Novice Chasers 2020 / 2021

Maruco said:
The first thing I’d point you towards his record in Oct/Nov 1111126. The 2nd was to Lostintranslation who was 3rd beaten a couple of lengths in the Gold Cup, and the 6th was in last years Paddy Power Gold Cup on unsuitable soft ground. He’s best fresh on ground no worse than good to soft. He’s won on soft but on my ratings, he’s a stone worse on it. I hold two previous ratings of my own, one 150+ At Carlisle and the second 149p at Cheltenham, and there is feasible retrospective back and cross-form that makes both stand up with hind site. Kildisart (155), who Count Maribel has beaten under his favoured conditions over both fences and hurdles. Even using the current ratings of those horses that finished ahead and behind him in the RSA suggest the ratings I have make sense.
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A lot of what you are saying makes sense, but Lostintranslation could have gone round again. He schooled round hardly off the bridal, he was cantering when the four rivals got at it in earnest four out, could have won by 30+lengths had he got racing.

Saint Sonnet and Mr Fisher, on the other hand, ran in a championship race, run at a proper pace. Saint Sonnet was in a good position just before the race started in earnest and he made a bad mistake, got shuffled to the back and had to be ridden early to get a position, Mr Fisher always in a good position. SS did really well to close up at the last but the extra exertions took their toll. I'd give the 5-year-old scope to improve a few pounds over the month's past, his jumping to improve for Nicholl's, and a 7Lb pull with MF, all to count towards being classed as well handicapped, especially if you the protract that against the standard times of Samcro (5 secs faster) and Simply The Betts carrying the same weights, same day.
 
All three second season chasers at the top of the betting have scope for improvement. And of course as always it’s a case of which ones have the scope to improve the most. I can see Simply The Betts becoming a late 160’s horse and good enough to line up in a Ryanair, but I’m not sure I feel the same about Mister Fisher, and if I don’t it leaves me with doubts about Saint Sonnet.

The argument you make for him is fair enough though. He’s entitled to be a better horse after 2 runs and more time with Nichols. Indeed I marked him up as long range horse for this race. Having re-watched his two races last year though it put me off rather than turned me on though. It left me feeling as though he wants a step up in trip. I can’t argue that he is potentially well handicapped off 147 though, and if I’m wrong about that he likely wins. At 5/1 though I can easily leave him alone.

Hands up and I might well say the same about Simply The Betts price, but I was on him when the market went up so it’s probably why I have a different view.
 
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I think STB performance can be upgraded. I didn't think he jumped that well, yet still kept pulling out more!
 
Wincanton 3.35
Was hoping Cobra de Mai would drift to 20/1 and qualify for the longshot thread but not sure he will now and I’ve taken 16/1 to 5 places with SkyBet. Firmly put in his place last time by Frodon’s accurate jumping but eased 2lb for that and is now 4lb lower than when winning a decent handicap at Cheltenham in April 2019. Could be perked up by first time blinkers
 
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Looking forward to Sporting John this afternoon

Something was a clearly amiss (possibly with a few of Hobbs's) at the festival and am hoping he's near the top of the UK novice chasers. It won’t be easy today though with Fiddlerontheroof who was a good novice hurdler, who’s had a run, plus Silver Hallmark who could excel over fence. Nice little race for a dreary Wednesday afternoon…
 
Perpetual said:
Looking forward to Sporting John this afternoon

Something was a clearly amiss (possibly with a few of Hobbs's) at the festival and am hoping he's near the top of the UK novice chasers. It won’t be easy today though with Fiddlerontheroof who was a good novice hurdler, who’s had a run, plus Silver Hallmark who could excel over fence. Nice little race for a dreary Wednesday afternoon…
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I think he might need the run, but I’d be delighted to be proved wrong.
 
Sporting John was not very good to say the least.

First viewing it looks a JP special, could well just be an out of sorts yard and first run of the season. Will
Wait and see.
 
Double J said:
Sporting John was not very good to say the least.

First viewing it looks a JP special, could well just be an out of sorts yard and first run of the season. Will
Wait and see.
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I remember Defi Du Seuil's chase debut, it was horrendous, all for the same connections.
 
Perpetual said:
Yep, that would not be a surprise and he's no bet at evens with the questions, the main one being he could hate fences!
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Well, he got over them ok, but I’m not sure it was a love-in :). Hobbs’ powder is damp at the moment so I suppose it's better not rely on this result too much.
 
Hobbs one of the nicest people you could meet as is his assistant Johnson (An Capall Will back me up on this!) and also one of the happiest yards to work for.
Its just out of form at the moment for whatever reason. It happens. But he’s a very good trainer IMO.
 
Difference between him and Defi is Defi was a Triumph winner whereas Sporting John was incredibly disappointing when stepped up to the top grade and the form of his Ascot novice hasn’t been franked at all.
 
Good enough win for Fiddlerontheroof, always thought the minimum trip was too sharp for him over hurdles, so certainly think the extra distance over fences will play to his strengths.

Sporting John was out like a light.
 
Ground will be plenty quick enough for Defi over 2m. I’ve rowed in with the Rouge, in the hope that apparent improvement in the handicap is legit (though genuinely fear the mare).

Race will very likely be run to suit Sceau Royal, but you’d have to think he’ll sh*it himself inside out, if it comes to a scrap.
 
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I will have a decent wedge on Put the Kettle On. Keeps getting under estimated and expect her to make it 3-0 over Rouge Vif at the course and distance
 
I thought Sporting John jumped and travelled well, then stopped to nothing. Don’t know if it was stable form, needed the run or just not good enough, but haven’t given up on him just yet
 
He was certainly a disappointment today. I thought Robbie Power was very good on the winner by the way. He was alert to the danger from Silver Hallmark before it happened, which meant he had enough time (just) to get his mount to rally and regain the lead on the line. His first few weeks being based in England have been sticky enough, with more falls than winners, but he'll be feeling better after a double today.
 
Was about to post the same thing, really impressed with that performance. Can go 3 mile but ruled it out for this season, won’t be seen now till next year.
 
Jumps quite left at many of the fences.

Weird race, Felix hit 40s plus in running, but Kennedy never really got animated and won fairly easily I thought.
 
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