Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2011

Here's the draw:

1 Hirono D'Amour
2 Danedream
3 Testosterone
4 Galikova
5 Masked Marvel
6 St Nicholas Abbey
7 Reliable Man
8 Workforce
9 Sherata
10 Meandre
11 Snow Fairy
12 Treasure Beach
13 Sarafina
14 So You Think
15 Silver Pond
16 Nakayama Festa

Not good for fans of the favourites. Masked Marvel, Galikova or Workforce are the most likely winners now for me. According to the sportinglife only 2 horses drawn in double figures have placed in the last 7 Arc's.
 
Simon said:
What do you think to the idea that Meandre had 'Faster closing sections than Pour Moi in the Prix Grefulhe, both run off a fast pace.' I presume the Pour Moi reference is from the Derby. I think Meandre's time in the race in question was very impressive and he of course went on and won the Grand Prix De Paris on the back of that.

I'm not saying I fancy Meandre, I'm not fussed about him either way, I fancy the Japanese horse, Hiruno D'Amour.
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I didn;t know that but I know that Fabre rarely talks horses up but was very bullish about Pour Moi so, based on that, I'm working on the assumption Pour Moi was his Arc horse. Meandre is clearly a decent horse who thrives over middles distances but he's been beaten too often for me and i'm not sure he has the class.
 
Aragorn said:
Not good for fans of the favourites. Masked Marvel, Galikova or Workforce are the most likely winners now for me. According to the sportinglife only 2 horses drawn in double figures have placed in the last 7 Arc's.
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That is a frightening stat!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:(:(
 
Prufrock has some draw analysis for Arc you might interesting. Percentage of rivals beaten in Arc last 10 years by draw: 1 to 4, 55.1%; 5 to 8, 49.0%; 9 to 12, 44.9%; 13 to 16 47.5%.
 
When you go to Longchamp it becomes much more obvious how much of an effect the draw has, particularly in bigger fields.

Those stats don;t surprise me and will influence my bets.
 
That Sporting Life "stat" is a piece of shit and should be completely ignored. There may be a disadvantage to being drawn wide, but there is no way that looking up how many places have gone to those drawn 10 and above over the last 7 years would prove it. Particularly when one of those years only had 8 bloody runners!
 
"We walked the track this morning and it is on the easy side of good. They put 10 millimetres on, so from that point of view we are fairly happy.

Depending on what the weather does they will consider putting more on and review the situation on Saturday night, and I'm hopeful of a happy outcome."

Teddy Grimthorpe, (ATR website).
 
Sarafina has a very good draw, Lemaire will have it easier not to do one of his stupid rides of this year,
 
Gareth Flynn said:
That Sporting Life "stat" is a piece of shit and should be completely ignored. There may be a disadvantage to being drawn wide, but there is no way that looking up how many places have gone to those drawn 10 and above over the last 7 years would prove it. Particularly when one of those years only had 8 bloody runners!
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Do you disagree that a wide draw is a disadvantage?
 
reet hard said:
"We walked the track this morning and it is on the easy side of good. They put 10 millimetres on, so from that point of view we are fairly happy.

Depending on what the weather does they will consider putting more on and review the situation on Saturday night, and I'm hopeful of a happy outcome."

Teddy Grimthorpe, (ATR website).
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Good news & will hopefully get a run for my money
 
I think that So You Think will stay a mile and a half, I don't see that as a problem. I'd expect that Masked Marvel will ensure a good gallop so hopefully So You Think's lack of instant acceleration is less like to be exposed.
 
davidjohnson said:
Prufrock has some draw analysis for Arc you might interesting. Percentage of rivals beaten in Arc last 10 years by draw: 1 to 4, 55.1%; 5 to 8, 49.0%; 9 to 12, 44.9%; 13 to 16 47.5%.
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Now this is interesting analysis. Much better than the Sporting Life statistic. It would suggest that a 5/1 (6.0) shot before the draw should be priced:

Drawn 1-4: 5.4
Drawn 5-8: 6.1
Drawn 9-12: 6.7
Drawn 13-16: 6.3

But some years (2009 and 2010) a horse drawn 11 was drawn in the middle. In 2007 it would have been a wide draw.

It would be more informative (but too hard, probably) to analyse this based on the distance in stalls to the left of the right from the middle stall. I suspect that Prufrock’s analysis might over-estimate the disadvantage of being drawn 9-12, and therefore slightly underestimate the advantage of being drawn 13-16.

Either way, it suggests that a horse’s price shouldn’t move a huge amount based on the draw, but that (as we suspected), low is good.

I am not scared.
 
Aragorn said:
Do you disagree that a wide draw is a disadvantage?
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Whether I do or not doesn't make that "stat" any better. I'd hate to think anyone reading that would let it influence their betting.

As for the actual numbers, there's draw data for 22 of the last 23 Arcs on the RP website.

In that time, those drawn 1-9 have beaten 51.6% of their rivals. Those drawn 10+ have beaten 48.2% of their rivals. However, the margin of error (95% confidence) is around 1.8%, so it's not quite statistically significant.

This is well illustrated by the fact that horses drawn in odd-numbered stalls have beaten 51.8% of their rivals, and those in even stalls 48.2% - almost identical. Would you let an odd or even draw influence your betting?

(There may be more significant effects to be found within the data, but since the Sporting Life "stat" arbitrarily picked stall 10 as being the edge of the world, I thought I'd stick with that).
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Whether I do or not doesn't make that "stat" any better. I'd hate to think anyone reading that would let it influence their betting.

As for the actual numbers, there's draw data for 22 of the last 23 Arcs on the RP website.

In that time, those drawn 1-9 have beaten 51.6% of their rivals. Those drawn 10+ have beaten 48.2% of their rivals. However, the margin of error (95% confidence) is around 1.8%, so it's not quite statistically significant.

This is well illustrated by the fact that horses drawn in odd-numbered stalls have beaten 51.8% of their rivals, and those in even stalls 48.2% - almost identical. Would you let an odd or even draw influence your betting?

(There may be more significant effects to be found within the data, but since the Sporting Life "stat" arbitrarily picked stall 10 as being the edge of the world, I thought I'd stick with that).
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Fair play Gareth - Re-framed it is less significant.

The track definitely favours those drawn lower though. That's not statistics however, just my opinion!!

It would be interesting to look at it from the perspective of those who finished in the first three rather than one side of the draw beating the other.
 
Aragorn said:
It would be interesting to look at it from the perspective of those who finished in the first three rather than one side of the draw beating the other.
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Over the same period, if everything else was equal (over a big enough sample it should be more or less), you would expect there to have been around 28 placed horses drawn 10 or above. There was 23.

However, you would also have expected there to be around 32 from even numbers, but there was only 27.
 
I've taken into account that some years there are more odd number draws then even, if that's what you mean?
 
For what its worth, I haven't taken into account non-runners, as there's only been 3 in that time (all odd draws, funnily enough), but I don't know if when there's a non-runner, the handlers keep the horses in their assigned draw or bump them all up by one!
 
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