Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2011

sunybay said:
Galikova has 10 pounds to find and some doubts about the ground.
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Which the WFA scale generously puts in her lap. She also probably has the most improvement in her. I'm sure she'll be fine on the going.
 
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10 and also the weight for age

in all my posts I consider the wfa ,

about the ground, she is not a quickener, for me soft ground is a help for her.
 
Euronymous said:
I don't see how. He travelled well within himself throughout the race and cut the field down. I don't see anything other than a rampant welter burden stopping him winning that race.
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because with 8lb more on his back you can knock 5 lengths of his performance..so technically wouldn't have won

thats last i'm saying re wfa..

i'm starting to think that Steve is just trying to wrangle a "technical" win for F & G......hard luck + wfa stopped him winning like ;)
 
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EC1 said:
i'm starting to think that Steve is just trying to wrangle a "technical" win for F & G......hard luck + wfa stopped him winning like ;)
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I'd already thought of that... trouble is I couldn't quite make the numbers work.;)
 
SteveM said:
Which the WFA scale generously puts in her lap. She also probably has the most improvement in her. I'm sure she'll be fine on the going.
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Galikova with your famous weight allowance beats Sara Lynx by 4 , to win an arc like this she should do it by 10, too many lengths to find for my liking.


The key is So You think, with stable tactics and if able to mantein the form over a longer distance after a hard season, other than that in what looks a field of no mroe than 14, Sarafina targeted for this is the one to be on.
 
Galikova has nowhere near that much to find, she put in at least a 120 performance in the Vermeille and is almost certain to improve yet again. Not to mention, she'll thrive even more off the good pace they're likely to go in the race.

She still represents the only small bit of value left in the race at 8/1 now with possibly Hirano D'Amour at 20/1 also a touch big.
 
I disagree

she is not hardly raced but she has not improve in my figure too much,
in the Vermeille she was not running a trial, she was running in a gr1 after having a prep in deaville in August, I think she is a 120 and some doubts about the ground.
 
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She has no more doubts about the ground than the 125 maximum Sarafina who has to give weight to Head's filly and is half the price in the betting.
 
Sarafina is a gf mare for me,
the stride she has and that turn of foot is the one of a mare that will be suited by it.
 
How can you say Sarafina is a GF horse but not Galikova? Neither of them have form on officially GF ground although I'd say Galikova's defeat in the Diane and Sarafina's defeat in the Ganay were both quicker than the given description.
 
Heard a rumour this morning that So You Think does not run and that there will be an avalanche of money for St Nicholas Abbey before any of us are too much older.....
 
Gamla Stan said:
Galikova has nowhere near that much to find, she put in at least a 120 performance in the Vermeille and is almost certain to improve yet again. Not to mention, she'll thrive even more off the good pace they're likely to go in the race.
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This seems right to me... I note that the raw (unadjusted) RP data has So You Think and Galikova both on 141 at the head of the ratings. This coverts back to key best ratings of about 132 and 121 respectively adjusted for the race, leaving Galikova with a great chance. What the RP data is effectively saying is if you add back the 11lb WFA they have an identical chance (...some may choose not to do this of course). But when you factor in likely improvement she surely must go close.
 
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14 left in this morning with the supplementary stage to come.

WORKFORCE
SO YOU THINK
ST NICHOLAS ABBEY
SILVER POND
HIRUNO D'AMOUR
NAKAYAMA FESTA
SARAFINA
SNOW FAIRY
TREASURE BEACH
SEVILLE
RELIABLE MAN
SHARETA
TESTOSTERONE
GALIKOVA

Entries are also up for the other races on france galop.
 
Treasure Beach, Seville and Shareta surely won't run and I'd think Testosterone would be more likely to go for the Opera. With Danedream and Meandre to be supplemented, this will leave a maximum of 13.
 
I'm starting to think that perhaps Treasure Beach is intended, he'd be entitled to show up pretty well. Any yard other than Ballydoyle and he'd be a definite.
 
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Freddy Head also seems to buy into Galikova’s chances re WFA:

“Head won the race four times as a jockey, two of those successes coming on three-year-old fillies in the shape of San San in 1972 and Three Troikas in 1979,and he reckons the weight that Galikova will receive from the horses in front of her in the betting gives her a great chance.
Galikova will get 8lb from favourite Sarafina and 11lb from both So You Think and Workforce and Head said: "I won two with three-year-old fillies when I was a jockey so I know that three-year-old fillies do well in the race. The weight is very good for them because they receive a lot of weight."

Source: RP website
 
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