Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2011

Says a lot about the quality of the race when a Coronation Cup winner and an Irish Derby winner are each available at 40/1. It's not like they've completely disgraced themselves since, or that either are guaranteed to be used as pacemakers.
 
...very true. Part of those prices must be related to some uncertainty about them actually lining up. Nevertheless either could represent a bit of value.
 
Reliable Man won't take part if there is no rain. In that eventuality he is likely to be switched to Ascot (Champion Stakes).
 
They were still that price after the final decs when the market had switched from ante post, although SNA is now biggest 33s.
 
Probably more to do with the fact that SNA won a dire Coronation Cup and has ran two very average races since and Treasure Beach got firmly put in his place by two colts he reopposes in this race.

Surprised about Reliable Man, I think he goes on most ground. It wasn't GS when he won the French Derby and his wins prior to that were certainly the faster side of Good.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Probably more to do with the fact that SNA won a dire Coronation Cup and has ran two very average races since and Treasure Beach got firmly put in his place by two colts he reopposes in this race..
Click to expand...

That's just about the harshest reading of their form you could realistically write, and I still don't think it makes them 40/1 shots. They're that price because of the depth of the race.
 
Only Workforce, Nakayama Festa, Shareta, Testosterone and Silver Pond have failed to win at the highest level in 2011.

The first two have had injury problems, the second two come from a very strong crop of 3yo fillies with Testosterone having beaten dual Group 1 winner Danedream already this year whilst Silver Pond won a Group 2 in June and was G1 placed later that month.

That should put the depth of the race in perspective :)
 
Last edited:
I'm looking for horses at big prices that will step up on previous form based on them getting a very fast run race, and SNA is one of those that interests me. Who else could benefit?
 
SNA has to step up massively though.

Hiruno D'Amour is the only one at a price that still probably represents value, won over 1m2f and 2m and will come on for the Foy run.
 
Meandre at 12's will surely run far better than in the Niel granted a strong pace.

Danedream a candidate too surely - pace wasn't too strong when she was beaten at Saint-Cloud whilst she's finished strongly in most of her other races, bit to find with the likes of Reliable Man but think she'll improve granted a stronger pace.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Says a lot about the quality of the race when a Coronation Cup winner and an Irish Derby winner are each available at 40/1. It's not like they've completely disgraced themselves since, or that either are guaranteed to be used as pacemakers.
Click to expand...

see it in another way:

horses out:

Golden Lilac (Diane)
Pour Moi (derby)
Cirrus Des Aigles (multiple group winner)
Behkabad
Blue Bunting (irish oaks)
Baraan (unlucky in the jc)
Nathaniel (KING George)
Rewilding (Pof W and Sheema)
Await The Dawn (hardwicke)
Midday (nassau)
Sea Moon (G Voltigeur)
Victorie Pasa (arima and dwc)
Carlton House
Orfevre (japanese chmapion)
Dancing Rain( oaks)
Twice Over (international)
scalo
waldpark (german derby)
 
Last edited:
Good point Suny. Imagine some of the prices you'd get on some very very good horses if Pour Moi, Rewilding and Nathaniel were in there.
 
I don't see what form Danedream has to figure in the first 6?

Same with Meandre. His only piece of form is a 1 length beating of Seville, when Seville and TB went way too quick.

SNA has a good chance with a strong pace, which he hasn't had the past 2 races. Ground could be a worry. But, at 33s, he has to be a huge bet e/w. He has already beaten the best older middle distance filly in the Coronation cup quite comfortably, and there's nothing to say he can't run to the high 120s.

For me, I am positive about:
Sarafina
Workforce
Galikova
SNA
Snow Fairy

Negative:
So you think
Meandre
Danedream
Masked Marvel
Reliable Man
Treasure Beach
 
Hamm said:
SNA has a good chance with a strong pace, which he hasn't had the past 2 races. Ground could be a worry. But, at 33s, he has to be a huge bet e/w. He has already beaten the best older middle distance filly in the Coronation cup quite comfortably, and there's nothing to say he can't run to the high 120s.
Click to expand...

Apart from the fact that he hasn't and has had numerous chances to in G1 company. That Coronation Cup was dire, I said this at the time (proximity of Clowance and cack James Given horses illustrate this) and SNA hasn't proven otherwise since. He's held by two opponents here on the Foy form when both of them weren't race fit. The horse is still dining out on his two year old reputation.
 
What is better form? Beating Midday by a length or so, or beating Seville by a length and TB a further length?

SNA has run in races that had no pace the last times 2 times, and this was never going to suit. I am not saying he will win, but he can, and he is hugely overpriced considering he will finally get the pace he needs. He shouldn't be longer than Masked Marvel, Meandre, Danedream et al.
 
Last edited:
Gamla Stan said:
Apart from the fact that he hasn't and has had numerous chances to in G1 company. That Coronation Cup was dire, I said this at the time (proximity of Clowance and cack James Given horses illustrate this) and SNA hasn't proven otherwise since. He's held by two opponents here on the Foy form when both of them weren't race fit. The horse is still dining out on his two year old reputation.
Click to expand...

The point about the horse though is that he will always be seen to best affect in a big(ish) field with a fast pace. So His Coronation Cup, KG and Foy runs aren't that relevent really. Although for me I would add he was travelling really well at Ascot and I think Rewilding's demise may have put him off for a stride or two. He should be 16s
 
The Foy was ran at a decent enough pace. Nakayama Festa took them a long at a nice pace, the sectionals were quicker than the Niel. He hasn't got a prayer in reversing the form with the 1st and 2nd from there barring any accidents.

I'm not even sure the Arc is going to be run at a good pace, other than Shareta, where is the pace going to come from? Unless Ballydoyle sacrifice Treasure Beach. It's not like a lot of recent Arcs where there are 4 or 5 who will obviously make the pace.
 
Back
Top