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Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2011

Euronymous said:
The problem with 3yo's having such a gangbuster record in the race is the tendancy one has to fall for really shit ones. Zambezi Sun, Prospect Park and Soldier of Fortune were all ropey ones who started well under 10/1.
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This is my concern with Meandre and the other Grand Prix De Paris runners but the market has this factored in given they're all currently double figures.
 
EC1 said:
TB is decent marker..compare Meandre to Pour Moi using TB as marker.

Meandre has as good a chance as any of the 3yo's in the race..imo
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EC,

Where are you getting the idea I think Pour Moi is a great horse? I haven't mentioned it on this thread, and have very much come to the conclusion the 3yo colts (middle distance) are hopeless.
 
...Meandre is a nice name for an Arc winner imo....I love French words [well, some] and it's a particularly nice one.
 
Hamm said:
EC,

Where are you getting the idea I think Pour Moi is a great horse? I haven't mentioned it on this thread, and have very much come to the conclusion the 3yo colts (middle distance) are hopeless.
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well if you think PM isn't up to much then there isn't much i can say tbh

i'm not saying meandre is some kind of certainty by the way..its just he will carry my money...i haven't got a strong view on the race..but i do like his profile
 
I think that there is so much hype about So You Think being a hype horse, resulting in the most consistent horse, with the best form being a very tempting 9/2.

Sarafina has looked good and obviously has a lot of potential...but SYT has the form in the book against top notchers. SYT is a nailed on 130 RPR horse.

Galikova.....pffft. She could be good, but are the 3yo French middle distance horses any good? Testosterone? Maybe, but she doesn't do it for me. Again, she needs to improve 7lb to beat SYT.

Workforce would scare me if he was on song, but he has had his problems, and the ground may be too quick.

Meandre, Masked Marvel and Snow Fairy are all very good horses...but I don't think they are capable of the level of form that So You Think has shown repeatedly.

In summary, So You Think is a big bet for the Bull.

Hope you are all well.

Barry
 
He hasn't got the best form Bar - and even if he did this is not his sort of race. He's one of the worst 9/2 shots I've ever seen.
 
Does anyone else think masked marvel might be value at 14/1 john gosden doesn't waste 100k of his owners money surely especially with the strength in this race
 
Euronymous said:
I'd want 14s on him to place never mind win.
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Totally agree with this but totally disagree about SYT. He has the best form in the race and his consistency of hitting high 120s is astonishing. I wish I'd backed him at 7s but like most of the rest of the field at this stage in a Group One race of this magnitude, he is the right price. The market is rarely wrong in a race of this stature given the amount of money circulated in the market.
 
Gamla Stan said:
I wish I'd backed him at 7s but like most of the rest of the field at this stage in a Group One race of this magnitude, he is the right price. The market is rarely wrong in a race of this stature given the amount of money circulated in the market.
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Leaving our differing opinions on SYT aside I can't have this at all. Workforce plainly wasn't the right price last year and neither was Behkabad. I think it's dangerous to assume the market is efficient when it comes to big races because of all the publicity. There were some amazing examples at the Festival in March of complete ricks - it happens.
 
Euronymous said:
Leaving our differing opinions on SYT aside I can't have this at all. Workforce plainly wasn't the right price last year and neither was Behkabad. I think it's dangerous to assume the market is efficient when it comes to big races because of all the publicity. There were some amazing examples at the Festival in March of complete ricks - it happens.
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With respect, if this was true then there would be people who are considerably shrewder and richer than you or I taking advantage of these ricks and the market would then realign accordingly. I can think of specific examples where horses go off false prices, but it's in my opinion, and my opinion isn't always correct. I think you'd really struggle to win long-term playing top class racing near to the off.

This is why nearly all bookmakers will very rarely close or restrict a punter who plays at SP, it's incredibly hard to win once the horses are in the stalls, especially in markets as liquid as the Arc.

An interesting debate though and one I'm sure Gearoid and Martin have thoughts on as "industry men".
 
I suspect I'll end up backing the coupled Ballydoyle horses on the PMU, and Snow Fairy wherever she's biggest.
 
Euronymous said:
Leaving our differing opinions on SYT aside I can't have this at all. Workforce plainly wasn't the right price last year and neither was Behkabad. I think it's dangerous to assume the market is efficient when it comes to big races because of all the publicity. There were some amazing examples at the Festival in March of complete ricks - it happens.
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My fingers are still singed after Behkabad last year - he got murdered though
 
As I pointed out earlier, French trained horses habitually improve 7lbs in this race on anything else they've done in the season to date. The very consistent So You Think is likely to reach his plateau once more but I expect Galikova and Meandre to improve past him.

I also think Nakayama Festa, second in the race last year and now given a French-style preparation, is a horse to take seriously. But in fairness there are hardly any in it I would be happy to rule out of contention.
 
Grey said:
As I pointed out earlier, French trained horses habitually improve 7lbs in this race on anything else they've done in the season to date. The very consistent So You Think is likely to reach his plateau once more but I expect Galikova and Meandre to improve past him.

I also think Nakayama Festa, second in the race last year and now given a French-style preparation, is a horse to take seriously. But in fairness there are hardly any in it I would be happy to rule out of contention.
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You are after ruining any chance I had of a decent nights sleep!!:blink:
 
Bar the Bull said:
I think that there is so much hype about So You Think being a hype horse, resulting in the most consistent horse, with the best form being a very tempting 9/2.

Sarafina has looked good and obviously has a lot of potential...but SYT has the form in the book against top notchers. SYT is a nailed on 130 RPR horse.
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He might be, but he has yet to show it over 12f, and it's hardly coincidence that it's took him 17 appearances to actually run over it?
 
Grey said:
As I pointed out earlier, French trained horses habitually improve 7lbs in this race on anything else they've done in the season to date. The very consistent So You Think is likely to reach his plateau once more but I expect Galikova and Meandre to improve past him.
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Is it as high as 7lbs? I'd say closer to 5 (splitting hairs maybe), over the last 10 years at least, but even then its only been good enough to win it half the time. In that time, Sakhee matched his York form to win it, Marienbard found some rather eyebrow-raising improvement from somewhere, Dylan Thomas actually ran below his summer form and won it, ditto Sea The Stars (who won it within himself) and Workforce matched his Epsom performance.
 
So You Think is the most likely winner for me, but I like the Japanese horse Hiruno D'Amour at a nice price. He could easily be placed and has some nice form in the book.

Really, really looking forward to this race.
 
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Is Ryan Moore at Longchamp on Saturday ? he isn't riding in the UK

I would find it slightly alarming that even such a fine jockey as Moore would be riding in the Arc on such a limited preparation.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Is it as high as 7lbs? I'd say closer to 5 (splitting hairs maybe), over the last 10 years at least, but even then its only been good enough to win it half the time. In that time, Sakhee matched his York form to win it, Marienbard found some rather eyebrow-raising improvement from somewhere, Dylan Thomas actually ran below his summer form and won it, ditto Sea The Stars (who won it within himself) and Workforce matched his Epsom performance.
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But that's my point. UK and Irish horses who win this race generally have to have already shown the level of form needed to win the race, while French winners typically come into the race needing to find 5/6/7 lbs.
 
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