Novice Hurdlers 2017/2018

100% certainly is with Skybet anyhow, thought I read the same with Coral’s offer but can’t find that bit now so would be worth checking with them but I’d be surprised if it was any different
 
Been a more serious move for Samcro this morning in the Supreme gone into around 11/2 after he's been hovering between 10' and 18's for the last few days and it appears Bet365 have awoken to their rick as they've cut him to 5/2 from 14/1. Looks like this may actually be possible, I'd be very surprised even though I've backed it myself if he does line up but I'd certainly be pleased as it would be a double result for me. Having a good price on him to run in it but also having quite a large interest in Black Op for the Ballymore I'd be glad to have him out of the way in that contest. Things don't usually work out that well though so I won't hold my breath.

First flow also to a lesser extent looking a bit more solid on Betfair also for this. Can't help but wonder though if it just a few quid from the talking horses faithful who've knocked both these in as it wouldn't take much in terms of money to shift them.

Still, we live in hope.
 
It won't happen and it's a marketing come-on rather than a rick. Paddy (Ruby) and Betfair SB (Gordon) have Getabird shortest in the NRNB and open markets respectively. Go figure.
 
If thats the case Archie how come you could cash out at over 3 times your stake up to 9am this morning. Weird marketing!

That said its now back to just full stake

IMO it started off as a clever bit of marketing to get punters to fund their account and at the time Samcro was never going to the Supreme but over the last week or so things have changed . Yes theres only a very small chance he will switch but Bet365 must be shitting themselves with their liability
 
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If they get all the rain forecast there’s a big chance he goes. The Supreme looks a lot easier than the Ballymore & Mengli Kahn looks held by Getabird. Betfair have also cut him drastically from this time last week.


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I agree Archie with the fact it probably won't happen I wouldn't have invested a nicker at any price without NRNB.

But I'm with Front runner as laying 14/1 NRNB has no upside. Most of the people who operate ante-post aren't complete and utter mugs or addicts ( erm maybe myself excluded ) so getting people to deposit funds into their account a week prior to Cheltenham makes no sense. Most addicts or desperado's don't punt Ante-post as waiting for returns isn't an option they'd rather have their next bet now.

O.k even if its 99/100 they just refund your money and make nothing 1/100 they are getting their pants well and truly pulled down.

Actually begs the question if that is their tactic Archie why cut him to 5/2 now rather than just letting people keep filling up their accounts at 14's ?
 
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amazing they let the 14s last so long. was a horrendous error to begin with.

5/2 still too big btw
 
JamesRB said:
amazing they let the 14s last so long. was a horrendous error to begin with.

5/2 still too big btw
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Correct. He’s an even money shot NRNB. I wonder does Tony Calvin post here. He put it up in RUK betting Lab last Friday, a long time after I flagged it up here. By his twitter ac there’s some amount of people invested in it. B365 are sitting on a huge liability.

Say samcro did go Supreme. They’d have Dortmond Park still for Ballymore & Blow By Blow for the spud race. They’re gonna have to double up Samcro somewhere.


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i wonder if calvin's constant reporting of it all weekend meant 365 finally bit the bullet. more exposure = more and more bets

they must be sitting on some enormous liabilities.
 
The price was wrong but he’ll be in the Ballymore. Elliott has said he wants to avoid Getabird.


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There will be a few shrewdies who have cashed out for a profit but the majority will let the bet run in the belief that they have value. When Samcro isn't declared on Sunday they will look to back something else with the money in their account. Something that they might back with another outfit if they didn't think that bet365 were such nice guys. I'd be prepared to bet that their Samcro liability, Supreme and Ballymore, is balanced to their satisfaction.
Frankly, I'm surprised at all the fuss because Getabird would win anyway.:whistle:
 
Eddie O Leary has said Supreme doesn't interest them and he wont be switching regardless of the betting.

Music to my ears.
 
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Not entirely the full story lads. An inch of rain forecast next weekend. Bit of Mullinsitis rubbing off on the O’Leary’s. 🤫


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Next weekend might as well be next year when it comes to predicting quantity of rainfall on a specific area.


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archie said:
There will be a few shrewdies who have cashed out for a profit but the majority will let the bet run in the belief that they have value. When Samcro isn't declared on Sunday they will look to back something else with the money in their account. Something that they might back with another outfit if they didn't think that bet365 were such nice guys. I'd be prepared to bet that their Samcro liability, Supreme and Ballymore, is balanced to their satisfaction.
Frankly, I'm surprised at all the fuss because Getabird would win anyway.:whistle:
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That would be hilarious, Samcro gets declared we all start celebrating only to see Getabird fly away with it on the day.

Glad to have Samcro out the way for First Flow :ninja: :lol:
 
I was pretty confident, despite the presence of Getabird, etc, that Sharjah was going to run away with the Supreme.

The likely soft ground is diminishing that confidence by the day. I might have to look for a serious alternative. I have Debuchet, Scarlet Dragon and Vision Des Flos (all 33s) as 'value' longshots but I might want something with the kind of solidity I thought Sharjah had.
 
I sent Kim Bailey a tweet about First Flow, asking if there had been a change of heart re a Supreme run for First Flow. This was his reply:

Will be entered @KelsoRacecourse as planned and will watch weather @CheltenhamRaces
 
Desert Orchid said:
I was pretty confident, despite the presence of Getabird, etc, that Sharjah was going to run away with the Supreme.

The likely soft ground is diminishing that confidence by the day. I might have to look for a serious alternative. I have Debuchet, Scarlet Dragon and Vision Des Flos (all 33s) as 'value' longshots but I might want something with the kind of solidity I thought Sharjah had.
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The soft ground is a bit of a worry for me 2 of my biggest bets due to run on the Friday really won't want extreme ground probably gd-soft soft in places is do-able any worse than that i could be in trouble.
 
Grasshopper said:
I sent Kim Bailey a tweet about First Flow, asking if there had been a change of heart re a Supreme run for First Flow. This was his reply:

Will be entered @KelsoRacecourse as planned and will watch weather @CheltenhamRaces
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According to Kim’s blog Archie posted up he reckons there’s no rain forecast at all so by that it’d be Kelso.


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If FF swerves the Festival, he swerves it.

My bets are £1996/£11 and £175/£7, so no huge damage done if I don't get a run. :cool:
 
Grasshopper said:
Kim Bailey confirms First Flow will run in the Supreme.

The plot thickens........
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Kims Blog yesterday. 🤣


‘The ground is currently described as soft and good to soft in places and with not a huge amount of rain forecasted the likelihood is that the ground on the first day will be good to soft and after 4 days, good… So be warned don’t go mad backing heavy ground horses’


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