Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2011

Gareth Flynn said:
Over the same period, if everything else was equal (over a big enough sample it should be more or less), you would expect there to have been around 28 placed horses drawn 10 or above. There was 23.

However, you would also have expected there to be around 32 from even numbers, but there was only 27.
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What about those drawn lower than 10?
 
Not having a stats cell in my head, but ...

Doesn't the best indicator of probable winning - the SP - need to be fitted across the draw numbers to give a measure ..?

Then again, the SP would allow for a bad draw ... so there you go.
 
Soary Stars said:
Not having a stats cell in my head, but ...

Doesn't the best indicator of probable winning - the SP - need to be fitted across the draw numbers to give a measure ..?

Then again, the SP would allow for a bad draw ... so there you go.
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Yeah, there's a case for taking that into account. Over a big enough sample of random draws, it shouldn't make a difference, but given what we have it would be interesting.

There are problems, though - as you say, the draw might be factored into the price, and you also have to adjust for overround. You could avoid the latter by using the PMU prices, but then would the French runners chances be over-estimated (and vice versa if you used UK industry SPs)?
 
Soary Stars said:
Not having a stats cell in my head, but ...

Doesn't the best indicator of probable winning - the SP - need to be fitted across the draw numbers to give a measure ..?

Then again, the SP would allow for a bad draw ... so there you go.
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There hasn't been half enough analysis done on the draw here IMHO - what about the effects of wind and the forecasted wind for Sunday afternoon, grass height and direction in which it is cut, has any though been put into the temperaure differential between stall 1 and 16 - 16 must be closer to the equator thus warmer and the air less dense. Ill take back my earlier comments - this is all a bit amateur night in reality....:D
 
Hamm said:
Treasure Beach will be right up there. They may do this as well with SNA, but it will be for his benefit if they do, not for their other horses.

In terms of viable stallions, SNA I would think is of much more interest to them than TB (when they start running their horses a la the campaign he has had, you know they aren't thinking about stallion value).
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TB is of interest, imo, to stand in the US - Ashford don't have a son of Galileo and either he or Cape Blanco would fit the roster nicely.
 
Aragorn said:
So 43 of the 66 of the placed horses were drawn 10 or lower?

Is that a significant stat?
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43 of the 66 were drawn lower than 10, but you would expect there to have been just over 38 placed horses from that draw given the field sizes over the years.

Comparing to the even/odd draws, there were 39 placed horses drawn odd from an expectation just under 34. So an extra 5 appears to be within the bounds of random chance given the sample size.
 
You shouldn't take the SP into account, just increase the data size. The SP will already include the draw.

Gareth, would you be able to do it for distance to the left or right from centre of the stalls? So in a 15 runner field, trap 2 would be -6, trap 10 would be +2.

As I mentioned above, stall 8 means something very different in a 19 runner field than a 10 runner field.
 
Miesque said:
TB is of interest, imo, to stand in the US - Ashford don't have a son of Galileo and either he or Cape Blanco would fit the roster nicely.
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An Irish Derby winner, beaten a neck in the Derby that has also won a Grade 1 in the US. They’ll find him a decent slot no doubt.
 
Bar the Bull said:
Sakhee was drawn in the carpark when he won.
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I think a wide draw is less of a disadvantage when it is very soft as the slower pace enables a horse to get a better position whilst using less effort than off a fast clip on faster ground. Also Sahkee had the advantage of being one of the few that acted on that ground and no Galileo in the field .
 
Bar the Bull said:
You shouldn't take the SP into account, just increase the data size. The SP will already include the draw.

Gareth, would you be able to do it for distance to the left or right from centre of the stalls? So in a 15 runner field, trap 2 would be -6, trap 10 would be +2.

As I mentioned above, stall 8 means something very different in a 19 runner field than a 10 runner field.
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You could just split each year into 3rds..it would give a similar result to what Bar is asking i think
 
split in 3rds..if not equally splittable then added one to low third then middle

the first 3 placings since 2000

low 3rd = 15
middle 3rd = 10
high 3rd = 8

seems to suggest that being high isn't an advantage..allow for fact that some years low and middle had extra runner
 
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I see ladbrokes are paying double the SP on the Arc winner if you use your mobile phone app to back it! Makes ante post betting a nonsense in the last couple of weeks before a race
 
Gamla Stan said:
Also, Meandre didn't run in the Prix Grefulhe so not sure where his quicker sectionals came from!!
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Sorry, Meandre's sections were in the Prix L'Avre. Pour Moi's were in the Prix Greuffhle. Meandre's last 300m were quicker than Pour Moi's by about 1.2secs and Saint Cloud was riding slightly faster than Longhchamp was on the respective days. Also, the Prix D'Ispan was run on the same day as the Prix L'Avre but despite the extra distance and more weight, Meandre ran a closing 300m which was only 0.22 slower than Goldikova. She broke standard by 2.00 seconds too. Add to this the fact that Galikova ran in the Prix Cleopatre on the same card as the Prix Greffulhe and ran faster closing sections than Pour Moi but was still 0.7 slower than Meandre and all four races were run in genuine Group 1 times.
 
Bar the Bull said:
You shouldn't take the SP into account, just increase the data size. The SP will already include the draw.

Gareth, would you be able to do it for distance to the left or right from centre of the stalls? So in a 15 runner field, trap 2 would be -6, trap 10 would be +2.

As I mentioned above, stall 8 means something very different in a 19 runner field than a 10 runner field.
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Looks something like this:

image002.png


The red line is a linear regression. Flat as a pancake.
 
I see the 9/4 about Sarafina never came to fruition, she's 5/1 in a place now. So You Think will start favourite in the UK I would think.
 
Way, way too much being made of the draw. I may go in again on her and attempt to lay off IR.


I think 8.8 on the machine about SNA placing is a great price.
 
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