Novice Hurdlers 21/22

Maruco said:
I think when you say 'our job is figuring out what information they have extra, via what they've shown, and how that informs us as to what they're going to do', my original post is doing exactly that isn't it?

Therefore I'll substitute the words 'is a creature of habit' for 'follows a sound and proven methodology' to save splitting hairs, and to avoid the confusion I may have caused in my essay! Although I do sometime wonder why I bother, which is why I haven't much recently! :whistle:
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Well I enjoyed it, Paul.

Keep posting. :)
 
Maruco said:
I think when you say 'our job is figuring out what information they have extra, via what they've shown, and how that informs us as to what they're going to do', my original post is doing exactly that isn't it?

Therefore I'll substitute the words 'is a creature of habit' for 'follows a sound and proven methodology' to save splitting hairs, and to avoid the confusion I may have caused in my essay! Although I do sometime wonder why I bother, which is why I haven't much recently! :whistle:
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Yeah, I read that (and a second time.) You argued for DD for the Supreme then said you don't know then said DD for the Ballymore. I don't actually know what you're arguing for when you say willie is a man of habits when all his habit, according to you, would be for DD in the Supreme but you see SG for the Supreme and DD for the Ballymore, at least as I read it.

As I see it I think DD would be grand out for the Ballymore.

Edit: More importantly, and I'm asking here... Ferny Hollow 2m4f, Blue Lord 2m?

Second edit: A bit of glory with Jungle Boogie 2m and feck Blue Lord?
 
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I'm not sure which post you're misreading FiftyP, but I've suggested unless Sir Gerhard gets turned over at the DRF I expect him to run in the Supreme and Dysart Dynamo more likely the Ballymore based on Willie's usual profile of Supreme horse to go to the Ballymore. I've then gone on to give all my reasoning.

Blue Lord and Ferny Hollow would both have gone to the Supreme last season and Appreciate It would have gone to the Ballymore if that's what you're asking? Or are you talking about this season novice chasing? If so as it stands I suspect both go to the Arkle, and only some kind of reversal would send one or the other up in trip.
 
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It is coming to light that neither JP or MB are for moving and Willie Mullins wont be shirking the issue with the very talented Dysart Dynamo

If this turns out to be the case this trio will make the Shishkin Energumene clash look like childs play.

I don't remember ever seeing a Supreme with 3 such talented horses all ready to rock "n" roll

Sprinter certainly wan't anywhere near mature enough Buveur was so tenderly handled some said he wasn't off a yard and they came closest to it being a race between superstars I can remember.

Each of the trio have a fan base who won't hear of defeat and this is going to be a cracker.

I personally dutched the Henderson par at odds againt along time ago but am I confident?.......afraid not!!! I am not that silly ..as much as I think Dysart of the 3 sticks out as a chaser in the making he has some engine
and his time was massively quicker than 2 races on the same day......which was equak to 40 to 50 lengths and 36 lengths is regarded as being tailed off.

As far as backing longer priced horses EW that looks like something only the most optimistic fool would consider.

Take out the first 4 in the betting and put any one of the first 4 against the rest in the race he's be anywhere between 1/2 and 1/6 to win so there seems to be no angle to be thinking outside the box on this one.

This looks like being the race of a lifetime and I really hope it takes place with all 3 turning up 110% fit
 
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You can make it four when Sir Gerhard kicks them aside next weekend. Thought his run over Christnas was every bit as impressive as DD’s the other week.
 
Sir Gerhard just might be a stonking bet at 4/1 for the Ballymore if he is the only one of thefab four to go there

Ruby seemed very keen on him when his name came up on TRTC saying he had ridden him work and he knew what all the fuss was about when he sat on him
 
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Palavecino 2.38L
Deal A Dollar 3.12L
Double @11.375 B365

tried to delete, but it's clearly beyong me.:whistle:
 
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If he goes Supreme, this El Fabiolo could be a handicap certainty with the hype around it. Seems to obvious though.

Dysart and Kilcruit Supreme.
Sir G Ballymore.
 
Grasshopper said:
Blatant attempt to force Henderson to blink and shift one of his into the Ballymore.
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I doubt if Nicky even bothered has ass watching that non event.

Kilcruit runs he'll add to the chances of Dysart Dynamo by giving him a lead till after the 3rd last then he'll be tailed off.



Even talk of Gordon Elliot running Pied Piper seems crazy.....Don't need a Piper in the Fab Four no futher members required.:)
 
Beef or Salmon said:
Watching it my intial thought was he would be very interesting in the County, Supreme is starting to look incredibly deep and stacked, hopefully they all male iit there.
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Haven't seen the race but when I glanced at its 'disappointing' form so far this season, I did wonder if they were trying to minimise his handicap mark.
 
barjon said:
https://www.attheraces.com/blogs/se...good-v-knicks-go-plus-pied-piper-and-kilcruit

Worth a read - not only Kilcruit’s run, but also a gallop through Shishkin v Energumene.
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I I've little time for NH sectionals and ATR's are based on the leading horse, (which clearly show what we all saw - that Energumene was quicker from cSwinley Bottom than Shishkin) adding fuel to my contention that PT went for home too soon.
Also disagree that Ascot's the stiffer test, as they climb the uphill finish twice at Cheltenham, just once at Ascot.
 
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barjon said:
https://www.attheraces.com/blogs/se...good-v-knicks-go-plus-pied-piper-and-kilcruit

Worth a read - not only Kilcruit’s run, but also a gallop through Shishkin v Energumene.
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Comparing Kicruit to Pied Piper is like comparing chalk to cheese.


Kilcruit was demolished at Cork got his ass kicked at Leopardstown and wins anothing race @1/5 at Punchestown and suddenly he's some kind of superstar??

Comparing him to an up and coming novice like Pied Piper who would eat him for breakfast is bordering on insanity.

If Kicruit turns up at Cheletenham in any race he wins nothing. the horse is Moderate/Good at best he is not top class
 
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