Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2011

Gamla Stan said:
How can you say Sarafina is a GF horse but not Galikova? Neither of them have form on officially GF ground although I'd say Galikova's defeat in the Diane and Sarafina's defeat in the Ganay were both quicker than the given description.
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Here comes the advert :lol:

Seriously though, Timeform have been doing their own time-based ground assessments for a number of years in France, and carry that information rather than the official in the comments/form figs. We've got Galikova's Cleopatre win being on g/f and Sarafina's GRand Prix de Saint Cloud, Prix Ganay and Last year's Saint Alary being g/f.
 
I've never noticed that, whilst the Timeform/Betfair free website is undoubtedly total gash, that is very useful and I trust your mob on these things more than France Galop and the RP.

Once you sort out the website and start hand timing every Irish race, I'd consider moving my subscription from the RP site to yourselves.
 
SteveM said:
Freddy Head also seems to buy into Galikova’s chances re WFA:

“Head won the race four times as a jockey, two of those successes coming on three-year-old fillies in the shape of San San in 1972 and Three Troikas in 1979,and he reckons the weight that Galikova will receive from the horses in front of her in the betting gives her a great chance.
Galikova will get 8lb from favourite Sarafina and 11lb from both So You Think and Workforce and Head said: "I won two with three-year-old fillies when I was a jockey so I know that three-year-old fillies do well in the race. The weight is very good for them because they receive a lot of weight."

Source: RP website
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Trainer talks up his horse's chance in advance of big race shock.

If she's beaten, it'll be "it's never easy for a 3-y-o filly taking on these fully mature older colts."
 
SteveM said:
This seems right to me... I note that the raw (unadjusted) RP data has So You Think and Galikova both on 141 at the head of the ratings. This coverts back to key best ratings of about 132 and 121 respectively adjusted for the race, leaving Galikova with a great chance. What the RP data is effectively saying is if you add back the 11lb WFA they have an identical chance (...some may choose not to do this of course). But when you factor in likely improvement she surely must go close.
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steve
the problem is I dont knwo when you are talking serioulsy or just joking


Racing post has programation mistake that not adjust to the wfa in the 5 days entries but in the final cards they do


Galikova was running to 120 in the last but with the wfa in account so if you continue with your famous absolute ratings deduct 9 pounds and she run to 111,


this is the last post I do trying to explain what is obvious,
 
gus said:
Trainer talks up his horse's chance in advance of big race shock.

If she's beaten, it'll be "it's never easy for a 3-y-o filly taking on these fully mature older colts."
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I don't see it like this. He seems very bullish as to her chances and as I fancy her anyway I'm not put off.

The money's down and I feeling okay about it. Although I've backed Sarafina earlier I now have a bigger position/return in Galikova.
 
sunybay said:
steve
the problem is I dont knwo when you are talking serioulsy or just joking


Racing post has programation mistake that not adjust to the wfa in the 5 days entries but in the final cards they do


Galikova was running to 120 in the last but with the wfa in account so if you continue with your famous absolute ratings deduct 9 pounds and she run to 111,


this is the last post I do trying to explain what is obvious,
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I am fully aware of this old mate.... it is simply a way of looking at it. By your reckoning she has some 21lb to find, I'm just showing you another way of looking at the figures. The Racing Post figures are not a "mistake", simply unadjusted. I've already explained how these count back to best ratings of 132 and 121 for SYT and Galikova respectively.
 
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Gosden has all but ruled Nathaniel out but says they may supplement Masked Marvel in the morning instead!
 
Gamla Stan said:
Gosden has all but ruled Nathaniel out but says they may supplement Masked Marvel in the morning instead!
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I love it! Eleventh hour surprises keep us on our toes... They'll have to go a real pace for MM to come into it, but perhaps they will.
 
I was really impressed with his Leger win. He looked a class apart to me and one thing I do know is that John Gosden is a man to take seriously when he supplements a horse. He is not one for tilting at Windmills so if he did run I would not be at all surprised to see him run a big race. He is relatively lightly raced as well, which helps.

I'm not one for ratings but I really don't understand how Galikova can have a rating of 141!!!
 
Aragorn said:
I was really impressed with his Leger win. He looked a class apart to me and one thing I do know is that John Gosden is a man to take seriously when he supplements a horse. He is not one for tilting at Windmills so if he did run I would not be at all surprised to see him run a big race. He is relatively lightly raced as well, which helps.

I'm not one for ratings but I really don't understand how Galikova can have a rating of 141!!!
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She doesn't she has a best RPR of 121. The 141 is a raw feed (unadjusted). On the same scale you might be interested to know that Masked Marvel has a RPR of 124 for the Leger - if you wanted to add back the 8lb WFA (which again some will not wish to do) he'd also give SYT a run for his money given a fast pace.
 
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davidjohnson said:
Isn't the 141 an incorrectly adjusted figure. The raw form figure is the 121? Or am I missing something.
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Whichever way round you want to express it. One figure is everything stripped out, the other left in. The 121 is her RPR. Think of it like Gross and Net.
 
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SteveM said:
I don't see it like this. He seems very bullish as to her chances and as I fancy her anyway I'm not put off.

The money's down and I feeling okay about it. Although I've backed Sarafina earlier I now have a bigger position/return in Galikova.
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How many trainers who have horses running in the Arc don't fancy their horse's chances?
 
Hamm said:
I'm confused - where does 141 come into the equation? I'm missing something...
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It's simply the way the RP feed comes through. It a gross amount from which the actual rating is derived. When adjusted for a race it is 132 for SYT and 121 for the filly.
 
SteveM said:
It's simply the way the RP feed comes through. It a gross amount from which the actual rating is derived. When adjusted for a race it is 132 for SYT and 121 for the filly.
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I understand the adjusting down part but have no idea where 141 comes from - it just seems wrong?
 
SteveM said:
It's simply the way the RP feed comes through. It a gross amount from which the actual rating is derived. When adjusted for a race it is 132 for SYT and 121 for the filly.
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No. 132 is So You Think's unadjusted master rating, 121 is Galikova's unadjusted master rating. As So You Think carries 9-5 9 lb is added to his master rating to equalise to 10 stone, in the same way that 12 lb is added to Sarafina's to equalise to 10 stone because she only carries 9-2.

What has happened is that the RP is automatically adjusting all ratings to 10 stone so Galikova who carries 8-8 has had 20 lb added to her bare rating. This is where the 141 comes from, but it is an error, no matter what Steve M says, and something that will be corrected when the WFA is added in, presumably at the dec stage and certainly in time for what you see in the paper on the day of the race.
 
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davidjohnson said:
No. 132 is So You Think's unadjusted master rating, 121 is Galikova's unadjusted master rating. As So You Think carries 9-5 9 lb is added to his master rating to equalise to 10 stone, in the same way that 12 lb is added to Sarafina's to equalise to 10 stone because she only carries 9-2.

What has happened is that the RP is automatically adjusting all ratings to 10 stone so Galikova who carries 8-8 has had 20 lb added to her bare rating.
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Yes. I wish I hadn't mentioned the 141.

This explains how close it would be if you added back WFA (as I've said not everyone will want to do this).

Masked Marvel 124 + 8 = 132

Galikova 121 + 11 = 132

SYT = 132
 
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