He only really makes two and a half arguments, none of which I find particularly compelling;-
1)
He hasn't faced traffic problems.
Nor would most other horses who typically race prominently. Furthermore, traffic problems aren't usually an issue in championship class jumps races due to the smaller field sizes and the tendency for dead wood to either drop away early or be ridden patiently.
1.5)
He has shown hints of temperament
As have the majority of novice hurdlers and bumper horses. He has also shown more than a hint of battling ability.
2)
has yet to produce a performance that screams superstar
I don't think anybody is calling him a superstar just yet. But his profile is full value for a 150+ mark which befits one with his exciting potential. Generally speaking with hype horses, they've mostly beaten trees but it is very difficult to poke holes in the quality of his form. Looking at his efforts in pattern races;-
Navan Bumper
2nd (4.75 comfortable lengths) -
Midnight Run - Convincing winner of a bumper containing Column of Fire (since 3rd to Elixir d'Ainay and 2nd to Longhouse Poet) and Easywork (won all three subsequent starts and prominent in any novice market for the festival)
3rd (another 5 lengths) -
Run Wild Fred - Won three subsequent races including one from Fiddlerontheroof
Leopardstown Bumper
2nd -
Meticulous - 8th in bumper sole subsequent start
3rd -
Embittered - Won 25 runner Naas maiden hurdle, three defeats all in Grade One company
4th -
Beacon Edge - 3rd in Punchestown G1 Bumper, won 19 runner Punchestown maiden
5th -
Mt Leinster - 2nd then 7th in festival bumpers at Fairyhouse and Punchestown, 1½l 2nd to Easywork at Gowran before winning 18 runner maiden on boxing day.
6th -
Run Wild Fred - see above
Cheltenham Bumper
2nd -
Blue Sari - won 22 runner Punchestown maiden, too bad to be true in G1
3rd -
Thyne Hill - won Persian War from Fiddlerontheroof, won Hyde Novices' from Champagne Well and Happygolucky (both placed in G2s), won G1 Challow.
4th -
Abacadabras - 2nd Punchestown Bumper, won For Auction from Latest Exhibition by three easy lengths, 2nd to Envoi Allen, won Future Champions by eight lengths
5th -
The Glancing Queen - won Aintree Bumper sole subsequent start from Minella Melody (listed winner at Punchestown) and Daylight Katie (G3 winner from Jeremys Flame)
Royal Bond
2nd -
Abacadabras - see above
3rd -
Carver Star - came into race on back of four wins on the bounce including a listed race and a handicap off 133 by five comfortable lengths
4th -
Turnpike Trip - three wins and a second over hurdles beforehand, subsequently fourth in competitive Ascot handicap off 146
5th -
Embittered - see above
Naas Novice
2nd -
Elixir d'Ainay - sole Mullins representative, won 16 runner Naas maiden from Longhouse Poet and Column Of Fire
3rd -
Longhouse Poet - won 25 runner Navan maiden
Save for winning every single race on the bridle by a distance, what else could Envoi Allen have done at this stage? Again, I will not suggest that he will be the next superstar but it is very difficult to crab what he has achieved thus far without resorting to tenuousness. Every Grade One and Grade Two novice hurdle in Britain and Ireland has either been taken by Envoi Allen, a horse beaten by Envoi Allen, or through Envoi Allen on collateral form. There have been hype horses in the past, including many whose reputation is based on homework and a solitary maiden win. But I would be interested to see how many of them had form this solid at this stage before having their bubbles emphatically burst.
