I did a bit of unrefined sectional analysis of the recent Leopardstown meeting and was pleased that my findings were quite close to Simon Rowlands's. On the basis of those findings I started backing Rhinestone for the bumper and I'm planning on starting to chip away at Mr Adjudicator for the Triumph.
I've just done a similar exercise with the Christmas meeting at the same track but only two races really lend themselves to comparison, which is a wee bit unsatisfactory.
However, this is what I've noted so far:
I’ve had a wee look at the Leopardstown race at Christmas in which Sharjah and Real Steel fell at the last when five lengths clear of the eventual winner Whisky Sour.
In the same race Elliott’s Mengli Khan was disputing the lead when running through the wing two out. Mullins said later he thought MK was going to win but I suspect that’s a misdirection. Nothing was going better than Sharjah at the time.
There’s more than that to the race, though. I’ve done another bit of neanderthal sectional timing and it tells quite a story.
The next race was a decent 2m handicap hurdle so I did some split times to see how the runnings compared, timing them from the first flight. There were only two seconds (10-11 lengths) in favour of the novices’ race at the line but the winner Whisky Sour carried 15lbs more, plus the handicap winner Trainwreck’s 5lbs claimer’s allowance. Sharjah and Real Steel, though, were both five lengths clear of WS when they both fell at the last. Real Steel was flat out at the time while Sharjah was travelling very easily.
But, as Jimmy Cricket would say, there’s more.
Ignoring the fact that the novices got to the first flight fully two seconds (10/11 lengths) faster, which could be accounted for by mis-timing on the TV clock, they opened up another second by the second flight. That’s another five lengths. Already Whisky Sour was detached at the back. They were the same margin clear at the third hurdle but then they seemed to take off and by the time they got to the fourth the gap had opened to fully nine seconds, probably at least 50 lengths. By now Real Steel was being hard driven to stay in touch with the pack, a few lengths off them as the more conservatively ridden Whisky Sour started closing him down.
The gap remained at nine seconds until three out with Sharjah going arguably easier than those around him. Two out the gap was down to 7 seconds and at the last it was 5 seconds for Sharjah and Real Steel or four for Whisky Sour. It was two seconds at the line but Sharjah would probably have stayed at least another second – five lengths – in front as he had not been asked a question whereas as Real Steel was keeping on for hard driving.
It’s hard to know how true-run the handicap was. I don’t know how to do closing sectional percentages but that 50-length gap at halfway is ridiculous. It is no wonder the handicappers were narrowing the gap from three out. Sharjah and Real Steel are clearly very smart and, as I said before, may have been eased off in training in the light of this race thereby explaining their seemingly disappointing performances last weekend. Mengli Khan was still there two out but I would take a lot of convincing that he would have beaten Sharjah. However, he is clearly very smart too. This race could be the key to more than just the Supreme.
Real Steel might be more of a Ballymore (Neptune) type given that he struggled with the pace, as might Whisky Sour who wasn’t even asked to go with it. The others who raced with the pace finished 19 lengths away. In the handicap, after they straightened for home only two or three lengths covered the first ten. By the last it was at least ten lengths and at the line the first two were six lengths clear of the third and fourth who in turn were another six clear of the fifth. A lot of those would have been slowing down.
