Novice & Juvenile Hurdlers 2019/20

Desert Orchid said:
Hope he has NRNB. If I had that price and he ended up not running I'd want a sick bag the size of a bin liner.
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How would NRNB help you when a 3s shot you are on at 33s doesn't run? I'd rather lose the money and not be reminded of it
 
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If I thought it was going to win and for some reason it couldn't run I'd feel I missed out on a 33/1 winner.

I've been there before. I was on Bourbon Prince at 33/1 back in the '70s and it ended up 6/4f. The meeting was abandoned and all I got was my stake back.
 
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Nothing worse. Imagine the people on Best Mate for the Arkle the year of F&M at fancy prices. He would have won by a fence.
 
We touched briefly on 'inflated' ratings the other day and I said I didn't really buy into the theory but I should have excepted the juveniles.

I noted a number of years ago, probably not long after Phil Smith took over, that juveniles were generally higher-rated than previously.

The most glaring example I can call to mind is Katarino. I backed this one fairly heavily ante-post at something like 7/1 for his Triumph after he hit 142 on my ratings in a race leading up to the festival. He was awarded an OR of 141 and at the time I couldn't recall many previous winners of the Triumph on that kind of rating on my figures.

(As an aside, it's an approach I've profited from down the years: when something hits or beats a level that most winners of the relevant race hit then there's often value to be had.)

I notice in the RP database, Katarino had an RPR of 158 for winning the Adonis. I don't recall that at the time but in the back of my mind I do recall ratings being globally upscaled at one point.

If the ratings can - as they should in theory - be a means of comparing horses across generations then Solo is right up there. I had Defi Du Seuil on 158 for winning his Triumph but I wouldn't make a direct comparison between my ratings and RPRs.

All in all, though, you would have to conclude that solo's new rating makes him the one to beat. I've taken 3/1 NRNB.
 
People are going to spend the day moaning and shitting on this rating because they can't bring themselves to take the 3/1. Being the on the "no"side of every argument is where the kool kids want to be these days. Solo just ******* wins the Triumph...
 
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Agree. I've been all in on Allmankind from early doors. I'd heard good things before his first run for Skelton and the stable have been very confident. I can't ignore what I saw on Saturday though and I've since rated his second French run which was also very good. Saturday was a big step up though, and I think the handicapper has him just about spot on. Although I have his assessment of Allmankind and Goshen in direct reverse with Allmankind 3lbs better of the two.

Nicholls has got one here and I've adjusted my position accordingly. And I agree whether you got an early price or not, he won't go off at 3/1 when people finally realise that he's the real deal and need to adjust as I have. I can't not have him onside, and he becomes one of the bankers of the meeting.
 
Might cash out my fancy prices on the other contenders and whack it all on Solo.

If Slim says it wins, it normally ******* wins.
 
I don't keep ratings but came across this on Twitter, anyone want to comment ?

"Solo up 11 to 157 - What has the handicapper been smoking? He beat Tremwedge (3rd) by 18 1/2 lengths giving him 5lb. Chantry House gave the same horse 18 lbs (think it was 16lb?) & he beat him 11 lengths - CH was given 140. What am I missing?"
 
Also Ben of NTF recommends caution

[h=3]2. Paul Nicholls unleashed a juvenile monster in the Adonis Hurdle…[/h] …that horse being the exciting French recruit SOLO, who pummeled the Adonis field by an eye-popping 13-lengths.


There were plenty rumblings pre-race that the youngster was potentially something out of the top drawer and the 4yo justified those rumblings in no uncertain terms.
He now finds himself at the head of the Triumph Hurdle market but it has to be pointed out that his sire – KAPGARDE – doesn’t have the strongest of stats at Cheltenham with his hurdlers…


Kapgarde Hurdlers at Cheltenham
4/52 | 7.5% S/R | -£26.37 LSP – W&P 18/52 | 35% S/R
35% below expectation
…with those stats dropping to…
0/23 | 0% S/R | -£23.00 LSP – W&P 5/23 | 22% S/R
…for Kapgarde Hurdlers at the Cheltenham Festival.
(To level out the Festival stats a bit, only 3 of them started at single figure prices so it’s not as if a number of strongly fancied ones have bombed)



Is that enough to go hard against the new Triumph Hurdle favourite?
No, not quite, but certainly enough to make you think twice.
Those stats alone won’t get the horse beaten, obviously, but they certainly give plenty food for thought…


Can SOLO defy those Kapgarde hurdling stats?
.
 
Slim said:
People are going to spend the day moaning and shitting on this rating because they can't bring themselves to take the 3/1. Being the on the "no"side of every argument is where the kool kids want to be these days. Solo just ******* wins the Triumph...
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Correct.

Besides, who gives a f*ck what the handicapper has given him off the back of the Adonis?

A mark only matters if he is put in a handicap (not going to happen), or at the end of the season, when we're scrapping over what they have all achieved (by which point, the Kempton mark will have been re-visited anyway).

This horse travels, quickens, and - most importantly for a juvenile - he jumps like an old hand. He will wipe his hole with the Triumph field.
 
Been hearing for a couple of months now that the three nut jobs at the head of the market are going to go off like **** off a shovel, cut their own throats and leave it open for another strong travelling, well settled decent jumper to travel just off the pace and pick them off on the run-in....and then we see a horse boom up in a major trial looking more than well equipped to do just that and everybody starts wringing their hands about borderline irrelevant handicap marks. Don't get it. I'll trust what I've seen, take my chance at 3-1 and stand or fall by it.
 
Solo was extremely impressive and WilsonL told me last week to get on at 33/1 and I didn’t! More fall me! And this is the only reason I’m considering not taking the 3/1 as I’m too p*ssed off with myself!

Anyhow, he’s been rated 157... which is similar to most of the front end of the Champion Hurdle market... Higher than Silver Streak was rated when third to Espoir in a much better race last year!

Yes, he’s a juvenile and I know it’s unheard of but in a year where you’re competing against a weak weak field, would it not be tempting?

Either way, I have a friend who is a ‘Gold Member’ with Hills who has got me 20/1, nrnb!

Maybe I’m mad, maybe I’m trying to make up for missing out on the 33/1 but still...


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Flyingbolt won the Champion Hurdle as a yearling, before finishing 3rd in the Gold Cup, later the same afternoon.

#fakeracinghistory
 
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