Novice Hurdlers 2017/2018

TheBear said:
That’s a shame. Have they said why?


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If The Cap Fits will not run at the Cheltenham Festival due to a gluteal muscle tear.

We had been targeting him at the Supreme Novices Hurdle, the opening race of the four day meeting.

As disappointing as it is to be missing the Festival, we have to do what is correct by the horse & give him time to fully recover.

We will now focus on getting him back to full fitness in order to defend his unbeaten record over hurdles at Aintree's Grand National meeting.
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That looked a serious performance from Global Citizen.

Scarlet Dragon could have got closer with a less rearward ride and showed promise.

I'll crunch some numbers during the week.
 
Desert Orchid said:
That looked a serious performance from Global Citizen.

Scarlet Dragon could have got closer with a less rearward ride and showed promise.

I'll crunch some numbers during the week.
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I'll be very interested to see what you come up with in terms of numbers for that performance, DO.

I've backed Summerville Boy for the Supreme on the back of his performance in the Tolworth, where he beat the Nicholls fav that ran the Global Citizen race. I still think he's a fair price, but the way Mont Des Avaloirs was brushed aside by Global Citizen makes me think the Pauling horse might be pretty smart (albeit I do have a suspicion MDA will prove better on slower ground).

Does anyone have a strong view on Kalashnikov by the way? Amy Murphy seems fairly adamant he will be better on a sounder surface, but the way he has failed to travel through the Tolworth and Betfair makes me think he will be taken off his feet in a Supreme on likely better ground. Clearly has a huge engine though...
 
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RP reports Global Citizen unlikely to take up engagements at Cheltenham


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trackside528 said:
I'll be very interested to see what you come up with in terms of numbers for that performance, DO.

I've backed Summerville Boy for the Supreme on the back of his performance in the Tolworth, where he beat the Nicholls fav that ran the Global Citizen race. I still think he's a fair price, but the way Mont Des Avaloirs was brushed aside by Global Citizen makes me think the Pauling horse might be pretty smart (albeit I do have a suspicion MDA will prove better on slower ground).

Does anyone have a strong view on Kalashnikov by the way? Amy Murphy seems fairly adamant he will be better on a sounder surface, but the way he has failed to travel through the Tolworth and Betfair makes me think he will be taken off his feet in a Supreme on likely better ground. Clearly has a huge engine though...
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Kalashnikov lost a shoe and suffered an overreach in the Tolworth. That wasn’t his running.
 
I haven't been following this thread all the way through.

Do any other clockwatchers have a fast time for Vinndication for his Huntingdon win from Western Ryder?

It's probably just a case of this being the only true-run race of the day but any other interpretation makes the winner look very fast indeed.
 
With the ground now possibly and likely on the softer side on day 1, does anyone else think it could bring First Flow into the reckoning for the Supreme? He's a Big price for a horse 3/3 over hurdles in his novice season with a grade 2 victory lto.
 
I backed FF Win (181) and Place (25) on 24th January, and wrote it off 48hrs later.

I’d be delighted to get a run, but they seemed pretty sure they were going to swerve the Festival.
 
Grasshopper said:
Backed FF Win and Place (181/25) and have written it off. Would obviously be delighted if they ran him.
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Wasn't aware he was a likely non runner, Nick. Has this been common knowledge or readily communicated by connections? And if so, why? Likely quicker ground expected?

Edit: see your edited post above. Cheers
 
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Double Handful said:
With the ground now possibly and likely on the softer side on day 1, does anyone else think it could bring First Flow into the reckoning for the Supreme? He's a Big price for a horse 3/3 over hurdles in his novice season with a grade 2 victory lto.
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Wrote this yesterday DH but had put it on the Cheltenham thread following a discussion about Samcro NRNB based on chances of soft ground.

Just had another little "what if" brainwave. I can't say as I've been much more impressed with a novice this term than First Flow. Now I commended Kim Baileys attitude after FF' s latest victory of basically " fcuk Cheltenham! ". He was basically pointing to this being a very good horse for the future and one he wanted to look after. However I'm wondering if sometimes these things said in the heat of the moment are more based around the presumption of it being quick ground at the festival ? The horse obviously revels in soft ground. If Kim hasn't put him away for the season and has been keeping him just in case an opportunity arises then it would be pretty tempting to have a go should it come up soft. It begs the question if he was so certain that the horse wouldn't run at Cheltenham regardless of what he did then why enter him in the first place?

Generally a 25/1 shot NRNB but I've used one of these price boosts with laddies to get 30/1. Again a very long shot to actually line up but if he did I don't think there would be many with stronger claims and I'd include Get a bird in that. So another decent chunk laid out. Tbh if I find many more of these type of bets I'm going to need to sell a kidney to cover them or at least lease it out until I pick up a few refunds.

As you like gents.
Last edited by Danny; Yesterday at 6:23 AM.
 
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So you did Danny. It will be very interesting to keep an eye on the weather and going updates over the coming days.
You'd have to think/hope they'll consider taking their chance if it comes up soft in the Supreme. Cheers
 
This was Kim Bailey after his last win. Seems less about the ground, and more about saving the horse for the future.......which probably works in favour of him running, because I reckon KB can't affords to fu*ck about when a good one lands in his lap.

"He'll be entered for Cheltenham but I think it's very unlikely he'll go. We won't do very much with him for a couple of weeks.
"I don't think the hustle and bustle of Cheltenham is what he wants. If he doesn't run again this season, he doesn't have to.
"I said to the owners all along if we can win three novice hurdles, we might just leave him alone.
 
Grasshopper said:
This was Kim Bailey after his last win. Seems less about the ground, and more about saving the horse for the future.......which probably works in favour of him running, because I reckon KB can't affords to fu*ck about when a good one lands in his lap.

"He'll be entered for Cheltenham but I think it's very unlikely he'll go. We won't do very much with him for a couple of weeks.
"I don't think the hustle and bustle of Cheltenham is what he wants. If he doesn't run again this season, he doesn't have to.
"I said to the owners all along if we can win three novice hurdles, we might just leave him alone.
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Cheers Grassy. If they stick to their guns then a run in the supreme seems highly unlikely, regardless of the ground.
In terms of the angle to take now (Aware you already have massive Ante post Exchange prices) I'm wondering if backing E/W with Ladbrokes NRNB boosted to 30/1 as highlighted by Danny is a the shrewd move. Alternatively, wait a week, hope he is declared and use one of the concessions (Sky & Coral already offering) of Money back as free bet if he loses and just back him win only as a bet to nothing - Hopefully still getting 25/1
 
Double Handful said:
Cheers Grassy. If they stick to their guns then a run in the supreme seems highly unlikely, regardless of the ground.
In terms of the angle to take now (Aware you already have massive Ante post Exchange prices) I'm wondering if backing E/W with Ladbrokes NRNB boosted to 30/1 as highlighted by Danny is a the shrewd move. Alternatively, wait a week, hope he is declared and use one of the concessions (Sky & Coral already offering) of Money back as free bet if he loses and just back him win only as a bet to nothing - Hopefully still getting 25/1
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The concessions from Skybet and Corals apply now (first bet on the race from 23/02 and 28/02 respectively). Free bets expire after 24 hours although that shouldn’t be a problem


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Literally not a chance of still getting 25/1 DH on the day given soft ground and him running he goes off single figures.

Tbh I'd imagine if he's declared he'll half in price within 24 hours.
 
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Yes already taken the plunge with the boosted 30/1 NRMB with Ladbrokes after Grassy alerted me to movement on the exchange Price (Cheers Nick [emoji6]).

Figured there was no point waiting as I agree he could go off 12/1 if soft and if declared. There was also no point in taking the coral/Skybet concession now as that onyl counts for your first bet placed on the race. So with FF potentially still a NR the concessions would have been wasted.
 
Double Handful said:
Yes already taken the plunge with the boosted 30/1 NRMB with Ladbrokes after Grassy alerted me to movement on the exchange Price (Cheers Nick [emoji6]).

Figured there was no point waiting as I agree he could go off 12/1 if soft and if declared. There was also no point in taking the coral/Skybet concession now as that onyl counts for your first bet placed on the race. So with FF potentially still a NR the concessions would have been wasted.
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Think more positive DH a bit more of the Grassy type conviction with your bets.

If First Flow runs, he wins ! If he doesn't turn up we just find the winner and they can stick their concessions where the sun doesn't shine.
 
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Double Handful said:
Yes already taken the plunge with the boosted 30/1 NRMB with Ladbrokes after Grassy alerted me to movement on the exchange Price (Cheers Nick [emoji6]).

Figured there was no point waiting as I agree he could go off 12/1 if soft and if declared. There was also no point in taking the coral/Skybet concession now as that onyl counts for your first bet placed on the race. So with FF potentially still a NR the concessions would have been wasted.
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Concession is for first bet placed on a horse that runs
 
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