Novice Chasers 2019/20

I think Melon 25/1 is the e/way bet in the Arkle but only if he is declared? He was the highest rated in the field over hurdles. Finished 2nd in the Supreme & twice 2nd in the Champion Hurdle in the last 3 years. I'm prepared to ignore his run l/t/o behind Notebook, as he hasn't performed at Leopardstown's Feb meeting. Well beaten there in Feb 2018 behind Faugheen & Micks Jazz he had both comfortably behind him in the Champion Hurdle when btn a nk by Buveur D'Air. Then in 2019 Feb at Leopardstown he was well beaten again behind Apple's Jade but finished well in front of her when 2nd again in the Champion Hurdle.
This season he has finished 2nd 3L behind Fakir D'oudiries giving that horse 8lbs (they go off level weights in the Arkle) He then beat Gallant John Joe 2 1/4L giving that horse 5lb. Gallant John Joe was 7L behind Notebook l/t/o off level weights. Ignore Melon's last run and with his course form he looks a value e/way bet if declared?
 
swedish chef said:
I think Melon 25/1 is the e/way bet in the Arkle but only if he is declared? He was the highest rated in the field over hurdles. Finished 2nd in the Supreme & twice 2nd in the Champion Hurdle in the last 3 years. I'm prepared to ignore his run l/t/o behind Notebook, as he hasn't performed at Leopardstown's Feb meeting. Well beaten there in Feb 2018 behind Faugheen & Micks Jazz he had both comfortably behind him in the Champion Hurdle when btn a nk by Buveur D'Air. Then in 2019 Feb at Leopardstown he was well beaten again behind Apple's Jade but finished well in front of her when 2nd again in the Champion Hurdle.
This season he has finished 2nd 3L behind Fakir D'oudiries giving that horse 8lbs (they go off level weights in the Arkle) He then beat Gallant John Joe 2 1/4L giving that horse 5lb. Gallant John Joe was 7L behind Notebook l/t/o off level weights. Ignore Melon's last run and with his course form he looks a value e/way bet if declared?
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I wouldn’t be totally against him, more likely to see in the Marsh if he goes anywhere though. Ruby himself very vocal on him getting stepped up in trip.

Wouldn’t surprise me if he was also supplemented for the Champion Hurdle.
 
Slim said:
Really don't understand why he wouldn't go for the Arkle.
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Everyone seems to be mentioning it. JP has only had a hand full of runners in the Arkle, don’t know the figures exactly, people have quoted it. But they all tend to end up in the JLT or RSA.

That said, he was quite happy to send Le Richebourg that route last year before injury.
 
Don't Push It was fancied My Way De Solzen's year. Came down at the second last with Twist Magic. Very ugly fall(s) - might have put him off.
 
Slim said:
Thing is what Arkle horse has JP ever had?
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No idea.

What I do know is, he’s had 6 runners since the year 2000 in the Arkle.
And the last one he had placed was in 2013.

Considering how many horses he owns, 6 is an incredibly low number.
 
JP specialises in handicap hurdlers and boaty chasers. The Golden Miller (jlt/marsh) from 2011-2018 - 8 renewals, 2 JP contenders. It ain't just the Arkle.
 
Euronymous said:
JP specialises in handicap hurdlers and boaty chasers. The Golden Miller (jlt/marsh) from 2011-2018 - 8 renewals, 2 JP contenders. It ain't just the Arkle.
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Didn’t know that. Guess you can use stats in any favour to suit your argument. I’m on 10s Fakir for the the Arkle, was beginning to get worried. He’s my back up to Notebook!
 
A market move for my Arkle fancy Esprit Du Large today. Into 14's and 16's from 20's with most firms.

He is one of three or four horses I am very strong for the Festival.

I just loved the way he won the last day. Battling back right to the line.
 
A market move for my Arkle fancy Esprit Du Large today. Into 14's and 16's from 20's with most firms.

He is one of three or four horses I am very strong for the Festival.

I just loved the way he won the last day. Battling right back to the line.

I feel there is a lot more to come.
 
Marb said:
A market move for my Arkle fancy Esprit Du Large today. Into 14's and 16's from 20's with most firms.

He is one of three or four horses I am very strong for the Festival.

I just loved the way he won the last day. Battling back right to the line.
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Not sure that's as much a move as it is NRNB kicking in with a few firms and others who are not NRNB, but still can't contract their price too.

Still 20's available with some books and on the machine.

Was keen on Esprit myself last week, but disappointed Nube Negre didn't Frank the form on Saturday.

There's nothing new that has happened in past few days to justify him shortening. We've known for a long time he goes straight to Cheltenham after sandown LTO. If anything his chances are not as strong after the weekend. Rouge vif ahead him now on form lines really.
 
Euronymous said:
Couldn't have him then.
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Why not? Because he goes best Fresh?
Surely if that's the way to get the best performance out of a horse then that's what you do, no?

Esprit du Large has had his 3 runs over fences. An acceptable amount for a novice going to Cheltenham.

Whether he's good enough or not is an entirely different question. Abacadabras and Envoi Allen will both go to Cheltenham will a similar length of break in between races.
 
Exactly. I'd rather the horse was being readied at home than showing all his worth in another race before the Festival where if he won you'd get the half the price that he is now.

He has nothing more to prove before the Arkle, imho.
 
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If I'm contemplating a novice chaser for a grade 1 at the Festival sans a run in the new year I want his trainer to have a track record with those types. I call it my Grands Crus rule.
 
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