Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2011

It wasn't slowly run though, just wasn't run at a million miles an hour. I'd say it was truly run.
 
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Indeed, as it also was for the two horses in the race who beat him and as such, are both rightly shorter in the betting than him.

33s is the right price.
 
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You're still missing the point - Sarafina can accelerate off a slow pace, SNA cannot. SNA will be much, much more suited to the pace of an Arc than the pace of a trial - Sarafina is more adaptable, and hence doesn't have the scope, in terms of variances in pace at least, to improve as much from the Foy to the Arc (not saying this affects her chances in the slightest, more a positive for SNA).
 
As I say, I'm not even convinced the pace is going to be that quick in the race unless they sacrifice TB or even use SNA as a pacemaker. :lol:
 
Gamla Stan said:
Probably more to do with the fact that SNA won a dire Coronation Cup and has ran two very average races since and Treasure Beach got firmly put in his place by two colts he reopposes in this race.

Surprised about Reliable Man, I think he goes on most ground. It wasn't GS when he won the French Derby and his wins prior to that were certainly the faster side of Good.
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I've taken a bit of the 5/1 on the Champion Stakes.
 
A simple but useful fact to bear in mind is that very few British and Irish trained horses improve on their mid-summer best in the Arc, whilst the French horses habitually improve about 7lbs on theirs.

There have been exceptions, Lammtara was one, but not that many.
 
the only way SNA could win is to actually lead imo

i don't fancy him at all..but if i did..would be happy to see him lead

same with MM..no chance for me unless bowled along..these aren't speed horses..they are plodders who need to gallop the others into submission

Meandre is perfectly prepared for the race and will take all the beating imo
 
EC1 said:
Meandre is perfectly prepared for the race and will take all the beating imo
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You are steadiliy talking me into Meandre, especially as it now seems that Reliable Man (who I prefer) is unlikely to take part. I’m working on a hypothesis of:

1) Galikova
2) Meandre
3) ?

…with Sarafina (or perhaps SYT) third or fourth.
 
What form, or potential even, does Meandre that makes him an Arc winner? He may as well be 40/1, no chance. He only won the GP de Paris because Reliable man had an off day, and the 2 AOB horses ran off much too fast.
 
Hamm said:
What form, or potential even, does Meandre that makes him an Arc winner? He may as well be 40/1, no chance. He only won the GP de Paris because Reliable man had an off day, and the 2 AOB horses ran off much too fast.
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behave yersen or i won't post as you anymore ;)

no chance eh?

interesting view young man

none at all is that?
 
No, he has a chance - somewhere between 25 and 40/1.

I'm, as always, open to an argument why he does have a chance. It just doesn't add up (his chance v odds).
 
Hamm said:
He only won the GP de Paris because Reliable man had an off day, and the 2 AOB horses ran off much too fast.
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The three year old colt form worries me hugely but I think it's more of a case that Reliable Man only beat Meandre because he had an off day. Meandre didn't have the ground or pace he wanted in the Niel, wasn't fit and the yard had a virus.

I'm on him at 100/1 so I don't give a monkeys really, I have a value bet but I wouldn't be backing him at 12s now, I make him a 10/1 shot. I will happily take some 25s off you though or take Evens in a match bet with SNA? :D
 
What has Bubble chic got to do with it? He clearly ran below form. Or are Seville and TB genuine Arc horses as well?
 
Gamla Stan said:
The three year old colt form worries me hugely but I think it's more of a case that Reliable Man only beat Meandre because he had an off day. Meandre didn't have the ground or pace he wanted in the Niel, wasn't fit and the yard had a virus.

I'm on him at 100/1 so I don't give a monkeys really, I have a value bet but I wouldn't be backing him at 12s now, I make him a 10/1 shot. I will happily take some 25s off you though or take Evens in a match bet with SNA? :D
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Why would I take evens when any match bet with the 2 will have SNA 7/4 or bigger?

SNA has much better form than Meandre, is much more likely to improve from Arc conditions, yet is 3 times the price.
 
SNA is only rated 2lbs better than Meandre on RPRs and I'd argue that 125 in the Coronation is bloody generous unless Clowance is really a 117 horse. They are both about the right price.

The only horse I'd still back now is Hiruno D'Amour at 16s, I can't see any other value in the race at all having just priced it up myself.

Think Reliable Man is going to be a NR, 30 on Betfair now.
 
Gamla Stan said:
SNA is only rated 2lbs better than Meandre on RPRs and I'd argue that 125 in the Coronation is bloody generous unless Clowance is really a 117 horse. They are both about the right price.
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Not saying you gave that rating, but how on earth is Meandre rated 123?!! I think Seville is, at best, a 118 horse, so how does a length beating of him after seville had even gone too quick, justify 123?

This is the danger of rating races using race standardisation... (something I believe Timeform use a lot).
 
EC1 said:
how do you know he ran below form?

you are letting Seville dominate your thinking too much
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Or Treasure Beach. Watch the GP de Paris again, and then come back and tell me the 2 AOB horses didn't go too quick..
 
I'm not convinced Meandre has a huge amount in him either EC, he's just obviously better than the Niel run.

The WTB also rate Meandre's GP De Paris on 123 and Coronation on 122. Don't want to get bogged down into a boring debate on ratings but I'd agree with this over the RP's assessment of the two races.
 
The problem with 3yo's having such a gangbuster record in the race is the tendancy one has to fall for really shit ones. Zambezi Sun, Prospect Park and Soldier of Fortune were all ropey ones who started well under 10/1.
 
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