The key here is "improving" 3yo fillies. Most 3yos have run their season by Arc time. Not so with Sarafina last year or Galikova this. 11lb is a huge advantage in such circumstances at this time of year when the three-year-olds have gone some way in shortening the gap on the older horses in terms of strength and maturity.
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2011
- Thread starter Gamla Stan
- Start date
The key here is "improving" 3yo fillies. Most 3yos have run their season by Arc time. Not so with Sarafina last year or Galikova this. 11lb is a huge advantage in such circumstances at this time of year when the three-year-olds have gone some way in shortening the gap on the older horses in terms of strength and maturity.
But I still don't see the argument?! Just saying it benefits them excessively isn't an argument, just a point - interested as to why you feel this is so, and whether the rest of us should be taking note of it, or ignoring it.
crazyhorse
At the Start
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
It is mental that SYT is almost four points shorter on Betfair than last year's winner. The Aussie horse is this year's Deep Impact.
simmo
Senior Jockey
Why would that not carry into the 20 years previous to that? I don't think the WFA scale has been changed in that time has it?
Given the propensity of owners to retire the best horses at the end of their 3yo season at that time (far greater than now) I would have expected it to be even more pronounced over the 70's & 80's if it was WFA and not some other factor that was the cause.
EC1
On a break
does anyone know the number of previous winners who tried to win it the following year.. in the last 20 years..and how many did win?
i'm just being idle..but if anyone has a databse it would save me time
i'm just being idle..but if anyone has a databse it would save me time
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Carnegie - nowhere
Helissio - nowhere
Montjeu - 4th
Bago - 3rd
Hurricane Run - 4th
Not many, and of those only Bago ran to a similar level.
Helissio - nowhere
Montjeu - 4th
Bago - 3rd
Hurricane Run - 4th
Not many, and of those only Bago ran to a similar level.
It does though, of the 89 winners since 1920 the majority, 56 (63%) have been 3yos. As in absolute terms 3yos are inferior to the older horse the fact that they win more often is plainly wrong at championship level.
does anyone know the number of previous winners who tried to win it the following year.. in the last 20 years..and how many did win?
i'm just being idle..but if anyone has a databse it would save me time
It takes an outstanding horse to do this. Workforce may be such a horse. Sarafina went close last year and was a little unlucky, she could win. But the 3yos have a clear edge, and that's not right.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
The 3yo's the tend to win this race are prepared better for it. Time and again you'll see them beat older horses who have been on the go all summer long. I don't think Hurricane Run was a better animal than either Westerner or Bago but his freshness made all the difference - not the wfa scale.
You see I don't think they are better prepared. Most of the good ones have run their season before they get to the Arc. However if you do go to the Arc with an improving decent 3yo the WFA scale give you a clear advantage.
All things being equal in relative terms (which of course it never is) think how much better Workforce and Sarafina have to run this year to finish where they did last year.
Soary Stars
At the Start
- Joined
- Jun 7, 2011
- Messages
- 648
Champion Stakes also in October is a wfa race.
Since 1967, winners:
3yo: 27
4yo: 11
5yo: 4
6yo: 1
but how many of each age group ran altogether? that matters.
I dunno, these figures are from wikipedia, not a data-base.
Since 1967, winners:
3yo: 27
4yo: 11
5yo: 4
6yo: 1
but how many of each age group ran altogether? that matters.
I dunno, these figures are from wikipedia, not a data-base.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Two things:
1 - The 3yo's aren't up to much this year so that might now be the cae.
2 - Marienbard.
The figures will be completely skewed because the majority of top class 3yos have historically being retired at the end of their 3yo season, meaning the 4 year olds don't represent the best of last year's generation, whereas obviously the 3yos have their best representatives still in racing. For example, would Workforce have won, even with WFA, had Sea the Stars been in training? Doubtful.
davidjohnson
At the Start
- Joined
- Jun 29, 2007
- Messages
- 3,434
Would Sea The Stars have been as good at 4? The ratings of both Rip Van Winkle and Fame And Glory, whose 3-y-o form tied in very closely with that of Sea The Stars suggests that either they weren't as good as 4-y-os, or heaven forbid, we all got a little carried away with the merit of Sea The Stars if not his toughness and durability.
Heretic!
davidjohnson
At the Start
- Joined
- Jun 29, 2007
- Messages
- 3,434
and was beaten 3l into second. :lol:
Indeed the older horses this year look strong, so it might not be the case. But the 3yos could well be good enough... the point is that the 3yos are handed an advantage that allows them to win despite not always being the best in the race.
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Is this an opinion or do you have evidence for this? I strongly don't think it can be put the way you are putting it..
Might not be so clear if you look at the race times, DJ?
He won the McKinnon in under 2m 5secs, and the Cox Plate (off a slow early pace) in just 2m 7.45. Our nearest comparison would be Chester's 10f - just 31 yards longer than Moonee's, with a standard time of 2m 9s.
Australian good to soft equates somewhere between our rock and a hard place.