Double Handful
At the Start
Similarly in 2018, only 2 horses went on from DRF to win at Cheltenham. Footpad & Samcro.
Novice Chasers 2019/20
- Thread starter granger
- Start date
Similarly in 2018, only 2 horses went on from DRF to win at Cheltenham. Footpad & Samcro.
I'm sure Willie would knew how **** his Arkle chasers would be Klassical Dream would be chasing.
It's not just about having a hard race. A large percentage of pre Cheltenham runs are treated as preps with trainers leaving something to work on but with a few exceptions, many of the Irish horses are (rightfully) trained to peak for the top prizes at the DRF. And it's hard to bring a horse to it's peak, let it down afterwards and then bring it back at the same level 5 1/2 weeks later.
That said, some horses seem to thrive on racing and Notebook does appear to be one of them so he's pretty solid IMO, for all I'm on Fakir at big prices so wouldn't mind seeing him turning the Christmas form around despite the loss of the WFA.
That said, some horses seem to thrive on racing and Notebook does appear to be one of them so he's pretty solid IMO, for all I'm on Fakir at big prices so wouldn't mind seeing him turning the Christmas form around despite the loss of the WFA.
granger
Senior Jockey
It is a very dogmatic approach to based a nto performance on solely winning as proof that a 6 week break dramatically effects a horses running. The Irish GC last year would be an exception to that as it was concrete
The best horse should win at Cheltenham and I wouldn't be letting an unknown and at the end of the day bias towards a race leaving a mark on a horse as a reason to back against it
I'd much prefer to back based on what you can see
If someone can find me a formline that doesn't show Notebook being the standout novice this year, i'll be surprised
Before the DRF was the DRF, all these horses were still running in Irish Hennessys,PJ Moriaritys and Irish Arkles
The best horse should win at Cheltenham and I wouldn't be letting an unknown and at the end of the day bias towards a race leaving a mark on a horse as a reason to back against it
I'd much prefer to back based on what you can see
If someone can find me a formline that doesn't show Notebook being the standout novice this year, i'll be surprised
Before the DRF was the DRF, all these horses were still running in Irish Hennessys,PJ Moriaritys and Irish Arkles
tiggers1972
Senior Jockey
I saw something where Ruby pointed out that Notebook got a bit lively going down to the start at the DRF and he said a bigger crowd etc in the Arkle could make him boil over.
Double Handful
At the Start
I feel like we’re involved in 2 slightly different debates on this thread at the moment.
1. Notebook's form and his chance in the Arkle
His form is top class. He has done everything right so far and he’s proved himself the best 2m novice in Ireland.
Yes, I think Notebook had a particularly hard race at DRF - but I'm absolutely not using that as my overall view on his form or his chances going forward. It's one of a few factors that I considered when weighing up if 3/1 Antepost is a Shrewd bet on him right now, and I don't believe it is.
2. The form carrying from DRF to Cheltenham.
Separate to the Notebook conversation, on closer reflection there are now a few years of evidence to look at. Only 2 out of 15 horses have gone on to win at Cheltenham for 2 years in a row now. Maybe it's purely coincidental, but worth looking into a bit further at least, imo.
1. Notebook's form and his chance in the Arkle
His form is top class. He has done everything right so far and he’s proved himself the best 2m novice in Ireland.
Yes, I think Notebook had a particularly hard race at DRF - but I'm absolutely not using that as my overall view on his form or his chances going forward. It's one of a few factors that I considered when weighing up if 3/1 Antepost is a Shrewd bet on him right now, and I don't believe it is.
2. The form carrying from DRF to Cheltenham.
Separate to the Notebook conversation, on closer reflection there are now a few years of evidence to look at. Only 2 out of 15 horses have gone on to win at Cheltenham for 2 years in a row now. Maybe it's purely coincidental, but worth looking into a bit further at least, imo.
Double Handful
At the Start
Yes, I was alluding to these antics earlier tiggers. It was on the Road to Cheltenham programme on RTV last Thursday.
Ruby highlighted how far he ran and how lit up he was before the race even started.
Some might say for Notebook to expend that much energy and still win, only means he's an even better Horse.
His only previous run at Cheltenham was really poor, so maybe the crowd and the occasion did get to him.
Great so we can agree you are wrong and move on...
We are into fantasy land reasons now to be against the horse.
Double Handful
At the Start
On whether 3/1 Antepost is a shrewd bet, I suppose we'll just have to agree to disagree.
Would you really advocate taking 3/1 today Antepost, as opposed to 11/4 NRNB ?
The Irish Arkle would have been 2 weeks earlier. And it is interesting that WPM said, when talking about Al Boum Photos win, that he had resigned himself to never winning the Gold Cup. He thought he had left Gold Cups behind him at the Hennessey. Even then, the Hennessey's would have been final prep's for Cheltenham. The DRF is not a trial day. What was clear from his interview after the DRF was that it was Faugheen's Gold Cup day.
If the DRF is the focus for Irish winter horses it will be interesting to see its effect on Cheltenham.
simmo
Senior Jockey
I'm not convinced that 2 from 15 winners at the festival is a bad record for any meeting.
Are we seriously arguing 3/1 v 11/4. Take either, who cares.
Double Handful
At the Start
I was more asking about the NRNB element, but I take your point.
What's your view on Battleoverdoyen - or more so what would your view have been prior to him getting beaten in the Flogas?
I have him for the RSA in some antepost multiples at 16/1 and prior to the Flogas he was a general 8/1 shot.
At that point I was quite happy with my position - but always had the fear in the back of my mind of how disappointing he was at last years festival.
Wondering how you weigh these elements up in general, relative to you taking a strong stance on a horse either way Antepost for Cheltenham?
granger
Senior Jockey
BOD is not as good as connections hoped
His price is fair right now at 14's. He jumps slow.
Am sure he'll win a race of some note barring injury in the next 12 months but not one that was as good as hoped
His price is fair right now at 14's. He jumps slow.
Am sure he'll win a race of some note barring injury in the next 12 months but not one that was as good as hoped
I've no strong positions this year in non-handicap races. Notebook just looks such a standout bet at 11/4+.
Battleoverdoyen just emptied the last day. Very hard to be be dogmatic about him doing anything. He was knackered when falling. Perhaps they have got him and Champagne Classic the wrong way around
archie
Senior Jockey
However, 7 Cheltenham winners in 2018 had actually run at the DRF. Your two plus Bleu Berry, Relegate, Delta Work, The Storyteller and Farclas.
All the stats screaming Cash Back.
However, 7 Cheltenham winners in 2018 had actually run at the DRF. Your two plus Bleu Berry, Relegate, Delta Work, The Storyteller and Farclas.
All the stats screaming Cash Back.
Is the correct answer
With Al Dancer placing at a big price
Al Dancer placing? He’ll still be heading to the start at off time. Absolute pig
archie
Senior Jockey
I'm not saying he'll reverse it. Notebook is the correct favourite but there was less than a length between them so 7/1 Cash Back looks a reasonable back-up bet.
I can see that but if he is taken on for the lead his blow out percentage becomes very high.
archie
Senior Jockey
Depends what you call blow out I suppose. He's only finished out of the top two once in Ireland.
He looks to be a better horse over fences and they've been happy enough to lay up close with Fakir rather than blast off so Cash Back may get an uncontested lead. Until we get final decs it's difficult to predict race tactics but there has to be a chance that Fakir might go for the Marsh anyway. As I say, if you could only back one it would probably be Notebook but if you wanted to back another as cover, Cash Back would be my choice at the prices.
I really don't understood them messing around with Fakir Doudairies' tactics. He is starting to look a busted flush to me.