Novice Hurdlers 2011-2012

He's a mover with Powers. They've taken the 13/8 and 11/8 and he's now 11/10. i think the Meade horse is a serious lay at anything 3/1 and under. He just looks exposed to me. Soux Les Cieux is seriously well regarded and completely unexposed.
 
Galileo's Choice looked a horse going places when he won his Group 3 on the flat and he went down as one to follow for me. Weld is operating at a 50% strike rate from a small number of runners over jumps so far this year so I personally think the 7/1 e/w is more than fair.
 
The Monksfield Hurdle at Navan on Sunday looked a really good race beforehand, and while some horses disappointed, I don't think there can be any doubt that the winner, Mount Benbulben is a very good horse. But is he the only horse to take out of the race with Cheltenham in mind?

On paper the best performance was by Rebel Fitz, who gave the winner 3 lbs and was beaten less than two lengths. Not only that, Mount Benbulben was all out to peg him back, and for a moment it looked like he might not get to him.

Mount Benbulben looks an obvious contender for the Albert Bartlett, but Rebel Fitz is a very good horse too and should do better on faster ground. I think he should be kept in mind for the Neptune.
 
Rebel Fitz did have the run of the race though. And the winner promises to be even better when chugging up the Cheltenham hill in the Albert.
 
SlimChance said:
5/2 Il Fenomeno,
7/1 Galileo’s Choice,

Both Group winners on the flat but Il Fenomeno looks far more exposed. The difference in price makes no sense. I'd imagine the 11/10 Soux Les Cieux will be odds on by the race off.
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The more I look at the form of the Meade horse the more I want to lay it. Beating Priors Gold under 9 lengths is as far from Grade 1 form as you can get. I just can't justify having him less than 4/1 or 9/2.
 
Bar the Bull said:
Is Simonsig soft, or is Fingal Bay just really, really good?

I think the latter might be a real star. Annoyed I only have competition money on him.
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I thought Simonsig soft. Not impressed with geraghty sitting motionless when he could have tried to kick ahead, but wouldn't have won anyway.
 
Can't have that, Martin.

Simonsig has won two Points over 3m, and would have hacked-up in the other over that trip if he hadn't fallen. He's just been beaten by a very smart animal today.
 
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Think he'll be better over shorter though Grasshopper - he was ridiculously impressive in all his point starts (even travelling best when coming down in his sole defeat). Would add few horses can get a "quickened" comment in a Point and those that do are likely to be more effective over shorter trips under rules - Simonsig bolted up on his first two starts but was found out at the business end today, think if they drop him back to 2m he'll prove to be a real star.
 
Irish Stamp said:
Think he'll be better over shorter though Grasshopper - he was ridiculously impressive in all his point starts (even travelling best when coming down in his sole defeat). Would add few horses can get a "quickened" comment in a Point and those that do are likely to be more effective over shorter trips under rules - Simonsig bolted up on his first two starts but was found out at the business end today, think if they drop him back to 2m he'll prove to be a real star.
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In fairness to Martin he has said to me since the summer that 2m was his trip this season. The race today backs that up completely. He travels too well for the slow boat races. Can people stop using the "He won a PTP" as a reason for a horse needing a trip. Simonsig would probably have beaten any PTP opposition over any distance.

I'm very happy with a free €1,000 green for the Supreme Novice.
 
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