him. On ratings he has got a live chance.’

That was Elliot on his Betfair blog before the Leopardstown run. Granted plans change but to my eye he was dropped towards the rear but not scrubbed along or rousted to get back into contention then ran on late. I’ve backed him to win but will bet place only on the day if it turns up in the JLT incase a similar scenario happens where it runs on late having not gone the usual festival pace.
 
Looking through his record Kalashnikov has been beaten on all four runs in a Group 1 or 2 however he has won all six runs in a Group 3 or lower.
 
nickf88 said:
That was Elliot on his Betfair blog before the Leopardstown run. Granted plans change but to my eye he was dropped towards the rear but not scrubbed along or rousted to get back into contention then ran on late. I’ve backed him to win but will bet place only on the day if it turns up in the JLT incase a similar scenario happens where it runs on late having not gone the usual festival pace.
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The pace was no bother imo, he was just held up. He made an error down the back straight which cost him a few lengths but the jockey didn't bother getting after him. It looked very much a prep run to my eyes.
 
Euronymous said:
The pace was no bother imo, he was just held up. He made an error down the back straight which cost him a few lengths but the jockey didn't bother getting after him. It looked very much a prep run to my eyes.
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Personally what I thought too. The distance he was dropped off at the rear of the field would have been comical if not for being held back for another day in my opinion, just given way too much to do otherwise.
 
It was very reminiscent of the ride given to Good Man Pat behind Mister Dino at Plumpton.

I'm utterly convinced this is a plot job for the Close Bros and now Glen Forsa is out of the way I expect Good Man Pat to go very close to picking up the bonus following his win back there yesterday. I reckon he'll go up to abotu 138/139 for that win and he needs another outing over fences so as long as King can manufacture a minimal rise from it (e.g. no more than 6 or 7lb) then it's game on and he's 16/1 NRNB (5 places) or 20/1 without the NRNB concession.

My only concern is they might head for the Ultima instead as he's proven PTP form over 3m but he takes a fair pull in his races and travels strongly so while the pace of the Ultima would suit him he looks more suited to continuing at the intermediate trip at this stage IMO.
 
Hardline's race was a Grade 1 event at the Dublin Racing Festival. Every horse good enough to win was trying.
 
wilsonl said:
I'm not so sure he couldn't go the pace. Was never put into the race until late on to my eye
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I've just watched it back, and agree with you now alright.

He was given a considerate ride. Wasn't flogged up the straight.

It'll be interesting to see where he pitches up (as Kauto Abu queries).

Wherever he pitches up, he'll be getting my money. Looks a lovely type.
I'd be thinking JLT at this stage.
 
Maybe Jack thought if he tried too hard to get back in touch the horse would be gassed for the finish. Either way if he doesn't lose touch in a jlt this run behind the mare gives him a similar chance to Lostintranslation really.
 
wilsonl said:
It was very reminiscent of the ride given to Good Man Pat behind Mister Dino at Plumpton.

I'm utterly convinced this is a plot job for the Close Bros and now Glen Forsa is out of the way I expect Good Man Pat to go very close to picking up the bonus following his win back there yesterday. I reckon he'll go up to abotu 138/139 for that win and he needs another outing over fences so as long as King can manufacture a minimal rise from it (e.g. no more than 6 or 7lb) then it's game on and he's 16/1 NRNB (5 places) or 20/1 without the NRNB concession.

My only concern is they might head for the Ultima instead as he's proven PTP form over 3m but he takes a fair pull in his races and travels strongly so while the pace of the Ultima would suit him he looks more suited to continuing at the intermediate trip at this stage IMO.
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He's also already entered in the JLT but would presume he's not good enough.
 
I did consider that DG. Mister Dino would most likely still be fav for the JLT if it weren't for the injury and I reckon Good Man Pat could have run him mighty close if Hutchinson had wanted to. The fact that they didn't and that they've the Plumpton bonus to go for makes me think they're more likely to take the easier option and go down the handicap route if they know they have a well handicapped horse on their hands.

I think he's capable of being a 150 horse so if they can managed to get him a mark of around 140 after his third start over fences then he's going to be well in for the novice handicap (IMO of course).

The majority of my bets are NRNB so if he goes JTL so be it. Personally I don't think he'd be quite good enough for that despite that tenderly ridden, encouraging run behin Mister Dino so I'm not interested in having a saver on the JLT.
 
Elliott said this about Hardline today...

‘He might come back in trip for the Arkle. He wasn't a bad two-miler over hurdles. The day he won his Grade 1 at Limerick he was going to put it up to Getabird regardless of the mistake that one made. If the ground turns up as good as it's been all season I think the Arkle favourite [Le Richebourg] will be hard to beat.’
 
Lalor to have a racecourse gallop after racing at Exeter on Friday

Edit.........gallop now on Saturday morning
 
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viking said:
Mullins now saying he won’t be travelling. They thought it was a muscle strain but it’s a ligament problem apparently


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Gutted but Hardline still available at 25-1 NRNB. Bearing in mind this is the stated target and looking at collateral form with Le Richebourg through Us And Them (also on same hurdles OR as LR) that will have to do as a quick 'off the bench' bet.
 
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Real steel the real deal? Did it very nicely today. Granted not beating much, but I've really liked his last 2 runs a lot. JLT market top 2 unconvincing for me. 10/1 NRNB well worth an EW bet imo.
 
Double Handful said:
Real steel the real deal? Did it very nicely today. Granted not beating much, but I've really liked his last 2 runs a lot. JLT market top 2 unconvincing for me. 10/1 NRNB well worth an EW bet imo.
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It's certainly the right race to back an outsider

He will be over bet though and you'll beat his off price by 2 or 3 points
 
granger said:
It's certainly the right race to back an outsider

He will be over bet though and you'll beat his off price by 2 or 3 points
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Straight after the race yesterday I had a decent EW bet on him for the JLT at 16/1 without NRNB protection. At the same time had a small win bet at 55/1 on the machine for the Arkle as a safety net.
 
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