Novice hurdlers are not my thing betting wise and as such and being pressed for time I haven't read through this thread. I have however this morning started to look through the races and have attempted to form some sort of opinion on the festival races and started to write them up for my place. I thought I'd share it over here although the opinions probably aren't worth the cyber paper they are written on you can take it as you like.
For now I think its best to keep these on one thread as who knows where what is running. This includes
Tuesday - Supreme Novices 2m
Wednesday - Ballymore 2m5f
Friday - Albert Bartlett/ Spa Hurdle or as I like to call it the potato race 3m
I don't mind admitting that for me its a bit of a guessing game with these novices. Its an area I have to try and improve on a bit if not from a punting point of view as I don't have to bet in a novices hurdle for the rest of my life if I choose not to do so. Certainly though from a knowledge point of view and lets face it most novice hurdlers will end up handicapping which is more my area so if I can learn to get some sort of handle on how good they are it might prove valuable for the following season.
That said whilst you don't have to bet in every race at the festival by any means lets face it the majority of us will like a bit of interest at least in most of the races so I'm going to at least try and have something in them that rather than a last minute guess or backing somebody elses opinion that I've read I'll try and put some thought into it and try to find something at a price early on which I may have already done.
Why is it such a guessing game for me ? Well I feel there is never much in the way of form to go on. Most of the form that we can use will basically be run at a slow pace on bad ground and by the time we get to the festival the likely hood is that most of these horses will face a proper gallop for the first time and it will usually be on a better surface rendering most of the seasons form irrelevant. That said I'm going to try and have a look at things from a pace angle using Topspeed as a guide and I'll start off with the Supreme to put some figures in context for the later races.
Supreme best Topspeeds thus far.
Get a bird 131
Sommerville Boy 127
Mengli Kahn 126
Kalasnikov 122
Apples Shakira 121
Slate House 121
Claimantakinforgan 117
So a little admission as I'm unfortunately not managing to post every ante-post bet I have or rather I haven't had time to do so and write up reasoning but I had a spare 20 in my Ladbrokes account and looking for something to double up last week with Call me a lord 16/1 for the Betfair I tried to sneakily get an interest in this and doubled him with Mengli Kahn at 10's. As he was running in the Moscow Flyer novices at Punchestown at the weekend I thought if he won that with a penalty then he'd be a very short price for this which was sound enough reasoning but he's been completely dismantled by Getabird and as such is freely available at 20's now so that's one I've cocked up already but that said I think a 9L second giving 6lb away might not be far away from being second best for the supreme anyway.
Last 5 Supreme winners figures leading into Cheltenham and Supreme figure in brackets.
Labaik 93, 109 (refused to race 3 times) (144)
Altior 102,108,99,138 (152)
Douvan 101,106 (148)
Vautour 121,103 (150)
Champange Fever 75,131 (154) Probably form wise one of the strongest Supremes of my lifetime.
Now looking at Getabirds 131 on only his second start over hurdles it looks good. It looks even better when you watch the race and the manner he achieved it. He's been cut to 3/1 generally which I think looks more than fair. Looking at the way he ran I can't see he has any other option than to run in this and I think its quite possible he'll be a very short favourite on the day. That said I'm not one for punting 3/1 pokes ante post especially as there is plenty of time for something else to emerge but I'm certainly in no rush to be taking him on.
So we move on to the Ballymore and this is where I've found something of interest.
When putting the figures in order for this I got a similar list to what we'd seen in the supreme as most are entered for everything at this point. So Get a bird tops the charts again and S.boy is there too along with Slate house. Sandwiched in the middle are two horses, Poetic Rhythm (who I'm sure I've heard fergal say is likely to go for the potato race) and Count Meribel. Both might be horses to keep an eye on for the future but right at this moment I'm not interested in either. Samcro is a warm order for this and falls into the bracket of could be anything, unbeaten and doing what he wants in regards destroying anything he comes up against but he's languishing a fair way down on figures with his 2 races over timber scoring 108 and 106 on topspeed. That I'm sure is not a any reflection on his overall ability but it also says if I'm going to take one on I don't mind finding something to give him a run for his money at a price.
Black op What a wonderful name for a start off with a project like this . On TS figures he scores 116 for his last effort with in context of what we are seeing novices produce this early that's not bad. If we look into him a bit deeper though I think he becomes more of an interest. That figure was recorded at Doncaster on his latest effort only his second start over hurdles and his first at the trip of 2m5f he was 1/3 shot and expected to score in the fashion that he did so I suppose that's why there has been little response in the Ante-post markets. He was well beaten on seasonal debut but that was over 2 miles so is excusable first time up. At Doncaster over a more reasonable trip he cut out his own running and was fairly messy at a few of his hurdles but looked to be getting better the further he went. At one point turning for home he didn't look as if he'd win all that far but again the further he went the better he got and really asserted after the last and was eased down winning by 17L with an officially rated 119 horse beaten 21 lengths in third. All things considered there was plenty of room for improvement in all area's but I feel that figure of 116 which isn't bad looks like a decent standard from which to improve upon.
Its one thing doing it on the soft but how does he cope with better ground ? Well he ran in 2 bumpers on good ground last term. He won one beating one of the leading Supreme hopes Claimfukting ( whatever) and he ran respectably in another where admittedly that one reversed form of sort behind a host of others who are fairly useful. I'm not too concerned about bumper form as quite obviously Black op to my eye is going to be a stayer in time but winning a bumper on good ground against horses who are no mugs over a trip that would be too short for him would say to me that he handles a better surface at the very least.
How to bet him then ? Well I have to admit I've reigned myself in a bit as sometimes I can get carried away with what is and experimental idea. I've looked at the betting options and the firms aren't giving too much away. He's about 20/1 25/1 with NRNB firms for the Ballymore and the Albert Bartlett and perhaps 66/1 with SJ for the one and 50/1 with somebody else for the AB with proper Ante-post terms. If I were certain he'd be aimed at the Ballymore then 66/1 e/w would be a steal. However he's won a ptp over 3 mile and although I'm not the best judge of a horses make up when watching him at Doncaster It wouldn't surprise me to hear Tom George utter those words he'll make a better chaser. With that and given the way he stayed on at Donny I can't rule him out for the potato race.
In the end I've decided to take a look on the machine which really told me nothing about his intended target as he was over a 100's on both markets. So for £20 a tenner on each race I can return over a grand even after commission which is basically just over 50/1 for him to win either race. So that's what I've done just a small layout and I'll just be keeping an eye out for a) his progress over the coming weeks. b) any opportunity to back him NRNB or in his prep races at a price.
Worth keeping an eye on though lads IMO.
Last edited by broadsword; Today at 11:21 AM.
