Poll: Brexit - Two Years After

Stay or Leave

  • Stay

    Votes: 23 60.5%

  • Leave

    Votes: 15 39.5%
  • Total voters
    38
Well the next PM market is hotting up, especially as it looks like being a Tory party leadership run off.

I do have a sneaking memory that I buried some shekels on Michael Gove at 33/1 about 18 months ago. Also think I saved on Liam Fox at 100/1 too

I do believe however, if you're into throwing a bit of shrapnel at long shots, there is a plausible scenario that ends with Dominic Grieve whose likely to be 250/1 if you can get a price
 
7/4 to be an election in 2018,must be some right nutters around betting those sort of prices..
 
Warbler said:
Well the next PM market is hotting up, especially as it looks like being a Tory party leadership run off.

I do have a sneaking memory that I buried some shekels on Michael Gove at 33/1 about 18 months ago. Also think I saved on Liam Fox at 100/1 too

I do believe however, if you're into throwing a bit of shrapnel at long shots, there is a plausible scenario that ends with Dominic Grieve whose likely to be 250/1 if you can get a price
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That Dominc Grieve comes across as an Alan B'stard type infact looks quite like the chracter as well..
 
There's three factions in the conservative party.

Hard, Soft, & Remain

Impulsive idiots like Boris Johnson are setting up to try and create a leadership challenge. This potentially jeopardises the whole programme. The savvy strategists like Michael Gove have worked it out. Gove's priority is to leave the EU. It doesn't matter if it's a soft Brexit. Once they're out, the Tories can turn a soft Brexit into a hard Brexit at a later date

There is a scenario where hard Brexiteers cut their own throat in the anxiousness to get rid of Theresa May's soft Brexit. If say 30 of them submit letters of no confidence against her soft Brexit proposal, this potential open the door for the 20 publicly declared Remainians to also submit letters which will trigger a leadership election

Here's the rub

The compromise soft Brexit is neither one thing or another to either wing. It could easily be rejected by both sides. Even if this doesn't happen, it only requires a leadership election to take place with two discernably different Brexit policies being represented. Once the final two candidates are known, the country is going to go mad if they're espousing different positions. Basically the Tories are going to be accussed (credibly) of ring fencing a second referendum for the exclusive decision of their own membership. As soon as a leadership election is triggered Brexiteers have a real problem. My own guess is the country would go into revolt if they tried to do this, and the pressure (especially as opinion polls come in over the next 3 weeks or so) would mount for them to expand the mandate to the entire country and offer a 'people's referendum'. Boris has potentially badly miscalculated in his quest to wear the crown

It's widely known that the parliamentary party if they were offered a free unwhipped vote, and a secret ballot, would probably return a 'Remain' as their first choice. Most Tory MP's campaigned and voted for this option after all. What's preventing them from doing so now is respect for the result! - yeah right. No. What's preventing them is that their constituency chairmen, and local associations can see how they're voting in parliament. They can't however see how they'd vote in a leadership contest

If Remain can push the hardcore Brexiteers over the threshold of 48 signatures, and then field their own candidate, and if the parliamentary party returns that candidate into the run off, then there has to be every chance Brexit won't happen
 
archie said:
What it appears to be is false news:
https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/ethnic-groups-borough

As far as I can see, the only boroughs with below 40% ethnic white population are Newham (34%) and Brent (36%).
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you have not taken illegals into consideration.... I wonder how many on this site actually live in inner citys .. maybe a Poll is in order..I doubt many live where white population is anywhere near the above stats... goodnight
 
Unfortunately, ozgood appears to represent a rather large percentage of the Leave constituency - the one that figures the EU is responsible for Asian and African migration to the UK, and by extension, figures leaving the EU will fix it.

Used to be a word for people like this: thick c*unts.
 
Two of my brothers were/are leavers, for reasons that have nothing to do with immigration and certainly not racism.
 
reet hard said:
TBH Grassy, it's the thick c*unts that seem to tar all 'leavers' with the racist brush.:mad:
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Try and follow the argument, reet. Ozgood is referencing white ethnicity percentages, which have zero relevance in a debate about EU migration......unless he is referring to the gates being opened at Calais once we leave, which stands the Leave/Immigration argument on its head anyway, and that’s ignoring opening-up to Ukranian fruit-pickers, are approving untold thousands of Indian work-visas to secure a trade deal.

For the record, anyone who still thinks leaving the EU is a good thing - despite every negative now having been made abundantly clear over the last two years - assuredly is a thick cu*nt, whether they are racist or not.

Always had you down as rather a clever stick all these years, but maybe I was wrong.
 
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And who says ''Ozgood represents a large percentage of the leave constituency''? Some smart guy, or someone peddling their own version of the truth, simply to promote their own standpoint.
 
I've joined this party a bit late, but FWIW, I'm a dyed-in-the-wool Remainiac. I haven't got over it and still argue like a ******* on Facebook, particularly as to why I won't accept the result, whilst my elected representatives cannot decide amongst themselves what happens next. Listening to Dominic Grieve on Newsnight last night, he seemed to be making an argument that if we fail to make a deal with the EU, Parliament will attempt to save the country from itself, by aligning along Leave-Remain lines; a "National Govt" would then negotiate our exit from the EU, OR put another referendum to the country.

As an aside, that spineless twAt Cameron brought this **** upon us, all so that he could see off UKIP at the 2015 General Election. He promised a referendum for no other reason than party interest.

I'm totally convinced that we will win this argument, btw.
 
As an aside to the above aside, my newish job involves quite a bit of travel to the Commission in Brussels. Needless to say, as a huge Europhile, I absolutely love it, but I'm reliably informed that our relationship with other member states' officials (civil servants) has massively changed in a short space of time. Where previously, others sought us out to form alliances in agreeing/ amending proposed legislation, all other officials are prepared to grant us these days is a polite hello.

One final aside. I went to Brussels last week to discuss an agricultural programme that the EU will run from 2021-27. The UK were instructed not to say anything, merely attend in listening mode. But if anyone ever tells you that we are "definitely, definitely leaving" you can "definitely, definitely" tell them from me to fvck off, or else what was I do doing there listening?
 
Len Madeiros said:
I've joined this party a bit late, but FWIW, I'm a dyed-in-the-wool Remainiac. I haven't got over it and still argue like a ******* on Facebook, particularly as to why I won't accept the result, whilst my elected representatives cannot decide amongst themselves what happens next. Listening to Dominic Grieve on Newsnight last night, he seemed to be making an argument that if we fail to make a deal with the EU, Parliament will attempt to save the country from itself, by aligning along Leave-Remain lines; a "National Govt" would then negotiate our exit from the EU, OR put another referendum to the country.

As an aside, that spineless twAt Cameron brought this **** upon us, all so that he could see off UKIP at the 2015 General Election. He promised a referendum for no other reason than party interest.

I'm totally convinced that we will win this argument, btw.
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Thanks for that; I'm certainly not going to stop fighting Brexit, but have to admit to suffering from a bit of 'Brexit fatigue' sometimes. Annoyingly I can't get to a 'Left Against Brexit' meeting next week but they do say there will be other meetings throughout the summer.
 
moehat said:
Thanks for that; I'm certainly not going to stop fighting Brexit, but have to admit to suffering from a bit of 'Brexit fatigue' sometimes. Annoyingly I can't get to a 'Left Against Brexit' meeting next week but they do say there will be other meetings throughout the summer.
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Good to see that there is 'Left Against Brexit' movement, Moehat. I was beginning to think that the left were so far up Corbyn's ars and in line with his thinking that they were hoping that Brexit would come to pass, and that Corbyn would be able to enact his siege economy upon the UK. I despise Corbyn's role in all of this, almost as much as I despise Johnson's and co.
 
Me, too. Feel totally let down by the party I have always supported. Led to believe that they were 'playing the long game' but long since stopped believing that one. Someone who gave a pro EU speech at the party conference last year was verbally abused afterwards; I don't know if he's still in the party as I haven't spoken to him for a while.And now the LibDems seem to have let their supporters down, too. My big hero, Brexit wise, is Anna Soubry [who we met at the races last year]. Also Ken Clarke, Chukka, Tom Brake, Chris Leslie, Andrew Adonis [and several others].
 
moehat said:
Me, too. Feel totally let down by the party I have always supported. Led to believe that they were 'playing the long game' but long since stopped believing that one. Someone who gave a pro EU speech at the party conference last year was verbally abused afterwards; I don't know if he's still in the party as I haven't spoken to him for a while.And now the LibDems seem to have let their supporters down, too. My big hero, Brexit wise, is Anna Soubry [who we met at the races last year]. Also Ken Clarke, Chukka, Tom Brake, Chris Leslie, Andrew Adonis [and several others].
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It’s mad how our heroes represent parties that would normally be our natural enemies. Shows how Brexit has changed the game completely.
 
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Each new day seems to bring with it another new negative.

It is a total shamblathon.

(Did I just coin a new word there?)
 
I was a remainer, but there are far worse choices and convenient lies people willfully believe in than voting to leave the European Union. The term self fullfilling prophecy is very relevent in today's world. Believe it enough, it may become true. This is the hallmark of the bourgeoisie intelligentsia in the 21st century. Riddled with guilt about their own incompetence, greed and nepotistic ways, as always. If the truth is never properly explained then you can't call it the 'truth' can you? Or can you?
 
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